Manny signs with Padres

[atomic]

1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:

 But what about what was being reported about the total valuation of the whitesox offer reaching 350mill which exceeds the total value of the Padres offer. Its a tough sell and probably impossible  to sell as being an overall better deal especially when every single dollar of the 300mill is gauranteed and not a penny is deferred with the Padres contract. That would have to be one heck of a sell on the whitesox part.

$70 million of the White Sox offer is based on him getting 550 plate appearances.  If he plays poorly in the later years of his contract he would never see that $70 million.  They could just make sure he doesn't get 550 plate appearances.  If he is injured he doesn't get that money. 

If he plays great through season 5 of Padres deal he can opt out and get a huge deal.  I don't see how the White Sox deal has much chance of being better. 

[jrobb21613]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

$70 million of the White Sox offer is based on him getting 550 plate appearances.  If he plays poorly in the later years of his contract he would never see that $70 million.  They could just make sure he doesn't get 550 plate appearances.  If he is injured he doesn't get that money. 

If he plays great through season 5 of Padres deal he can opt out and get a huge deal.  I don't see how the White Sox deal has much chance of being better. 

Mannys agent did one heck of a great job getting him the deal he got with the Padres!

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

50 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Mannys agent did one heck of a great job getting him the deal he got with the Padres!

Idk. I think if Manny plays 3rd as reported, he could and maybe even should be well worth the contract he just signed. As long as he stays motivated. Yes, good on the agent to get that deal as there wasn't one that quite compared. But there was some competition and the Padres got a superstar at the age of 26. And he's now willing to go back to the position he could be a HOFer at. 

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, atomic said:

If he plays great through season 5 of Padres deal he can opt out and get a huge deal.

I think the opt out is a lot of nothing.  With GMs finally awakening to the idea that players decline when they get old it's unlikely he's going to do better at 31 than he did at 26.  I think we've seen the end of 10-year deals lasting into a player's 40s.  

[Frobby]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the opt out is a lot of nothing.  With GMs finally awakening to the idea that players decline when they get old it's unlikely he's going to do better at 31 than he did at 26.  I think we've seen the end of 10-year deals lasting into a player's 40s.  

Depends on what the market is five years from now.    Let’s say it’s gone up to $10 mm per WAR and Manny is coming off a banner season.    Or, let’s say the Marlins are a playoff caliber team with a low payroll.    Or, the Yankees have an urgent need at 3B.   It’s anyone’s guess whether circumstances would lead Manny to want to opt out five years from now.   

[TonySoprano]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the opt out is a lot of nothing.  With GMs finally awakening to the idea that players decline when they get old it's unlikely he's going to do better at 31 than he did at 26.  I think we've seen the end of 10-year deals lasting into a player's 40s.  

As a few analysts on MLB pointed out yesterday,  after his 10 year deal is done, Machado will still be younger than Cano was half-way through his 10 year deal.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Idk. I think if Manny plays 3rd as reported, he could be well worth the contract he just signed. As long as he stays motivated.

At current rates $300M is 37.5 wins.  Probably 25-30 wins after inflation.  There have been 41 players worth 25+ wins through age 25.  Their median value from 26-35 is about 50 wins.   Manny has a very good shot at earning his deal.

