2019 O's: Where service time is king

[Can_of_corn]

The Padres don't agree that service time is paramount.

https://www.mlb.com/news/fernando-tatis-jr-on-padres-roster

He's the #2 overall prospect in the game.

He also hasn't spent any time in AAA.

[Beef Supreme]

23 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Many is one of those perfectly nebulous words for opacity when you aren't sure if you mean three or eleven, and I'm sure we'll hear it again in Elias quotes this year.  I think he believes it a bit and counts Mountcastle, Lowther, Akin, Adam Hall, JC Encarnacion and Carmona in addition to those you mentioned.

It could be interesting this summer to see whether they try to steer the Baysox or Tides into a super-team.  If one of them is good enough for a concentration of....many....of the org's best talents for a playoff push, that'll be the most August/September fun I think we can hope for this year.

I forgot Carmona. And Lamar Sparks. But counting on lower-level prospects to be with the team still when they become a winner...? How many years will that be? Three years is improbable. Five is hopeful.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres don't agree that service time is paramount.

https://www.mlb.com/news/fernando-tatis-jr-on-padres-roster

He's the #2 overall prospect in the game.

He also hasn't spent any time in AAA.

 Come on, you are smarter than this. 

You are telling me that if they were expected to lose 100 games and be the worst team in the sport he would be up) 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 Come on, you are smarter than this. 

You are telling me that if they were expected to lose 100 games and be the worst team in the sport he would be up) 

The Padres also thought it was a good idea to sign Eric Hosmer to a $144M contract.  

If the Padres prospects flame out, they probably end up trading Manny in a few years for 50 cents on the dollar. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 Come on, you are smarter than this. 

You are telling me that if they were expected to lose 100 games and be the worst team in the sport he would be up) 

No idea.  Maybe he signs a long term deal next week?

What I do know is an actual top prospect is starting the season in the majors.

[tntoriole]

On 3/25/2019 at 9:48 AM, interloper said:

Nice work on finding all this info and all, but I just don't see it playing out exactly like this. Especially if there are injuries at the ML level that force moves. 

It COULD play out like this, but it's awfully hard as a GM to just plan out your moves like this. I still maintain that Elias has development in mind more than service time. A full reset for the prospects that were definitely rushed. A more thorough evaluation and instruction in the minors using their proprietary analytics, and then reassess. 

“A more thorough evaluation and instruction using their proprietary analytics” sounds much better than “maximixing their service time”, but the two are not mutually exclusive, of course.   The goal is to get the most and longest performance out of the talent you have at the big league level as cost effectively as possible and so service time has to be part of that decision making at some level.  But I do think it is more peripheral than central to the decision making...at least from what ME has said to date. 

[wildcard]

From Roch:

Outfielder Yusniel Diaz, one of the camp standouts who was sent packing, is expected to start the season at Double-A Bowie with Ryan McKenna, one of the standouts in the Arizona Fall League.  Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart figure to play the corners at Triple-A Norfolk, with Austin Hays in center field after his left thumb heals. It’s in a splint, but he could be back in about three weeks.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/03/revisiting-the-opener-camp-roster-decisions-and-more.html

[eddie83]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No idea.  Maybe he signs a long term deal next week?

What I do know is an actual top prospect is starting the season in the majors.

That’s fine. 

Bottom line is the only time we see the service time game ignored is if a team is trying to win or has signed a player long term like Jimenez with the White Sox. 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

From Roch:

Outfielder Yusniel Diaz, one of the camp standouts who was sent packing, is expected to start the season at Double-A Bowie with Ryan McKenna, one of the standouts in the Arizona Fall League.  Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart figure to play the corners at Triple-A Norfolk, with Austin Hays in center field after his left thumb heals. It’s in a splint, but he could be back in about three weeks.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/03/revisiting-the-opener-camp-roster-decisions-and-more.html

Great news about Hays. 

Could have been much, much worse. 

[Can_of_corn]

33 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

That’s fine. 

Bottom line is the only time we see the service time game ignored is if a team is trying to win or has signed a player long term like Jimenez with the White Sox. 

Not true.

For an Orioles example we have Markakis.

It is actually a pretty select group of players this is done to.

 

[sportsfan8703]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not true.

For an Orioles example we have Markakis.

It is actually a pretty select group of players this is done to.

 

Nobody ever brings up Jonathan Singleton. Haha. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nobody ever brings up Jonathan Singleton. Haha. 

Sure it isn't going to work any time but you can say that for any long term deal.  At least with these guys it isn't big money.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I actually think this is fine given the makeup of this team for this season. The outlook should be for two to three years into the future. Service time plays into that. You want sustainable winning, not winning this season. If they play their way out of the minors you move them up.

[Just Regular]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres don't agree that service time is paramount.

https://www.mlb.com/news/fernando-tatis-jr-on-padres-roster

He's the #2 overall prospect in the game.

He also hasn't spent any time in AAA.

I am thrilled as a fan!

I will note as an observer of teams hoarding their assets that the push/pull with this is they are sending Luis Urias back to AAA.  He's also someone good enough the club is probably interested in an extra year, and is going to fly under the radar amid the crush of good press they are going to get for this.  Nicely played, Dave Cameron. 

I would have been extra-impressed with their all-in future-is-now posture if they cut Kinsler and kept Tatis and Urias together.  Whether its now or June, Urias is probably going to scuffle some acclimating himself but if you want him good for an aspirational wildcard chase this September, you have to pay that tax sometime this year.

They could probably use Straily.

[weams]

On 3/25/2019 at 8:28 AM, wildcard said:

The way the season is headed the O's  will lose a lot in the early going with most of their top prospects in the minors.  In May we should see a few of those prospects promoted.  Then in late July, Elias will sell off any veterans for whom he can get a decent return or in some cases salary relief.   After that the O's will lose even more frequently.      So there is no reason to waste prospects service time in 2019.  Here is what I expect:

We will not see the following prospects play a major league game until 16 games into the 2020 season: Diaz, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, McKenna, Pop.

Hunter Harvey will not be promoted until 19 games in the  2020 season.

Chance Sisco and Tanner Scott  will be held in the minors until the beginning of the 2020 season.

The following prospects will be promoted on these dates if they are playing well at the time:

Austin Hays:  May 16th

Anthony Santander: May 28th

Totally disagree.