A couple of thoughts about our current catchers and Adley Rutschman

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Philip said:

(Yawn)

”he hits.”

”what about his defense?”

”who cares? He’s caught for a year. If he doesn’t stick there, we’ll find A place for him.”

And now, we still don’t have a place for him. If he were an acceptable catcher, there’d be no debate. But because there’s still discussion, it’s still an issue.

do with that what you will.

I have some suggestions...

Yea, just you making stuff up.  That is what I figured you would come up with.

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, just you making stuff up.  That is what I figured you would come up with.

Look I made my point, based on legitimate factors which you know as well as I. I’m not quoting anyone exactly and you’re a fool if you think I am.

youre welcome to disagree but there’s no point to repeating things. I enjoy interacting with you but it’s time to hush, or we will stop.

[wildcard]

Elias said the week that when drafting high the odds of getting a player that will be a franchise cornerstone is only 50/50.   That is what happened when he was picking for the Astros.  He hit on Correa and Bregman and missed on Appel and Aiken.   I would think he will take the guy that is the surest  bet.  I would think that will be the college player Rutschman rather than the High School player Witt who should have more risk.    Interesting that Elias would actually put the risk at 50/50 to get a corner stone player.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Let’s see how he turns out.  I can’t say Who I would have drafted, but I can say that my draft philosophy would be to draft the best all-around player. I don’t want someone who runs but can’t hit, who hits but can’t field, who fields but can’t run. Single skill guys are worth taking, but only farther down the draft. Sisco Was drafted because it was expected that he would hit, and no one cared about his defense. Well guess what? He hasn’t hit, but he has struck out a whole lot.

So far, only 13 of the 34 second rounders from that year have been called to the majors at any point.   Of those, Sisco ranks 5th in games played and WAR.   3 of the 4 ahead of him are 4-year college guys.   The one high schooler is Ryan McMahon of the Rockies, who was drafted 19 slots ahead of Sisco.  So at least so far, I’d say Sisco’s been a good pick.    Of course, over time, more of that class will reach the majors and we’ll see how everyone does.    

For what it’s worth, of the 54 players ever chosen 61st, 31 reached the majors.   Sisco ranks 19th In WAR and 17th in games played among that group.   So that puts him in about the top third of all players picked in that slot, even if he never plays another game in the majors.   

Ken Holtzman is the top player chosen 61st.   Our own Nolan Reimold ranks 10th in WAR and 2nd (!) in games played.   (Note: pitchers obviously play in fewer games than position players, so games played doesn’t completely capture who was in the majors the longest, but it’s still a useful measure.)

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Look I made my point, based on legitimate factors which you know as well as I. I’m not quoting anyone exactly and you’re a fool if you think I am.

youre welcome to disagree but there’s no point to repeating things. I enjoy interacting with you but it’s time to hush, or we will stop.

What legitimate factors?

None near as I can tell.

You have decided that Sisco's defense isn't good enough.  You decided that this must have been evident to everyone watching him in HS.  You decided that the powers that be didn't care.

You have no evidence to support your claims.

I would have no problem at all if the two of us stopped interacting.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Elias said the week that when drafting high the odds of getting a player that will be a franchise cornerstone is only 50/50.   That is what happened when he was picking for the Astros.  He hit on Correa and Bregman and missed on Appel and Aiken.   I would think he will take the guy that is the surest  bet.  I would think that will be the college player Rutschman rather than the High School player Witt who should have more risk.    Interesting that Elias would actually put the risk at 50/50 to get a corner stone player.

Cornerstone is a rather high bar in my book.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias said the week that when drafting high the odds of getting a player that will be a franchise cornerstone is only 50/50.   That is what happened when he was picking for the Astros.  He hit on Correa and Bregman and missed on Appel and Aiken.   I would think he will take the guy that is the surest  bet.  I would think that will be the college player Rutschman rather than the High School player Witt who should have more risk.    Interesting that Elias would actually put the risk at 50/50 to get a corner stone player.