                                                                                                         
Rk                 Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB IBB   SO
1               Babe Ruth   100.7 1921 1930 26-35 1402 6283 4944 1357 1748 306  82 462 1356     1226  776
2             Willie Mays    96.9 1957 1966 26-35 1547 6640 5832 1177 1832 302  79 390 1093  733 118  715
3              Hank Aaron    81.0 1960 1969 26-35 1540 6661 5912 1091 1819 309  45 375 1107  672 160  723
4              Lou Gehrig    81.0 1929 1938 26-35 1543 7001 5780 1382 1964 360 101 382 1484     1145  506
5          Rogers Hornsby    78.3 1922 1931 26-35 1269 5599 4731 1047 1782 359  79 238 1041      701  368
6             Stan Musial    75.6 1947 1956 26-35 1533 6840 5861 1141 1969 387  98 300 1113  910 161  350
7            Tris Speaker    74.9 1914 1923 26-35 1425 6199 5210 1019 1836 434 116  49  805      779  145
8                 Ty Cobb    70.5 1913 1922 26-35 1285 5641 4848  986 1831 308 141  42  789      620  283
9        Rickey Henderson    64.7 1985 1994 26-35 1289 5774 4740 1066 1366 235  27 175  533  958  32  619
10          Eddie Collins    63.9 1913 1922 26-35 1449 6424 5264  969 1720 205 110  21  666      825  233
11                Mel Ott    60.2 1935 1944 26-35 1424 6083 4984  985 1483 240  31 278  931 1007  29  539
12           Ted Williams    59.5 1946 1954 27-35  995 4471 3469  844 1188 241  30 239  872  989 112  290
13         Frank Robinson    58.8 1962 1971 26-35 1441 6110 5182  980 1561 284  34 301  981  766 134  750
14          Eddie Mathews    57.4 1958 1967 26-35 1480 6236 5279  899 1402 207  39 287  859  878  64  953
15          Mickey Mantle    54.9 1958 1967 26-35 1305 5246 4249  856 1232 166  22 311  786  957  84  960
16           George Brett    54.6 1979 1988 26-35 1282 5554 4841  820 1529 319  64 204  878  639 148  400
17            Jimmie Foxx    50.9 1934 1942 26-34 1254 5466 4567  984 1458 250  58 305 1052  871  14  797
18           George Davis    50.9 1897 1906 26-35 1177 4985 4440  689 1336 228  60  28  704      398  317
19              Al Kaline    49.4 1961 1970 26-35 1306 5399 4646  798 1376 242  31 211  775  664  67  491
20           Sam Crawford    49.2 1906 1915 26-35 1512 6554 5871  858 1858 304 185  56  967      486  299
21            Robin Yount    46.7 1982 1991 26-35 1495 6553 5785  950 1725 310  77 168  839  638  68  713
22              Ron Santo    43.5 1966 1974 26-34 1345 5604 4784  705 1321 197  32 205  807  723  58  831
23           Joe DiMaggio    41.6 1941 1950 26-35  934 4074 3579  705 1135 196  69 181  775  469  71  186
24           Johnny Bench    39.7 1974 1983 26-35 1224 4794 4214  587 1126 222   9 210  760  520  67  725
25             Tim Raines    39.0 1986 1995 26-35 1322 5808 4974  861 1461 226  64 107  577  743  98  493
26             Joe Cronin    38.9 1933 1942 26-35 1275 5519 4722  769 1424 334  64 121  898  677   5  460
27   Shoeless Joe Jackson    35.1 1914 1920 26-32  853 3651 3195  499 1081 177 101  36  531      320  132
28        Willie Randolph    33.7 1981 1990 26-35 1261 5500 4673  707 1276 191  20  32  386  703  16  370
29           Arky Vaughan    33.0 1938 1947 26-35  903 3866 3335  582 1016 187  50  35  403  450  20  120
30              Joe Torre    32.1 1967 1976 26-35 1396 5647 5024  636 1493 216  41 139  747  526  97  713
31             Dick Allen    30.7 1968 1977 26-35 1153 4735 4070  674 1145 193  31 239  754  610  88 1010
32            Joe Medwick    26.4 1938 1947 26-35 1176 4717 4392  625 1366 282  48  95  747  282  39  258
33           Sherry Magee    25.3 1911 1919 26-34 1103 4450 3859  560 1107 220  70  55  623      387  323
34         Orlando Cepeda    25.0 1964 1973 26-35 1171 4732 4254  557 1223 216   7 187  697  370  98  620
35         Jimmy Sheckard    22.9 1905 1913 26-34 1230 5288 4262  681 1096 195  61  20  356      758  530
36             Joe Kelley    22.5 1898 1906 26-34 1055 4513 3944  666 1181 179 101  25  603      439  223
37            Jim Fregosi    20.2 1968 1977 26-35 1038 3890 3401  431  863 135  33  84  370  412  35  594
38            Vada Pinson    20.1 1965 1974 26-35 1404 5839 5427  667 1509 255  61 127  618  289  46  653
39            John McGraw    18.6 1899 1907 26-34  369 1550 1160  324  402  40  18   4  103      318   53
40           Cesar Cedeno    17.7 1977 1986 26-35 1036 4007 3575  487  990 215  27  78  453  346  40  432
41         Travis Jackson    16.4 1930 1936 26-32  757 3048 2802  359  799 129  39  54  437      173  266

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/20/2019.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At current rates $300M is 37.5 wins.  Probably 25-30 wins after inflation.  There have been 41 players worth 25+ wins through age 25.  Their median value from 26-35 is about 50 wins.   Manny has a very good shot at earning his deal.

