Mullins earning a 2nd chance

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Well, if Mullins was hitting .100  at AAA he would not be recalled.  But because he is hitting at AAA he becomes an option  and a better defensive CFer than Rickard.

And you think that because he's hitting at AAA means he'll figure it out in the majors?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And you think that because he's hitting at AAA means he'll figure it out in the majors?

Cobb's second half ERA last year means he's suddenly a good pitcher again.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Cobb's second half ERA last year means he's suddenly a good pitcher again.

Until the first half of this year.  But let's ignore that.  

[scOtt]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Until the first half of this year.  But let's ignore that.  

Wait til the second half this year!

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Wait til the second half this year!

Teams will want to trade a ton for him!

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And you think that because he's hitting at AAA means he'll figure it out in the majors?

I think someone that is hitting well at AAA has a better chance of getting promoted to the majors than someone who does not hit well.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

I think someone that is hitting well at AAA has a better chance of getting promoted to the majors than someone who do not hit well.

Of course.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think someone that is hitting well at AAA has a better chance of getting promoted to the majors than someone who do not hit well.

 

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Of course.

I think someone that is hitting well at AAA probably has better underlying numbers than someone who is not hitting well.

 

[makoman]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The bottom 30% of MLBers are mostly indistinguishable from the top 30% of AAA pitchers.  Or close enough that it doesn't matter.  

This got me curious, especially since others seemed to think it was crazy.

Last year in MLB there were 799 pitchers total that threw 43,493.2 innings (this and all #s in this post include position players who pitched).

500 of those, or 62.5%, had 0.0 rWAR or better, and they threw about 79% of innings. 

339 pitchers, or 42.4%, had 0.3 WAR or better, and they threw about 69.5% of innings. 

So, 37.5% of pitchers last year had negative WAR. 30% of innings were thrown by pitchers having 0.2 WAR or less, and 21% of innings were thrown by pitchers having negative WAR.

This isn't a perfect exercise, but Drungo's numbers don't sound crazy to me. There are a lot of bad pitchers, and a lot of innings thrown by bad pitchers who are basically replacement level, i.e. close enough to being indistinguishable from top AAA pitchers.

(For the 2018 Orioles: 16 of 30 pitchers had 0.0 WAR or more, throwing 78.6% of innings. 8 of 30 had 0.3 WAR or better, throwing 52.8% of innings)

[BRobinsonfan]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's 8-for-23... what else do you need?  He sooooooooo hot that his average went up 70 points last night.  For Jonathan Villar to do that he'd have to go 10-for-6 tonight.  That's unpossible!

It's good that he turned it all around yesterday, because on Sunday it went down 55 points, and I have to think he was on the verge of being released.

Maybe we should trade him "while he's hot" since apparently, teams do that all the time.  

[BRobinsonfan]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That basically isn't a thing.  The bottom 30% of MLBers are mostly indistinguishable from the top 30% of AAA pitchers.  Or close enough that it doesn't matter.  And MLBers make mistakes, they don't hit their spots all the time, they go into slumps.  They're pitchers just like AAA guys, just somewhat better on average.  There's no characteristic of a AAA pitcher or a MLB pitcher that would cause any batter to hit .330 in AAA and .180 in the majors over the long haul.  

I know you're right... but what about players like Chris Weiters - the switch hitting Jesus?  .339 batting average with a .434 .obp in the minors and and .252/.315 in the majors.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I guess we will see if I get it or not.

The O's have a need for a better centerfielder than Rickard.   Smith, Rickard and Wilkerson/Mancin are playing so deep so balls will not go over their heads that balls of falling in for base hits in front of them.

Mullins is faster and quicker and can play a little closer in because he is a better centerfield. So adding that to they fact that he is hitting better in SSS at AAA,  I would not be at all surprised to see him recalled in the near future.

I would not be surprised either.    Rickard is getting pretty exposed playing CF everyday.    

But I think we are talking at cross purposes.     I don’t think teams use week long sample sizes to evaluate a player’s long term potential.     I think they do use them occasionally to time a move. For example, you need a corner OF up and you have two players in AAA who are regarded roughly equally, one of whom is on a hot streak and one of whom is ice cold.   Most times, you’re going to bring up the guy who’s hot — not because you think he’s better in the long run but to try to ride the wave.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I know you're right... but what about players like Chris Weiters - the switch hitting Jesus?  .339 batting average with a .434 .obp in the minors and and .252/.315 in the majors.  

Who?

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I know you're right... but what about players like Chris Weiters - the switch hitting Jesus?  .339 batting average with a .434 .obp in the minors and and .252/.315 in the majors.  

Great example.   What the hell happened there?

[Ruzious]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would not be surprised either.    Rickard is getting pretty exposed playing CF everyday.    

But I think we are talking at cross purposes.     I don’t think teams use week long sample sizes to evaluate a player’s long term potential.     I think they do use them occasionally to time a move. For example, you need a corner OF up and you have two players in AAA who are regarded roughly equally, one of whom is on a hot streak and one of whom is ice cold.   Most times, you’re going to bring up the guy who’s hot — not because you think he’s better in the long run but to try to ride the wave.  

Rickard might be the worst paid CFer I've ever seen.  That mile high pop-up the other day when Bundy was pitching that he somehow couldn't catch up to was a disgrace - I would have benched a HS CFer for not getting that.  And he makes up for his terrible defense by hitting around .200.  The O's can't advertise that they have a major league product and continue using Rickard at CF.  No matter what Mullins hits, he's better.