 

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cornerstone is a rather high bar in my book.

Agreed.    What’s your definition?  The 1-1’s break down like this:

50+ WAR: 4

40+ WAR: 6

30+ WAR: 13

20+ WAR: 21

That’s 21 out of 54 who were worth 20 WAR. Correa (19.8) will make it 22.    There are 3 guys drafted 2016-18 who we don’t know about yet, so call it 22 out if 51.    That’s a little less than 50%, and that assumes a 20 WAR guy is a “cornerstone.”

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Agreed.    What’s your definition?  The 1-1’s break down like this:

50+ WAR: 4

40+ WAR: 6

30+ WAR: 13

20+ WAR: 21

That’s 21 out of 54 who were worth 20 WAR. Correa (19.8) will make it 22.    There are 3 guys drafted 2016-18 who we don’t know about yet, so call it 22 out if 51.    That’s a little less than 50%, and that assumes a 20 WAR guy is a “cornerstone.”

Sure, haven't thought about it.  That seems reasonable.

I was thinking of the much less scientific method of guys you can build a team around but that works better in other sports.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

Let’s see how he turns out.  I can’t say Who I would have drafted, but I can say that my draft philosophy would be to draft the best all-around player. I don’t want someone who runs but can’t hit, who hits but can’t field, who fields but can’t run. Single skill guys are worth taking, but only farther down the draft. Sisco Was drafted because it was expected that he would hit, and no one cared about his defense. Well guess what? He hasn’t hit, but he has struck out a whole lot.

Cody Bellinger is one of the very few players taken after Sisco in 2013 who is very likely to have a better career.  He probably fell to the 124th overall pick because he's basically a first baseman who doesn't steal many bases.  One tool, kinda limited.

[Satyr3206]

If they draft Adley I don't care who the back up is. Len Sakata, Earl Williams, whoever. It will take him a year and a half to make it to the Majors so there is time.

[nate22]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I remember two years ago Brett Gardner suddenly went on a random power binge, hitting 11 in the first two months of the year.   He ended up with a career high 21, a lot for a guy with 103 homers in 12 years though not quite as extreme as the Boggs example.    

Check out Phil Bradley's career. Specifically '84 and '85.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlph01.shtml

[Philip]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What legitimate factors?

None near as I can tell.

You have decided that Sisco's defense isn't good enough.  You decided that this must have been evident to everyone watching him in HS.  You decided that the powers that be didn't care.

You have no evidence to support your claims.

I would have no problem at all if the two of us stopped interacting.

Then stop. Life is too short to deal with contentious people.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cornerstone is a rather high bar in my book.

That is an interesting concept...

Players who we either drafted and developed who became true cornerstones for us. 

Hmmm ...Brooks Robinson,  Jim Palmer,  Cal, Eddie Murray...that’s all I have.   

You could say Mike Mussina but he left..which isn’t a real cornerstone-ish attribute.  Same way with Manny. 

And none were the 1-1 pick. 

[tntoriole]

Just now, tntoriole said:

That is an interesting concept...

Players who we either drafted and developed who became true cornerstones for us. 

Hmmm ...Brooks Robinson,  Jim Palmer,  Cal, Eddie Murray...that’s all I have. 

You could say Mike Mussina but he left..which isn’t a real cornerstone-ish attribute.  Same way with Manny. 

 

1 hour ago, Satyr3206 said:

If they draft Adley I don't care who the back up is. Len Sakata, Earl Williams, whoever. It will take him a year and a half to make it to the Majors so there is time.

Backup catchers are a dime a dozen. 

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Cody Bellinger is one of the very few players taken after Sisco in 2013 who is very likely to have a better career.  He probably fell to the 124th overall pick because he's basically a first baseman who doesn't steal many bases.  One tool, kinda limited.

Yeah, but that one tool is like Thor’s hammer...pretty daggone destructive.