Small sample sizes

[ChosenOne21]

I mean, he made the play, let's not beat him up too much

[TonySoprano]

Matt Kremnitzer did a nice article on this for the Athletic
https://theathletic.com/857523/2019/03/08/as-orioles-fans-should-be-well-aware-be-wary-of-random-hitter-performances-in-spring-training
 

Here are some excerpts:

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Like every team, the Orioles have had some random, impressive spring training performances over the years. And even though some of them panned out (like Steve Pearce in 2013), most of them did not.

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Félix Pié, 2010: .342/.419/.658, 1.076 OPS (43 PA)

Do you remember Félix Pié? Of course, you do. The Orioles traded for him before the 2009 season, and he put up modest numbers (.266/.326/.437, 95 wRC+) in what would be his best major league season. The then-25-year-old followed that up with a strong spring showing, but things went downhill from there. Battling injuries and ineffectiveness, he finished with a 90 wRC+ in 2010 and then a 45 wRC+ in 2011 before being designated for assignment in August. He was out of the majors before he turned 29.

 

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Steve Clevenger, 2014: .472/.513/.694, 1.207 OPS (39 PA)

Acquired in 2013 along with Scott Feldman in the infamous Jake Arrieta trade, Steve Clevenger seemed like a decent enough backup catching option. After playing sparingly with the O’s in 2014 and 2015, he was traded to Seattle in a deal for Mark Trumbo. Not good enough to stick in the majors full-time already, he soon tweeted himself out of a job altogether.

More recently - 
 

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Joey Rickard, 2016: .397/.472/.571, 1.044 OPS (72 PA)

Rickard’s spring couldn’t have gone much better. Not only did the Rule 5 pick outshine Hyun Soo Kim in camp, but he made the opening day roster and got off to a strong start. Since then, he’s carved out a role as an extra outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching decently enough. That’s not a particularly valuable role, but he still has a shot to make the 25-man roster to begin the 2019 season.

Craig Gentry, 2017: .321/.429/.528, .957 OPS (64 PA)

An older version of Rickard with a better glove, Gentry managed to stick around with the Orioles for parts of 2017 and 2018. He didn’t do much with the bat (94 wRC+ in 2017 and 84 wRC+ in 2018), though he was often deployed as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch-runner. But it may have never happened without his strong showing before the 2017 season.

Chance Sisco, 2018: .429/.474/.800, 1.274 OPS (38 PA)

What’s interesting about Sisco’s great spring so far (4 HR and 2.005 OPS in 17 plate appearances) is that he had a great spring last year as well. O’s coaches have been talking about Sisco’s improved leadership and defense this spring, but his bat is going to have to be what carries him. It remains to be seen if his hitting can translate to the major league level, but he is only 24 years old and there should be lots of playing time to go around.

 

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Chance Sisco, 2018: .429/.474/.800, 1.274 OPS (38 PA)

What’s interesting about Sisco’s great spring so far (4 HR and 2.005 OPS in 17 plate appearances) is that he had a great spring last year as well. O’s coaches have been talking about Sisco’s improved leadership and defense this spring, but his bat is going to have to be what carries him. It remains to be seen if his hitting can translate to the major league level, but he is only 24 years old and there should be lots of playing time to go around.

2018 spring Sisco: 5.3% BB, 28.9% K

2019 spring Sisco (so far): 25% BB, 20% K

[ChuckS]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

2018 spring Sisco: 5.3% BB, 28.9% K

2019 spring Sisco (so far): 25% BB, 20% K

20% K is at the top end of what Sisco is going be able to get away with and be an effective player IMO due to his lack of power.  25% BB percentage is of course, unsustainable but I think the target for him is going to be >10% BB and <20% K going forward. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

20% K is at the top end of what Sisco is going be able to get away with and be an effective player IMO due to his lack of power.  25% BB percentage is of course, unsustainable but I think the target for him is going to be >10% BB and <20% K going forward. 

Yeah if he's still a 106-107 max exit velocity guy, I agree. I'm not sure he hasn't improved the raw power though. I've never seen him hit the ball as far as he's hit it this spring, including his time in AA/AAA.

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah if he's still a 106-107 max exit velocity guy, I agree. I'm not sure he hasn't improved the raw power though. I've never seen him hit the ball as far as he's hit it this spring, including his time in AA/AAA.

The raw power has always been there though, hasn't it?  The problem has always been getting to it.  Maybe he can figure out how to start pulling the bar more.  If he's able to be a 15-20 home run guy, obviously there is a little more room for error with the K/BB percentages. 

I remember seeing him hit the ball out to deep left center in the Futures Game a couple years ago and thought he would be able to take advantage of Camden Yards short dimensions out in left, but that never materialized last season. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The raw power has always been there though, hasn't it?  The problem has always been getting to it.  Maybe he can figure out how to start pulling the bar more.  If he's able to be a 15-20 home run guy, obviously there is a little more room for error with the K/BB percentages. 

I remember seeing him hit the ball out to deep left center in the Future Games a couple years ago and thought he would be able to take advantage of Camden Yards short dimensions out in left, but that never materialized last season. 

No, he's never been a guy who has impacted the ball. The bat is quick, but there hasn't been much strength or torque behind it. That future games HR was like 390ft, barely over the wall, he's hit one 420+ this spring. 

[Ohfan67]

33 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

2018 spring Sisco: 5.3% BB, 28.9% K

2019 spring Sisco (so far): 25% BB, 20% K

Small sample size means the same thing for walk rates that it does for batting average and the like. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

Small sample size means the same thing for walk rates that it does for batting average and the like. 

Yes, but what constitutes a small sample is extremely different for K rate and batting average.

[Luke-OH]

60 PAs tell you more about a hitter's true talent K rate than 600 PAs tell you about a hitter's true talent batting average.

[Number5]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

60 PAs tell you more about a hitter's true talent K rate than 600 PAs tell you about a hitter's true talent batting average.

I don't doubt your knowledge on this, Luke, but that just seems odd to me.  It just seems to me that the pitchers that a player happens to face in 12 ball games could impact his K rate.  No?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Number5 said:

I don't doubt your knowledge on this, Luke, but that just seems odd to me.  It just seems to me that the pitchers that a player happens to face in 12 ball games could impact his K rate.  No?

It does, and I didn't say that you drill down to a firm conclusion in 60 PAs.

Just that you'll have an easier time predicting future K rate from 60 PAs of K rate data than future batting average from 600 PAs of batting average data.

[Luke-OH]

This is probably the most important article Fangraphs has put out IMO.

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

No, he's never been a guy who has impacted the ball. The bat is quick, but there hasn't been much strength or torque behind it. That future games HR was like 390ft, barely over the wall, he's hit one 420+ this spring. 

One question I’ve always had, but never asked, and thought you might be able to answer given your scouting acumen is whether Buck or someone else convinced Sisco to alter his approach in AAA and the majors over the last couple of years to try to hit for more power? It would provide at least some explanation for the increased K rates. Is there anything you’ve seen or heard about this?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Sydnor said:

One question I’ve always had, but never asked, and thought you might be able to answer given your scouting acumen is whether Buck or someone else convinced Sisco to alter his approach in AAA and the majors over the last couple of years to try to hit for more power? It would provide at least some explanation for the increased K rates. Is there anything you’ve seen or heard about this?

I haven't heard that.

The swing did get long at times which sometimes happens when someone is selling out for power. But it didn't look like that was happening, it was almost lackadaisical rather than getting too big.