Mullins earning a 2nd chance

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't seen much to make me think he will be a useful ML player.

Wait. Are we talking about Mullins or Scott?

[scOtt]

6 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Just a side question, Does Elias (or other ML teams) have that data? Even if only AAA?

 

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He should have the information for all the home games played by the various affiliates.

 

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's my understanding that statcast is available at at all minor league parks, but only the clubs at this point have access to the data.

It surprises me they have it everywhere. I don't know what it costs but it can't be cheap. That's a good thing tho.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Just because its a SSS doesn't stop GMs from making moves.

Austin Wynns played 9 games in the minors and then Elias DFA's Sucre and recalled Wynns. That's right, 9 games was enough for Elias to evaluate that he wanted Wynns and was willing to show Sucre the  door out of the O's organization.

The decision to recall Mullins would not be as drastic.   Wilkerson,  Rickard and Wilkerson all have options so the O's can move those guys up and down to the minors without losing them.

Right now Rickard, who has replaced Mullins in center, has a 634 OPS.   That is the bar that Mullins has beat to be recalled IMO.  If Elias thinks Mullins play in the  minors has helped him start hitting and that it may continue in the majors then Elias recalls Mullins.  Mullins has more range than Rickard so that could help the O's defense. 

Wilkerson has a 571 OPS.   He can be optioned.

Its might work.  It might not.  But what does Elias have to lose?   Not as much and calling up Wynns after 9 minor league games and DFAing Sucre.

Wynns was going to make the team out of spring training but got hurt. Once he was swinging well Elias brought him up. I don't think it has anything to do with small sample sizes or changing of his mind over those 9 games. Once he knew Wynns was ready, he brought him up. Had he not been hurt, once Severino was acquired off waivers, Sucre would have been let go IMHO.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Philip said:

Wait. Are we talking about Mullins or Scott?

Mullins.

Scott may pan out and he may not.

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

Exactly my question.if the answer is the latter, Mullins will never be a useful major leaguer.

Tony? Luke

Corn?

what say you?

The analytics have not been kind to Mullins, especially when it comes to future success. Saying that, because he can play center field, I think he'll end up a solid 4th or 5th outfielder for awhile. I'm not going to give up on him being a platoon CFer quite yet, but the Rickard role might be ok on a team with right-handed hitting left and center fielders.

[scOtt]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wynns was going to make the team out of spring training but got hurt. Once he was swinging well Elias brought him up. I don't think it has anything to do with small sample sizes or changing of his mind over those 9 games. Once he knew Wynns was ready, he brought him up. Had he not been hurt, once Severino was acquired off waivers, Sucre would have been let go then IMHO.

I was going to say the same but you said it better. It's not the 9 games, it's that he had the experience last year. And his whole MiL career I assume. He was the plan all along til the oblique injury.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's be clear here, this is your opinion. Can you show us the fact to back up this 30% number? I think you are seriously degrading the difference between the major leagues and any minor league. 

As for Mullins, can you break down what pitchers were doing to him at the major league level vs minor league level to prove your theory or is it just that, a theory? I'll be happy to have this conversation, but one, we don't have the data from the minor leagues to see how they are pitching him vs the major league level and I'm willing to guess that neither us have watched video of all his games down in Norfolk to know one way or the other.

Now I would tend to agree with you that there is not a pitching characteristic for someone to bat .197 in the MLB vs .348 in AAA, but who here thinks Mullins is a .348 hitter in AAA? He's a .348 hitter over 6 games after going 3-for-5 last night.

I'm glad to see Mullins hitting. I'll have to go watch video to see if he's going to the opposite field or if pitchers are busting him in like they were at the MLB level. I don't know whether these were screaming line drives or ground balls "with eyes?" We don't know if pitchers were grooving more pitches to him like they weren't in the big leagues.

