At the quarter mark...

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not getting my hopes up about Cobb.

Trumbo coming back would be a damper on everything.  Makes roster flexibility way harder. 

I'm really curious to see how Davis continues, actually.  Never thought I'd be saying that.

Trumbo's return (if it even happens) is funny. Some casual fans will love it. He's a known quantity who hits dingers. That's fun. To the front office, it's helpful because it provides at least a very small chance that we can dump some salary and/or get a warm body in return. So it's worth while. However, for the let's focus on the rebuild crowd, which is most of us, it seems like a total waste of time that isn't likely to net any trade benefit (financial or otherwise). I know they have to try, but I'm really skeptical that it'll pay off at all. I'm actually still very skeptical that he'll even be able to come back. That injury really seems like a tough one.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Frobby said:

54 wins is .333.    

psst, you cant argue with trolls and use facts.

[mdbdotcom]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Trumbo's return (if it even happens) is funny. Some casual fans will love it. He's a known quantity who hits dingers. That's fun. To the front office, it's helpful because it provides at least a very small chance that we can dump some salary and/or get a warm body in return. So it's worth while. However, for the let's focus on the rebuild crowd, which is most of us, it seems like a total waste of time that isn't likely to net any trade benefit (financial or otherwise). I know they have to try, but I'm really skeptical that it'll pay off at all. I'm actually still very skeptical that he'll even be able to come back. That injury really seems like a tough one.

Trumbo's return would not help the front office as much as having the insurance company pay the majority of his salary the rest of the year. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trumbo's return would not help the front office as much as having the insurance company pay the majority of his salary the rest of the year. 

If there is any insurance on his salary.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trumbo's return would not help the front office as much as having the insurance company pay the majority of his salary the rest of the year. 

The front office has to do what's in the best interest of the organization. I guarantee you that if the insurance claim is more valuable, they'll want to go that route. I'm ok with that, particularly in our situation. I highly doubt that Elias expects Trumbo to come back, be healthy and produce in a way that saves us a bunch of money and/or nets players in a trade. He can't see those odds as high. Even when healthy, he's a one-dimensional guy. A useful bat to have on a 25 man roster, but not something you overpay for.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

psst, you cant argue with trolls and use facts.

Not arguing, just correcting a math mistake.   I don’t materially disagree with atomic about how many games the team will win — I’m pretty sure I voted 51-55 in the preseason poll.   They’re on pace for 57 wins, not enough of deviation for me to change my original expectations.   

[SteveA]

13 hours ago, Philip said:

Disappointed overall. Maybe my optimism was foolish but I assumed there would be a quicker hook, both during a game and overall. Give a guy a chance. You know what to expect because you know the player, if he’s better than expected, lengthen the leash. If not, send him down and next man up.

For instance, wright should never have started the season, Scott was up way too long, and TBH I would have put Davis in a platoon and batted him ninth.

Ive second guessed several Hyde game decisions, and I wish we’d kept Jackson.

Minor quibbles, though: when your available tools aren’t good, there’s not much you can do.

I was hoping we’d be better, is all( toe in dirt)

Happy surprises:

Means, Smith, Wilkerson, Mancini, Villar( playin’ for that ticket outta town!) Severino( and from the Nats, too!) Fry, and Last BN Least, Armstrong! We dumped Wright and got Armstrong, and even if he never throws another pitch for us after tonight, I’m calling that a win!

I don’t think we’re gonna hit the mid-60s, though.

Traditionally, most MLB teams don't start making significant changes until close to Memorial Day.  If anything, I think this regime has had a quicker hook than some in the past.  They made very quick decision on Araujo, pretty quick on Wright, Scott.

A metrics based approach is never going to make decisions based on a small sample size of traditional stats.  But I think some of the advanced stuff that tracks pitch speed and location and break and bat speed and exit velocity and all that stuff doesnt need as many plate appearances to draw a conclusion from.

EVERY season, win or lose, people on the message board start clamoring to get rid of [guy off to a bad start] and every year management takes longer to pull the plug.  It's fantasy money to us, it's a real investment as well as a human being to them.

I'm honestly pleased with the speed at which they have gotten rid of non performing players, especially in the bullpen.  

