O's 2019: How To Exceed Expectations?

[MASNPalmer]

- Pendulum has swung too far; Pythag backs this up with 8 win improvement at true talent level getting you to 55 wins right there

- Tanking is in vogue around baseball; everyone points to the Astros blueprint and Elias/Sig's background but while history rhymes it doesn't repeat. This will not be a 3-5 year tank, particularly as...

- The farm system, while lacking true upside, is actually very deep and not the bottom 3 system most baseball fans lazily assume. Fangraphs ranked is at #20 while Baseball America gave the O's 3 top 100 prospects -- this is all before new leadership drafts #1 overall and adds International Talent. Right there is your infusion of top talent. By this time next year it should be a top 10 system in the game.

- Back to the bigs, Cobb's 2H ERA of 2.56 and 1.15 WHIP (backed by uptick in usage of splitter) and Dylan Bundy taking the next step (9.6 K/9 last year, 7.11 ERA 2H last year as he wore down behind terrible defense) gives pitching stability at the top with better ...

- Defense, as last year's team D ranked 29th in the league (Fangraphs) thanks to 1) Adam Jones in CF, Machado at SS, 3) Beckham at 3B, 4) Mancini/Trumbo in the corner OF spots. That's brutal as all are significantly below average at those respective positions, all of which are replaced by younger and more athletic players.

- Doubtful Chris Davis gets nearly 500 ABs again; and if he does, he's in the midst of a rebound season.

This team is still terrible. And no where close to a playoff roster ready to compete late into October. But there's pieces, depth, and some more athleticism, combined with a regression to mean, means they won't be the worst team next year and (presumably) not a historical bad team. A lot can change in baseball year over year. No one thought the 2011 Orioles were going to the playoffs in 2012, either.

Give it some time, but don't think 2019 will not be a complete dumpster fire like 2018. A 62 win season = 15 win improvement (8 from Pythag, 7 from aforementioned reasons) = still 100 losses but arrow in right direction and reasonable. And at 100 losses, I think most would qualify that as "outperform"

[RVAOsFan]

I could care less whether we win 50,60 or 70 games this year. The expectations I want to see exceeded this season are individual. In particular young guys under team control for the next several years. 

Hunter Harvey stays heathy and dominates. Hayes picks up where he left off in 2017. Mullins wins rookie of the year. 

Im completely okay picking first two years in a row if we have young guys taking big steps forward to making Orioles a contender in a few years.

[sportsfan8703]

This season is about giving MLB PT to the younger players and not having to rush the “prospects” to the MLB. I would consider this season a success if some of the young guys emerged, and the vets performed well enough to have selloff 2.0. 

The crazy thing is if things go accordingly we could actually be in a “worse” position W/L wise to start 2020. Imagine a 2020 with no Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Karns, Givens, Castro, Bleier, Trumbo or Villar. However, with the prospects from selloff 2.0,  and two drafts with the top drafting position each round, we should have one of the top farm systems in baseball.