Chase De Jong

[DrungoHazewood]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We can spend a lot of time using the very limited information we have trying to determine whether some other team’s 41st guy is better or has more potential than our 40th guy, or better meets the needs of our 40-man roster for some reason.    Personally, I’m just going to leave that up to Elias & co., who have much more detailed information on these guys than we do.   I really couldn’t tell you if De Jong would be better for us than Hart or Wright or whoever, or who would be better between Cecchini, Reinheimer or Valera for a utility infield spot.   I’m not going to go as far as saying it’s like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but I just don’t feel like I’m qualified to intelligently comment on decisions this obscure.   

At our level of information and exposure the error bars around our judgements are much greater than the difference in ability between De Jong and Mike Wright.  There are a thousand guys who roughly can be described as Grade C prospects with 45 stuff.  Elias is trying to tease out whether somebody has some attribute that might one day make him something of an asset.  Most of the time it is deck chairs on the Titanic - if De Jong is 5% better than Donnie Hart that has no real impact on anything.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There are different levels of talent and ability and experience among AA players.  They're not just clones of one another.

Considering that to get a decent starter from the FA market for a team that is projected to lose 100 games the O's would have to out bid other teams and they aren't like to do that.  Which means acquiring a good starter through FA is  going to be very hard to do.  

And that the fifth starter spot is current  a competition between Ramirez,  Means, Rogers and Yacabonis.  I think De Jong looks a good as any of those starters.    I see Akin, Kremer and Ortiz beginning in the minors since they haven't pitch much or at all at AAA.

Elias said a Fanfest that the team biggest need to be add pitching.   How he does that will be interesting to see happen.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At our level of information and exposure the error bars around our judgements are much greater than the difference in ability between De Jong and Mike Wright.  There are a thousand guys who roughly can be described as Grade C prospects with 45 stuff.  Elias is trying to tease out whether somebody has some attribute that might one day make him something of an asset.  Most of the time it is deck chairs on the Titanic - if De Jong is 5% better than Donnie Hart that has no real impact on anything.

Sure it does.  De Jong can be sent up and down to Norfolk without waivers.  Hart can't.   De Jong is a starter which should be seen as more valuable than a reliever for similar quality like Hart.

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sure it does.  De Jong can be sent up and down to Norfolk without waivers.  Hart can't.   De Jong is a starter which should be seen as more valuable than a reliever for similar quality like Hart.

There are a lot of pitchers who could give us a 5-something ERA as a starter.  I suppose you're right that it's convienent to have one with options so nobody has to scour the waiver wire quite so much as they're shuttled back and forth.  As far as wins it doesn't mean anything.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There are a lot of pitchers who could give us a 5-something ERA as a starter.  I suppose you're right that it's convienent to have one with options so nobody has to scour the waiver wire quite so much as they're shuttled back and forth.  As far as wins it doesn't mean anything.

Elias say wins are not the goal.  Improving the talent in the organization is this season.     De Jong had 9 starts above  AA last year.    He had a 3.20 ERA at AAA and a 3.57 ERA in the majors.  That is better than any of the 5th starter candidates the O's have at the moment.   He would improve the talent that O's have and the depth of starting pitching.  And the cost is low if  DFAing Hart is what has to be done.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias say wins are not the goal.  Improving the talent in the organization is this season.     De Jong had 9 starts above  AA last year.    He had a 3.20 ERA at AAA and a 3.57 ERA in the majors.  That is better than any of the 5th starter candidates the O's have at the moment.   He would improve the talent that O's have and the depth of starting pitching.  And the cost is low if  DFAing Hart is what has to be done.

Awfully small 2018 sample to be making the conclusion that adding De Jong would improve the talent. We’ll see if Elias agrees.

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias say wins are not the goal.  Improving the talent in the organization is this season.     De Jong had 9 starts above  AA last year.    He had a 3.20 ERA at AAA and a 3.57 ERA in the majors.  That is better than any of the 5th starter candidates the O's have at the moment.   He would improve the talent that O's have and the depth of starting pitching.  And the cost is low if  DFAing Hart is what has to be done.

Who cares what his ERA was in nine starts?  What are his skills and talents?  What are the underlying metrics?  We don't know all of that, but we know he doesn't strike many guys out, he doesn't impress our local scout with stuff or the radar gun, he gives up a fair number of homers, and he was sent to AA after being tried out in the majors.

If he turns out to be an improvement over what the Orioles currently have, great.  But based on available information he probably isn't, and even if he is it's very incremental.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Who cares what his ERA was in nine starts?  What are his skills and talents?  What are the underlying metrics?  We don't know all of that, but we know he doesn't strike many guys out, he doesn't impress our local scout with stuff or the radar gun, he gives up a fair number of homers, and he was sent to AA after being tried out in the majors.

If he turns out to be an improvement over what the Orioles currently have, great.  But based on available information he probably isn't, and even if he is it's very incremental.

The comparison is De Jong to Donnie Hart.   That includes both players contract situation.  I would take De  Jong because of age and options.   He can still develop at AAA.

[Tx Oriole]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The comparison is De Jong to Donnie Hart.   That includes both players contract situation.  I would take De  Jong because of age and options.   He can still develop at AAA.

Sorry Wildcard. I disagree with you.

[AceKing]

We can probably claim DeJong, drop Hart, who will pass through waivers, and we get to keep both of them...

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Or on a more simplistic level, I don't see Elias valuing someone who pitched most of his age 24 season in AA averaging 6.6 K/9.

But what is De Jong’s spin rate?  

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

But what is De Jong’s spin rate?  

Lackluster.

[Tony-OH]

Baseball Savant's scouting report on him:

Quote

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 55 | Cutter: 45 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45
De Jong compensates for a lack of stuff by showing good feel for a four-pitch mix. His curveball is his lone above-average pitch, and he throws it good downer action. His four-seam fastball has below-average velocity, usually sitting at 88-92 mph, but it tends to play up thanks to the extension in his delivery. He also mixes in a fringy cutter and changeup.

De Jong's delivery gives him some deception without detracting from his ability to throw strikes. But as an extreme fly-ball pitcher he relies heavily on location, in turn giving him little margin for error and a concerning penchant for allowing home runs. While he doesn't have a high ceiling, De Jong could prove to be a solid swingman or long reliever at the highest level.

He has 9th percentile velocity, 45th  percentile spin rate on his fastball. His fastball was mashed in his limited work last year. So an extreme fly ball pitcher with a 40 fastball is probably not a great fit for Camden Yards.

Looking through his visualization report, nothing jumps out at me as saying any of his offspeed pitches can overcome a well below average and hittable fastball. Based off his major league analytics, which come under a small sample size, I'd recommend the Orioles pass. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Sorry Wildcard. I disagree with you.

Ok, let me heard your plan.   Elias says the O's do not have enough pitching.  They have a lot of relievers or 5th starters that can act as relievers.   But not that many starters.   How are they going to get more starters?

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Baseball Savant's scouting report on him:

He has 9th percentile velocity, 45th  percentile spin rate on his fastball. His fastball was mashed in his limited work last year. So an extreme fly ball pitcher with a 40 fastball is probably not a great fit for Camden Yards.

Looking through his visualization report, nothing jumps out at me as saying any of his offspeed pitches can overcome a well below average and hittable fastball. Based off his major league analytics, which come under a small sample size, I'd recommend the Orioles pass. 

Sound like a 5th starter.  Are Ramirez, Rogers, Means or Yacabonis going to grade any better as starters?  All 5 of them have options.