Trout, 12/430

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Don’t worry, I didn’t take it that way.    

I agree it’s a very long deal, I just think that if Trout has four more years at his current level and then tapers off the next four and then is just marginal the final four, his production will still justify the deal.    

Heyman is reporting that this is a 10 year extension after the remaining 2 years on his existing contract. They could have kept him for the remaining 2/70, but they added 10/360 on top. 

It's an interesting consideration for the Angels. I bet Harper's talk of Trout in Philly spooked them a bit.

On the other hand, having him locked up with a loaded farm system really puts them in a nice position 2-5 years from now.

 

[theocean]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Heyman is reporting that this is a 10 year extension after the remaining 2 years on his existing contract. They could have kept him for the remaining 2/70, but they added 10/360 on top. 

It's an interesting consideration for the Angels. I bet Harper's talk of Trout in Philly spooked them a bit.

On the other hand, having him locked up with a loaded farm system really puts them in a nice position 2-5 years from now.

 

The Angels are in solid shape. They just need to figure out how to keep a pitcher healthy.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Heyman is reporting that this is a 10 year extension after the remaining 2 years on his existing contract. They could have kept him for the remaining 2/70, but they added 10/360 on top. 

It's an interesting consideration for the Angels. I bet Harper's talk of Trout in Philly spooked them a bit.

There were reports early in the offseason that the Angels would try to extend Trout after Manny and Harper had signed.   

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, theocean said:

The Angels are in solid shape. They just need to figure out how to keep a pitcher healthy.

I am  curious how Ohtani's bat is going to be post TJS.

[jrobb21613]

I think this is a great deal for the Angels and for Trout even though Trout probably left some money on the table. Well deserved! 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, esmd said:

Holy !@##%^!!!!!!!!!

Look, he's great and all, but the chances of something happening and his performance dropping off and making that contract the biggest albatross in the history of albatrosses is pretty high.  Smh.....good for him, but you'd think the Angels would've learned their lesson after the Pujols deal.

They're paying more-or-less Harper money for a player of similar age but who has Harper's one peak year almost every year.  Trout is #1 on the all time bb-ref WAR list through his age.  You can go down 50 or 75 spots below Trout and you have 80% of the players there as clear HOFers.  

Trout's peers are Cobb, Mantle, Hornsby, ARod, Foxx, Ott, Griffey Jr, Speaker, Vaughn, Aaron, Frank... If you're not willing to pay going rates for Mike Trout, you would have also been willing to let any of those players walk because they were too risky.  

Here's a list of players whose entire careers were worth less than Trout has been so far: Winfield, Ashburn, Billy Williams, Sliding Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jesse Burkett, Harmon Killebrew, Mike Piazza, Vlad, Yogi, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Bill Dickey, Joe Medwick, Willie Keeler, George Sisler, Jimmy Collins, Elmer Flick.  There are nine Hall of Famers whose entire careers were worth less than half of Mike Trout's first eight seasons.

[Ohfan67]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They're paying more-or-less Harper money for a player of similar age but who has Harper's one peak year almost every year.  Trout is #1 on the all time bb-ref WAR list through his age.  You can go down 50 or 75 spots below Trout and you have 80% of the players there as clear HOFers.  

Trout's peers are Cobb, Mantle, Hornsby, ARod, Foxx, Ott, Griffey Jr, Speaker, Vaughn, Aaron, Frank... If you're not willing to pay going rates for Mike Trout, you would have also been willing to let any of those players walk because they were too risky.  

Here's a list of players whose entire careers were worth less than Trout has been so far: Winfield, Ashburn, Billy Williams, Sliding Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jesse Burkett, Harmon Killebrew, Mike Piazza, Vlad, Yogi, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Bill Dickey, Joe Medwick, Willie Keeler, George Sisler, Jimmy Collins, Elmer Flick.  There are nine Hall of Famers whose entire careers were worth less than half of Mike Trout's first eight seasons.