One day hopefully we will have the same statcast data available to us in the minor leagues as the major leagues and then we'll have more definitive data to base our analysis on that forms our opinions. Until then, we'll can be happy that Mullins is hitting and getting on base in AAA, but realizing it really means nothing without all of the data on how it's being done and against what kinds of pitches and pitch locations.
 

The .348 was just an example.  Mullins is more like a .275 hitter in the minors.  Which means he's probably a .250 hitter long term in the majors (unless he gets better, which is possible).  Maybe he has some current holes that MLB pitchers are better able to exploit than AAA pitchers, but that probably means he's a .230 hitter instead of .250.  It doesn't mean he's a .150 hitter.

What I was trying to say was that you'll sometimes hear this idea that someone is a AAAA hitter, who can tear up AAA but can't hit a lick in the majors.  My opinion, which I think is pretty well supported, is that doesn't really exist.  Most of it is a combination of SSS and park effects.  If you have a .950 in the minors and a .600 in the majors it probably just means you played in some high-altitude PCL stadium where everyone has a .850 OPS, and you got called up to Dodger Stadium.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wynns was going to make the team out of spring training but got hurt. Once he was swinging well Elias brought him up. I don't think it has anything to do with small sample sizes or changing of his mind over those 9 games. Once he knew Wynns was ready, he brought him up. Had he not been hurt, once Severino was acquired off waivers, Sucre would have been let go IMHO.

I still say GMs make judgment on SSS all the time.   Ynoa has called up after 3 games. Ramirez after 4 games.  Wilkerson after 15 games.  They are  all SSS.

Its based on need, what the GM thinks of the player and the way he is performing.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The .348 was just an example.  Mullins is more like a .275 hitter in the minors.  Which means he's probably a .250 hitter long term in the majors (unless he gets better, which is possible).  Maybe he has some current holes that MLB pitchers are better able to exploit than AAA pitchers, but that probably means he's a .230 hitter instead of .250.  It doesn't mean he's a .150 hitter.

What I was trying to say was that you'll sometimes hear this idea that someone is a AAAA hitter, who can tear up AAA but can't hit a lick in the majors.  My opinion, which I think is pretty well supported, is that doesn't really exist.  Most of it is a combination of SSS and park effects.  If you have a .950 in the minors and a .600 in the majors it probably just means you played in some high-altitude PCL stadium where everyone has a .850 OPS, and you got called up to Dodger Stadium.

I'd like to see that "evidence" because while minor league stats, especially those at higher levels are a decent predictor of major league success, there are a litany of guys who were good at AAA but not in the major leagues. 

Sure, park effects and lighting and things like that have an effect on players, but there are some players that just can't hit major league pitching consistently or can't get major league hitters out consistently enough for various reasons. For some reason I think you downplay the significant difference between good major league players and minor league players. Now if you want to argue the lower end (23rd-25th man) of a major league roster and the best AAA players then yes, I could believe in some cases that their talent gap is not that huge, but it's there for the most part.

Now perhaps you've been watching the Orioles over the last two years and you've come to this conclusion and yes, I'd agree since the Orioles talent level is not very high at this moment. But you just can't plug and play random AAA players and assume what kind of success they will have at the major league level based off their stats in AAA. There are way too many other factors in play. 

The statcast information is starting to help us understand these things and when/if we get data from minor league players I think we'll see this proven out.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I still say GMs make judgment on SSS all the time.   Ynoa has called up after 3 games. Ramirez after 4 games.  Wilkerson after 15 games.  They are  all SSS.

Its based on need, what the GM thinks of the player and the way he is performing.

Uggh, you really don't get this do you?

Yes, GMs will make moves off small sample sizes when they have need to do something. If Rickard gets hurt tomorrow I bet Mullins gets called back up. It won't be because of his small sample size changed the GMs mind, it's because he has a need!

What GMs don't do is demote a guy after being awful for two months and then promote him after ten games because he hit well unless he has a need. 

You don't change your evaluation of a player after ten games regardless of the numbers, but if a need arises, suddenly that player may be the best fit for various reasons like 40-man roster concerns, or in a pitcher's situations, their availability to pitch.

