2019 1st round pick (1): Adley Rutschman - Catcher - Oregon State University

[Luke-OH]

I predict he signs and is announced at a game this weekend. Just my guess.

[El_Duderino]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I predict he signs and is announced at a game this weekend. Just my guess.

Any prediction on where he starts?

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

Any prediction on where he starts?

I’d guess Delmarva. But they could give him a week or two in Aberdeen.

[nevadaO]

Who would we not be able to sign if we sign AR at slot value?

[Aglets]

Just now, nevadaO said:

Who would we not be able to sign if we sign AR at slot value?

The biggest concern I've seen people raise about who will require money OVER slot to sign is Gunnar Henderson (SS who we took in the 2nd).

[nevadaO]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

The biggest concern I've seen people raise about who will require money OVER slot to sign is Gunnar Henderson (SS who we took in the 2nd).

Yikes. 

I should know the answer but alas, I do not, but what are the penalties for going over our allocated draft budget? I can't see how we can sign AR and even 6 or 6 others with what we have. Especially if Henderson wants over slot. 

[Aglets]

3 minutes ago, nevadaO said:

Yikes. 

I should know the answer but alas, I do not, but what are the penalties for going over our allocated draft budget? I can't see how we can sign AR and even 6 or 6 others with what we have. Especially if Henderson wants over slot. 

Great question!   I had to look it up myself.  This is from Bleacher Nation.

Quote

As for the penalties: Any team that exceeds its pool by 0 to 5% must pay a 75% tax on the amount of the overage. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 5% but less than 10% must pay a 75% tax on the amount of the overage AND loses a first round draft pick next year. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 10% but less than 15% must pay a 100% tax on the amount of the overage AND loses a first round draft pick next year AND loses a second round draft pick next year. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 15% must pay a 100% tax on the amount of the overage AND lose a first round draft pick in each of the next TWO drafts.

 

[Aglets]

So bottom line:   there is basically no way Elias is going to overspend our total draft allotment pool by more than 5%.

It looks like our total pool for 2019 is about $13.8M.     Adley is expected to be around 8 I think.

[Obando]

Unless Gunnar changes his asking price unexpectedly or fails a physical, I don’t see anyway he doesn’t sign.  Elias wouldn’t have drafted him this early if he didn’t know what it would take to sign him and didn’t feel confident that he would have the funds to do it.  Even if Adley gets $8M, we still should have enough to pay Gunnar over slot since we didn’t draft any other over slot guys in the top 10 rounds (other than maybe Hernaiz, but he’s probably more of a slot value or slightly above slot guy).

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Obando said:

Unless Gunnar changes his asking price unexpectedly or fails a physical, I don’t see anyway he doesn’t sign.  Elias wouldn’t have drafted him this early if he didn’t know what it would take to sign him and didn’t feel confident that he would have the funds to do it.  Even if Adley gets $8M, we still should have enough to pay Gunnar over slot since we didn’t draft any other over slot guys in the top 10 rounds (other than maybe Hernaiz, but he’s probably more of a slot value or slightly above slot guy).

I totally agree.  I think Elias is certainly not dumb so he wouldn't have used his 2nd round pick on Gunnar unless he was pretty confident that they would get the numbers to work out.

[nevadaO]

Agreed. Hopefully KC didn't screw us by signing Witt Jr. at full slot. We need every player we draft.

[Spl51]

3 hours ago, Aglets said:

I totally agree.  I think Elias is certainly not dumb so he wouldn't have used his 2nd round pick on Gunnar unless he was pretty confident that they would get the numbers to work out.

Idk, next years draft is supposedly really deep, it's wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to get a compensation pick.

[weams]

18 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I predict he signs and is announced at a game this weekend. Just my guess.

Since he no longer has an Omaha commitment. 

[oriolediehard]

Hi Weams

Is there an update on the O's 1st - 5th Draft picks?  Are they going to be tough to sign?  Is money the issue?  Or is it a question whether they want to back to school?  It is frustrating when a pick is taken and he decides to reenter the draft next year.

 

[Luke-OH]

23 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Hi Weams

Is there an update on the O's 1st - 5th Draft picks?  Are they going to be tough to sign?  Is money the issue?  Or is it a question whether they want to back to school?  It is frustrating when a pick is taken and he decides to reenter the draft next year.

 

95+% chance they all sign. Practically 100% for the college kids (Adley, Stowers, Watson). Like I’ve said before, they’ll probably announce all the rest of the signings all at once. So in all likelihood, a bunch of deals are done but just not announced, the 5th round pick Hernaiz was reported to have agreed to a deal last week. None of this is abnormal.

I don’t think @weams will have a significantly different take.