You're just cherry picking the stats to prove your point.   

[Legend_Of_Joey]

16 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You're just cherry picking the stats to prove your point.   

Did you know that in the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BASEBALL, Mike Trout is the ONLY player to ever get a 12 year, $430 million contract?

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, esmd said:

A couple seasons is one thing.  What if after 4 of the 12 years he has a major injury and is a shell of the player he is now?

Maybe it turns out well for them.  Maybe it doesn't.  All I'm saying is a 12/430M contract presents too high of a level of risk IMO.

The only example that comes to mind of an elite player falling off a cliff at the age of 30 like you're suggesting is Ken Griffey Jr.  If Griffey is the worst-case scenario for Trout (and by the way, Griffey wasn't as good as Trout was leading up to their age 27 seasons) he'd still provide around $270-290mm in value over the life of the contract.  And that assumes that they can't recoup any money via insurance claims.  Sure, it's not great, but it's not a horrible worst-case scenario.  Not when the upside is another 8 MVP-level seasons.  (8 MVP level seasons would probably be worth upwards of $650mm.)

 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They're paying more-or-less Harper money for a player of similar age but who has Harper's one peak year almost every year.  Trout is #1 on the all time bb-ref WAR list through his age.  You can go down 50 or 75 spots below Trout and you have 80% of the players there as clear HOFers.  

Trout's peers are Cobb, Mantle, Hornsby, ARod, Foxx, Ott, Griffey Jr, Speaker, Vaughn, Aaron, Frank... If you're not willing to pay going rates for Mike Trout, you would have also been willing to let any of those players walk because they were too risky.  

Here's a list of players whose entire careers were worth less than Trout has been so far: Winfield, Ashburn, Billy Williams, Sliding Billy Hamilton, Lou Boudreau, Home Run Baker, Jesse Burkett, Harmon Killebrew, Mike Piazza, Vlad, Yogi, Hank Greenberg, Willie Stargell, Bill Dickey, Joe Medwick, Willie Keeler, George Sisler, Jimmy Collins, Elmer Flick.  There are nine Hall of Famers whose entire careers were worth less than half of Mike Trout's first eight seasons.

Well, Frank was an old 30 at one point... 

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Dombrowski's gonna Dombrowski.  That's not all bad as WS rings sometimes come with it.

He's got a big year coming up - the Mookie benchmarks are now in place, but he's two years away and immediately Sale and Bogaerts are just below the Machado/Harper tier in their own right.  Certainly when I have hopes of being better than the Red Sox in 2022, it involves one or two of their current excellent players being somewhere else.

I'm probably overreading into it, but it's telling that they invested a high draft pick last year in Durbin Feltman, a Chris Ray type to contribute before the band starts to breakup.

a Chris Ray type:   a guy who has a couple good years as a reliever, career ends in injury, and he goes and starts a very popular craft brewery?

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Did you know that in the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BASEBALL, Mike Trout is the ONLY player to ever get a 12 year, $430 million contract?

He has clearly surpassed Tim Salmon as the greatest player in baseball history with a fish as a last name, too.

Sorry Kevin Bass.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs thinks it’s the steal of the century.    

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-leaves-money-on-the-table-again/

It’s hard for me to say that.    I like the deal for the Angels, but how good a deal it is depends on how long Trout remains otherworldly.  Certainly if he maintains his current clip for another 6-7 years it will be an outrageous steal.    But there’s always the risk that he begins to tail off, or gets hurt.    We’ll see.

[ORIOLE33]

Remember this. The Angels are going to be BEGGING to get out of this deal within 4 years. 

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, theocean said:

WOAH. I like this deal for the Angels. $36M AAV isn't too other-worldly to have the best player in baseball in your uniform their entire career. Hopefully they can put a team around him so we can see him in some playoff games!

36 million a year is insane. That's just nuts in my book.