Rule 5 eligible players

[MurphDogg]

Players not on the 40-man roster are eligible for the Rule 5 draft if (a) they were 18 or younger when drafted/signed and this is their fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming of (b) they were 19 or older when drafted/signed and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

The following notable players must be added to the 40-man roster or they will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft

1. Ryan Mountcastle

2. Yusniel Diaz

3. Keegan Akin

4. Ryan McKenna

5. Dean Kremer

6. Cody Sedlock

 

Other notable players that are Rule 5 eligible that I don't think merit addition to the 40-man roster

Brett Cumberland

Ofelky Peralta

Cristian Alvarado

Gray Fenter

Brian Gonzalez

Ademar Rifaela

Jaylen Ferguson

Jomar Reyes

Jay Flaa

Chris Lee

Matthias Dietz

 

Did I miss anybody? Does anybody disagree with the players I have being added?

 

I don't think Sedlock is a sure thing to be added, it will come down to his last six weeks. I think the other five are locks to be added.

 

Edited to remove Alex Wells.

 

Alex Wells ( I now believe he is not eligible, as he was signed in August 29, 2015 after the GCL season ended and he didn't play until 2016, so this is only his fourth Rule 5 upcoming and he was signed as an 18 year old).

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Chris Lee was released the other day, so I don't think we have to worry about him.

Dietz can't find the strike zone to save his life in Frederick.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Chris Lee was released the other day, so I don't think we have to worry about him.

Dietz can't find the strike zone to save his life in Frederick.

Yeah, I only added Dietz because he has been on the OH top 30 the last couple years. He is clearly not a candidate to be added or selected.

I missed Lee being released, I really only added him because he was actually on the 40-man roster a while back and he at last managed to strike people out this year, if nothing else.

[MurphDogg]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Depends on how much room we have but Kremer, Akin, Wells, Mountcastle, and Diaz are the only no brainers for me.   Not too afraid of losing any of the others but I think the odds of getting picked and lasting a whole year in the majors are not real good.

I think McKenna would get picked and could last a whole year in the Majors. It is harder for an outfielder to last, but Carlos Tocci and Victor Reyes both lasted full seasons in 2018 as Rule 5 players. They were similar level prospects, but McKenna has more power than both Tocci and Reyes and both Tocci and Reyes lasted all season despite recording sub 50 OPS+ in the Majors. As long as he is a legitimate centerfielder defensively, I think he could stick as a fourth outfielder.

I think it may come down how he looks the last 6+ weeks of the season and I imagine he will get another season in the AFL

[DirtyBird]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Yeah, let's see what McKenna does the last 6 weeks.  As of now, I believe Luke thinks 4th of is his most likely outcome.  If someone wants to pick him and stash him for a year, more power to them.  What kind of numbers did those other guys put up the year they were selected?

We currently have Broxton, Smith Jr and Wilkerson on the 40 man right now. Of course you protect McKenna (and Diaz) over any of them.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

26 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

We currently have Broxton, Smith Jr and Wilkerson on the 40 man right now. Of course you protect McKenna (and Diaz) over any of them.

Is Broxton on contract beyond this season?

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Is Broxton on contract beyond this season?

Arbitration eligible, according to Spotrac

[DirtyBird]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Chances of losing McKenna are slim and none.  Broxton isn't here next year.  50/50 that Smith and Wilkerson are. Difference is that they are already on the 40 man.  Every year I go through this.  Everyone wants to protect too many guys.  Everyone is afraid of losing someone who is 22 and hitting .235 in AA and striking out 1/4 of the time.  And some team is going to pick him, why?

If Broxton isn't here next year, and Smith and Wilkerson are 50/50, who do you think will fill those spots on the 40 man?

You think they prefer to find another Smith Jr over protecting McKenna?

[DirtyBird]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Too early to tell.  If there's plenty of room then a guy like McKenna probably gets protected.  Guys like him, Peralta, and Sedlock are fringy.  I could see a team selecting Peralta but he'd still be a lonshot to stick

Nobody is taking Peralta. Right now, it looks like Alvarado would be much more likely to be picked than Peralta.

[Luke-OH]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Peralta is starting verses Alvarado relieving.  Alvarado is 93-96 as a reliever.  Peralta is pretty much that as a starter and probably a tick better.  A team thinking slightly outside the box could take a look at Peralta as a one inning reliever.  Good chance he sits 96-98 as a reliever.  Doesn't mean he'll be good but teams take fliers on that.

Peralta’s secondary stuff is better too. Alvarado has the profile of a guy who’d have to be left handed or dominating AAA to get selected and it still wouldn’t be likely. If the ceiling is 35/40, they better be MLB ready to warrant Rule 5 consideration.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Chances of losing McKenna are slim and none.  Broxton isn't here next year.  50/50 that Smith and Wilkerson are. Difference is that they are already on the 40 man.  Every year I go through this.  Everyone wants to protect too many guys.  Everyone is afraid of losing someone who is 22 and hitting .235 in AA and striking out 1/4 of the time.  And some team is going to pick him, why?

I think we’ll have plenty of room to protect all of our “prospects”. The 40 man isn’t exactly overflowing with talent. Lots of stop gap P and guys like Broxton. 

[EricK]

12 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

 

6. Alex Wells (pretty sure he is eligible, as he was signed in July 2015, but he didn't play until 2016)

 

 

MILB.com has Wells signing on August 29, 2015

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=649144#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

August 29 was also the last day of the GCL Orioles season

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/3201/gcl-orioles/schedule/?year=2015

 

Assuming he signed later in the day after the season ended, 2015 does not count as the first of five years.  So, he won't be eligible until after the 2020 season.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

Also any players who have not been professionals long enough are also ineligible for the Rule 5 draft. For any pro who signed his initial contract as an 18-year-old or younger is eligible for the Rule 5 draft after their fifth professional season. Anyone who initially signed at 19 or older is eligible after their fourth professional season.

The wording of that is precise for a reason. If a player's first contract is signed where they are assigned to a team whose season has already ended, than that player's first counting season does not begin until the next season.

[MurphDogg]

24 minutes ago, EricK said:

 

MILB.com has Wells signing on August 29, 2015

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=649144#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

August 29 was also the last day of the GCL Orioles season

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/3201/gcl-orioles/schedule/?year=2015

 

Assuming he signed later in the day after the season ended, 2015 does not count as the first of five years.  So, he won't be eligible until after the 2020 season.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

Also any players who have not been professionals long enough are also ineligible for the Rule 5 draft. For any pro who signed his initial contract as an 18-year-old or younger is eligible for the Rule 5 draft after their fifth professional season. Anyone who initially signed at 19 or older is eligible after their fourth professional season.

The wording of that is precise for a reason. If a player's first contract is signed where they are assigned to a team whose season has already ended, than that player's first counting season does not begin until the next season.

Excellent detective work. I knew the rule but I trusted his Wikipedia page when it said he signed in July 2015. Of course, the citation to that claim states he was signed August 29. Should have clicked through when I was reading it yesterday.

I agree that he does not need to be protected.

[ChrisP]

If Joey Rickard was selected, I could see McKenna selected with his solid track record for the past 2 years. 

[Frobby]

It would be nice if we didn’t have to put Wells on the 40-man roster this offseason, but I’m hoping he’ll pitch well enough at Norfolk in 2020 that they’ll call him to Baltimore sometime during the season.