 

                                                                                                         
Rk                 Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB IBB   SO
1               Babe Ruth   100.7 1921 1930 26-35 1402 6283 4944 1357 1748 306  82 462 1356     1226  776
2             Willie Mays    96.9 1957 1966 26-35 1547 6640 5832 1177 1832 302  79 390 1093  733 118  715
3              Hank Aaron    81.0 1960 1969 26-35 1540 6661 5912 1091 1819 309  45 375 1107  672 160  723
4              Lou Gehrig    81.0 1929 1938 26-35 1543 7001 5780 1382 1964 360 101 382 1484     1145  506
5          Rogers Hornsby    78.3 1922 1931 26-35 1269 5599 4731 1047 1782 359  79 238 1041      701  368
6             Stan Musial    75.6 1947 1956 26-35 1533 6840 5861 1141 1969 387  98 300 1113  910 161  350
7            Tris Speaker    74.9 1914 1923 26-35 1425 6199 5210 1019 1836 434 116  49  805      779  145
8                 Ty Cobb    70.5 1913 1922 26-35 1285 5641 4848  986 1831 308 141  42  789      620  283
9        Rickey Henderson    64.7 1985 1994 26-35 1289 5774 4740 1066 1366 235  27 175  533  958  32  619
10          Eddie Collins    63.9 1913 1922 26-35 1449 6424 5264  969 1720 205 110  21  666      825  233
11                Mel Ott    60.2 1935 1944 26-35 1424 6083 4984  985 1483 240  31 278  931 1007  29  539
12           Ted Williams    59.5 1946 1954 27-35  995 4471 3469  844 1188 241  30 239  872  989 112  290
13         Frank Robinson    58.8 1962 1971 26-35 1441 6110 5182  980 1561 284  34 301  981  766 134  750
14          Eddie Mathews    57.4 1958 1967 26-35 1480 6236 5279  899 1402 207  39 287  859  878  64  953
15          Mickey Mantle    54.9 1958 1967 26-35 1305 5246 4249  856 1232 166  22 311  786  957  84  960
16           George Brett    54.6 1979 1988 26-35 1282 5554 4841  820 1529 319  64 204  878  639 148  400
17            Jimmie Foxx    50.9 1934 1942 26-34 1254 5466 4567  984 1458 250  58 305 1052  871  14  797
18           George Davis    50.9 1897 1906 26-35 1177 4985 4440  689 1336 228  60  28  704      398  317
19              Al Kaline    49.4 1961 1970 26-35 1306 5399 4646  798 1376 242  31 211  775  664  67  491
20           Sam Crawford    49.2 1906 1915 26-35 1512 6554 5871  858 1858 304 185  56  967      486  299
21            Robin Yount    46.7 1982 1991 26-35 1495 6553 5785  950 1725 310  77 168  839  638  68  713
22              Ron Santo    43.5 1966 1974 26-34 1345 5604 4784  705 1321 197  32 205  807  723  58  831
23           Joe DiMaggio    41.6 1941 1950 26-35  934 4074 3579  705 1135 196  69 181  775  469  71  186
24           Johnny Bench    39.7 1974 1983 26-35 1224 4794 4214  587 1126 222   9 210  760  520  67  725
25             Tim Raines    39.0 1986 1995 26-35 1322 5808 4974  861 1461 226  64 107  577  743  98  493
26             Joe Cronin    38.9 1933 1942 26-35 1275 5519 4722  769 1424 334  64 121  898  677   5  460
27   Shoeless Joe Jackson    35.1 1914 1920 26-32  853 3651 3195  499 1081 177 101  36  531      320  132
28        Willie Randolph    33.7 1981 1990 26-35 1261 5500 4673  707 1276 191  20  32  386  703  16  370
29           Arky Vaughan    33.0 1938 1947 26-35  903 3866 3335  582 1016 187  50  35  403  450  20  120
30              Joe Torre    32.1 1967 1976 26-35 1396 5647 5024  636 1493 216  41 139  747  526  97  713
31             Dick Allen    30.7 1968 1977 26-35 1153 4735 4070  674 1145 193  31 239  754  610  88 1010
32            Joe Medwick    26.4 1938 1947 26-35 1176 4717 4392  625 1366 282  48  95  747  282  39  258
33           Sherry Magee    25.3 1911 1919 26-34 1103 4450 3859  560 1107 220  70  55  623      387  323
34         Orlando Cepeda    25.0 1964 1973 26-35 1171 4732 4254  557 1223 216   7 187  697  370  98  620
35         Jimmy Sheckard    22.9 1905 1913 26-34 1230 5288 4262  681 1096 195  61  20  356      758  530
36             Joe Kelley    22.5 1898 1906 26-34 1055 4513 3944  666 1181 179 101  25  603      439  223
37            Jim Fregosi    20.2 1968 1977 26-35 1038 3890 3401  431  863 135  33  84  370  412  35  594
38            Vada Pinson    20.1 1965 1974 26-35 1404 5839 5427  667 1509 255  61 127  618  289  46  653
39            John McGraw    18.6 1899 1907 26-34  369 1550 1160  324  402  40  18   4  103      318   53
40           Cesar Cedeno    17.7 1977 1986 26-35 1036 4007 3575  487  990 215  27  78  453  346  40  432
41         Travis Jackson    16.4 1930 1936 26-32  757 3048 2802  359  799 129  39  54  437      173  266