[SteveA]

31 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Last season we opened with a brutal schedule, and quickly proved that we weren't up to it. That crew was a study in failure.

This season the schedule isn't is tough and the talent level isn't as high, but the team competes in most games and is more interesting to watch.

We've played two series with Boston, two series with New York, two series with first place Minnesota, and two series with first place Tampa in the first 40 games.  All 4 of those teams would be at least tied for a playoff spot in the AL if the season ended today.  60% if the schedule so far vs playoff teams sounds pretty tough to me.  

[ChuckS]

We are a 50-60 team win. 

I tend to think the pitching will be a little better than it's been going forward and the hitting a little worse.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Traditionally, most MLB teams don't start making significant changes until close to Memorial Day.  If anything, I think this regime has had a quicker hook than some in the past.  They made very quick decision on Araujo, pretty quick on Wright, Scott.

A metrics based approach is never going to make decisions based on a small sample size of traditional stats.  But I think some of the advanced stuff that tracks pitch speed and location and break and bat speed and exit velocity and all that stuff doesnt need as many plate appearances to draw a conclusion from.

EVERY season, win or lose, people on the message board start clamoring to get rid of [guy off to a bad start] and every year management takes longer to pull the plug.  It's fantasy money to us, it's a real investment as well as a human being to them.

I'm honestly pleased with the speed at which they have gotten rid of non performing players, especially in the bullpen.  

Well the analytics crowd isn’t just looking at performance of the season. They’re looking at career performance. It is a fallacy to think that they are only able to judge this regular season. Because they have the entire career to evaluate, small sample size is not an issue.

 That’s why I was surprised and disappointed that they kept Wright, and delayed Scott’s demotion.

To severely flawed the players. And wasting time with them delayed the opportunity to evaluate others.

[theocean]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I expected this team to be way worse, but with some positive surprises highlighted in the OP it's much more appealing than last years bunch.  

They've certainly played harder and with more heart than I expected. It's been a nice surprise and all we can ask for out of this group.

But, they're about as bad as I think most of us predicted. They're on pace for 56 wins. Tied for the worst record in the American League. Second worst run differential. They're not record-setting bad, but they're still pretty bad.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, theocean said:

They've certainly played harder and with more heart than I expected. It's been a nice surprise and all we can ask for out of this group.

But, they're about as bad as I think most of us predicted. They're on pace for 56 wins. Tied for the worst record in the American League. Second worst run differential. They're not record-setting bad, but they're still pretty bad.

I thought they'd be on par with last years team.  I didn't think they'd be able to score any runs and we'd be below 50 wins.  Of course there's still a long way to go but at least they're on pace not to be as bad as last years bunch.

[Sanfran327]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Good column by Joe Trezza here:  https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/here-s-where-orioles-stand-at-the-quarter-pole

Overall, the season is going about as I expected.   Things I didn’t expect:

1.   John Means 

2.   Dwight Smith (obviously)

3.   Cashner has been much better than I expected.  

4.   Davis has been better than I expected.   

5.   The bullpen has been worse than I expected, though Givens has been very good.    

6.   Mullins was very disappointing offensively.    I still believe there’s better to come from him.   

7.   Mancini’s performance has been at the top end of what I might have expected.    

8.   Cobb’s unavailability and poor performance when available is an obvious disappointment.

Overall, pluses outweigh the minuses in the context of what I expected in the first place.   

I'd add a 9th item: the infield defense has been worse than what I expected. We've turned a lot of double plays, but overall, the infield defense has been sloppy. Mental/concentration errors and sloppy play are unacceptable, even in a team that's rebuilding from scratch. Losing because 3/5 or 4/5 of your rotation is bad and because you have no middle relief is one thing, but at a minimum, we need to be able to catch the ball. 

[Redskins Rick]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I thought they'd be on par with last years team.  I didn't think they'd be able to score any runs and we'd be below 50 wins.  Of course there's still a long way to go but at least they're on pace not to be as bad as last years bunch.

Thats where I am at.

I was pleasantly surprised to see them leading the league in runners throw out stealing. I didnt expect themt o be leading the league in any category except HR allowed.

This team is more interesting to watch then last season.

[BRobinsonfan]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't.  But I try to forget David Segui.

Ah... the fragile one.  I hadn't thought about him in years.