 

[scOtt]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I still say GMs make judgment on SSS all the time.   Ynoa has called up after 3 games. Ramirez after 4 games.  Wilkerson after 15 games.  They are  all SSS.

Its based on need, what the GM thinks of the player and the way he is performing.

Ynoa and Ramirez and a litany of other pitchers are out of necessity because our starters can't go 5 innings. Wilkerson was because Mullins needed a break and the three man bench made his utility more valuable than a pure OFer.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That basically isn't a thing.  The bottom 30% of MLBers are mostly indistinguishable from the top 30% of AAA pitchers.  Or close enough that it doesn't matter.  And MLBers make mistakes, they don't hit their spots all the time, they go into slumps.  They're pitchers just like AAA guys, just somewhat better on average.  There's no characteristic of a AAA pitcher or a MLB pitcher that would cause any batter to hit .330 in AAA and .180 in the majors over the long haul.  

A couple things:

   You say the bottom 3rd of ML pitchers and top 3rd of MiLB pitchers are virtually indistinguishable.  Sure, but probably 80 to 85 percent of his MLB ABs will come vs the top 70% of pitchers so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

   But to me the biggest difference is that MLB is a billion dollar business and MLB teams are trying  to win.  Before every game the opposing pitcher is briefed on how to pitch each batter based on extensive advance scouting, advanced metrics, etc.  If you have any weakness, flaw, or hole in your swing MLB pitchers will be aware if it and will exploit it.  In the minors there is none of that level of advance scouting, and the opposing pitcher is likely to be working in something (use your changeup more) or just trying to prove he belongs in the majors.  I dont know for sure but I suspect the level of advanced scouting on individual opponents being integrated in to pregame planning is probably minimal to none.  I seriously doubt Gwinnett is paying advance scouts to follow Norfolk games and get detailed information on how to get Cedric Mullins or Mason Williams out.

The minor league opposing Ps are working on development, not trying to use every possible analytic or scouting data to get the absolute maximum edge against the opponents to try to increase their chances of every game.

So I think there could indeed be a significant difference...if you have a subtle flaw or weakness in the majors it WILL be discovered fairly quickly and exploited daily.  In the minors that won't happen.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Uggh, you really don't get this do you?

Yes, GMs will make moves off small sample sizes when they have need to do something. If Rickard gets hurt tomorrow I bet Mullins gets called back up. It won't be because of his small sample size changed the GMs mind, it's because he has a need!

What GMs don't do is demote a guy after being awful for two months and then promote him after ten games because he hit well unless he has a need. 

You don't change your evaluation of a player after ten games regardless of the numbers, but if a need arises, suddenly that player may be the best fit for various reasons like 40-man roster concerns, or in a pitcher's situations, their availability to pitch.

 

I guess we will see if I get it or not.

The O's have a need for a better centerfielder than Rickard.   Smith, Rickard and Wilkerson/Mancini are playing so deep so balls will not go over their heads that balls are falling in for base hits in front of them.

Mullins is faster and quicker and can play a little closer in because he is a better centerfield. So adding that to they fact that he is hitting better in SSS at AAA,  I would not be at all surprised to see him recalled in the near future.

[Moose Milligan]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I guess we will see if I get it or not.

The O's have a need for a better centerfielder than Rickard.   Smith, Rickard and Wilkerson/Mancin are playing so deep so balls will not go over their heads that balls of falling in for base hits in front of them.

Mullins is faster and quicker and can play a little closer in because he is a better centerfield. So adding that to they fact that he is hitting better in SSS at AAA,  I would not be at all surprised to see him recalled in the near future.

In other words, Mullins would be recalled for lack of better options.

 

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

In other words, Mullins would be recalled for lack of better options.

 

Well, if Mullins was hitting .100  at AAA he would not be recalled.  But because he is hitting at AAA he becomes an option  and a better defensive CFer than Rickard he may be.