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/20/2019.

"Cannot have any more reactions today" but thanks!

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends on what the market is five years from now.    Let’s say it’s gone up to $10 mm per WAR and Manny is coming off a banner season.    Or, let’s say the Marlins are a playoff caliber team with a low payroll.    Or, the Yankees have an urgent need at 3B.   It’s anyone’s guess whether circumstances would lead Manny to want to opt out five years from now.   

It's possible but unlikely. The combination of greater awareness of aging, smaller impact of PEDs, and lack of an obvious large growth path for MLB revenues means (to me) that the odds of a larger-than-$30M-a-year (or total value of $150M) contract for a 31- or 32-year old is not large.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

"Cannot have any more reactions today" but thanks!

What, have you been over-reacting?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's possible but unlikely. The combination of greater awareness of aging, smaller impact of PEDs, and lack of an obvious large growth path for MLB revenues means (to me) that the odds of a larger-than-$30M-a-year (or total value of $150M) contract for a 31- or 32-year old is not large.

That conclusion seems at odds with your prior post saying that to earn his deal Manny would have to earn 37.5 wins, “probably 25 to 30 after inflation.”    Also, my prior post posits some non-economic reasons Manny might opt out, like going home to Miami.   I should have added, “if the Padres are terrible and going nowhere anytime soon.”

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That conclusion seems at odds with your prior post saying that to earn his deal Manny would have to earn 37.5 wins, “probably 25 to 30 after inflation.”    Also, my prior post posits some non-economic reasons Manny might opt out, like going home to Miami.   I should have added, “if the Padres are terrible and going nowhere anytime soon.”

20 steps down the road here, but if Manny goes to Miami after an opt out, maybe there's a chance he'll go to the HOF as an Oriole? Would be on track for longest tenure. Still stinks that he didn't play in the 2014 playoffs. He Wieters and Davis. A WS title might have cemented the good feels.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

As a few analysts on MLB pointed out yesterday,  after his 10 year deal is done, Machado will still be younger than Cano was half-way through his 10 year deal.

122 players have had a 6+ win season at 28.

69 players at 32.

22 players at 35.

Five at 38.

One (Mays, 1971) at 40.

I have not excluded the 1990-2010 era in this data pull.  It's amazing any GM ever signed a long-term deal for a guy much over 30.  It's not like this information was locked away in a vault.  

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That conclusion seems at odds with your prior post saying that to earn his deal Manny would have to earn 37.5 wins, “probably 25 to 30 after inflation.”    Also, my prior post posits some non-economic reasons Manny might opt out, like going home to Miami.   I should have added, “if the Padres are terrible and going nowhere anytime soon.”

I expect Manny to be worth something like 25 or 30 wins over the next five years and maybe 15-20 over the five following.  But the following five will be at much higher risk of catastrophic decline.  I think it's unlikely he opts out and does better than 5/150 going into his age 32 season with most or all GMs fully aware of how players age.

I think it's more likely he's traded than opts out.  

But all of this is just my somewhat informed speculation.

[Moose Milligan]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26038769/tim-anderson-says-manny-machado-missed-boat-choosing-padres-white-sox

 

Tim Anderson says Manny Machado 'might have' missed the boat choosing Padres over White Sox

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USCA0982:1:US

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/USIL0225:1:US

Looks like Manny's doing fine.