I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

But if exactly one of those teams claims him on waivers we lose him for nothing, right?

correct

[atomic]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The money owed to the player goes into escrow on the second July 1 after the end of the season when it was earned, but at a discounted rate designed to grow into the amount that will be due.    So, the Davis deferred comp due from the 2016-17 seasons already is in escrow, and 2018 money will be due to be paid on July 1, 2020, discounted.   The discount applied is set as described in the CBA.
 

“Deferred compensation obligations incurred in a Contract executed on or after September 30, 2002 must be fully funded by the Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned. For purposes of this Article XVI, full funding of the present value of deferred compensation obligations shall mean that the Club must have funded, for the duration of and without interruption in each year, the current present value of the then outstanding deferred payments, discounted by 5% annually. If the prime interest rate in effect at The J.P. Morgan Chase Bank on the immediately preceding November 1 is 7% or higher, the Parties shall meet and confer regarding this Article XVI discount rate and may, with due notice to the Clubs, amend such discount rate effective the next succeeding July 1.”  
 

See page 81 of the CBA, found at p. 95 of this link to a PDF copy.   

https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf

Hope that helps.   

Thanks.  I posted earlier that I found this.  Since Davis is being paid until 2035 I am guessing that the saving on the deferred money is quite significant.  I am not sure what the Orioles are investing the deferred money in but even if they don't make 5 percent a year they dont' have to make up that money until it is paid. 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

4.0+3.9+2.7/3=3.53.  Even cherry picking your stats he's not a 4 win guy.

If he's viewed as a 4 win guy why haven't the O's found a trade partner yet?

I mentioned the 3 that are pretty close together and dropped the outlier! And I mentioned the outlier! Quit being a jerk!

[MGH5208]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

People are ignoring a few posts in this thread. I’ll summarize.

Some are hearing that the Os have some offers they like now. By putting him on waivers, the offering team(s) might risk losing him. If true, the Os putting him on waivers is to squeeze the best offer we can.

So it sounds like he’s being traded. Hopefully we get a good return.

sorry if this has already been posted, but is there a deadline for other teams to claim him?  Say 10AM Monday and then they negotiate if there are multiple teams putting in a claim.  Or can they start negotiations/trade once more than one team puts in a claim

Thanks in advance for the info

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

4.0+3.9+2.7/3=3.53.  Even cherry picking your stats he's not a 4 win guy.

If he's viewed as a 4 win guy why haven't the O's found a trade partner yet?

Nobody will project Villar to be worth 4 WAR this year.    But that’s not to say he’s incapable of being worth that.    Obviously, he is.    But it’s rarely prudent to bet on a player performing right at the top level he’s ever achieved in the past.    

[Legend_Of_Joey]

2 minutes ago, MGH5208 said:

sorry if this has already been posted, but is there a deadline for other teams to claim him?  Say 10AM Monday and then they negotiate if there are multiple teams putting in a claim.  Or can they start negotiations/trade once more than one team puts in a claim

Thanks in advance for the info

I believe Dan Connelley said they have until Monday when the "non tender" deadline is. I believe that is 4 pm.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Yep, you’re 100% right. He’s a 4 WAR player. Everyone must agree with you because he’d be making that easy $10M and not being shot through waivers, untouched at the trade deadline and no biters at the GM meetings. A real hot commodity, that Jonathan Villar.

I didn't say that ...so don't put words in my mouth!

$10 million per year isn't a lot of money in this day and age. Especially when you have a ridiculously low payroll and are receiving 180 million in TV money!

This is just the team being cheap!

The rumors were that Elias didn't get an offer he liked at the deadline. But anything is better than giving him away for nothing.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I mentioned the 3 that are pretty close together and dropped the outlier! And I mentioned the outlier! Quit being a jerk!

He's not a 4 win player. 

I'd be OK with calling him a 3 win player but 4 is just overstating your case.

[Enjoy Terror]

25 minutes ago, atomic said:

Yeah I think the management team is destroying anyone interest in baseball in this town. People keep saying the 14 year losing  streak but it was never this bad in those years.  And we had plenty of drafts during that losing streak where we drafted in the top 5 and got a bunch of guys like Bundy, Gausman, Matusz, Lowen and Hobgood.  Drafting early gurantees nothing.

I think you need to look at this like a divey restaurant with mediocre food shuttering for a bit to remodel, hire a new chef, clean the tobacco stains off the ceiling, and get some actual people in the door. 

No one will enjoy the remodel and there’s always someone who will prefer the trash dive bar. The Orioles spent 25 years being a repulsive organization down to its foundation. You’ll be happier when they reopen.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I didn't say that ...so don't put words in my mouth!

$10 million per year isn't a lot of money in this day and age. Especially when you have a ridiculously low payroll and are receiving 180 million in TV money!

This is just the team being cheap!

The rumors were that Elias didn't get an offer he liked at the deadline. But anything is better than giving him away for nothing.

I think all of us agree that the team is being...frugal.

As for trading him at the deadline, I've already addressed that.  If the return was light enough it would be an acceptable risk to try again.

If it comes out he got a fair offer and didn't take it, I'd change my mind.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, atomic said:

Thanks.  I posted earlier that I found this.  Since Davis is being paid until 2035 I am guessing that the saving on the deferred money is quite significant.  I am not sure what the Orioles are investing the deferred money in but even if they don't make 5 percent a year they dont' have to make up that money until it is paid. 

Per Cot’s:

• the $42M in deferred money is to be paid in 10 installments of $3.5M annually each July 1, 2023-32, and five installments of $1.4M each July 1, 2033-37
• MLB calculates present-day value to $147,831,478 with deferrals, while the MLBPA’s present-day value calculation is $147,737,635

That’s about $14 mm less than the face value of the contract.  I assume from this that the O’s have to escrow about $4 mm/yr to for it to (presumptively) grow into $6 mm paid when it’s due.   

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nobody will project Villar to be worth 4 WAR this year.    But that’s not to say he’s incapable of being worth that.    Obviously, he is.    But it’s rarely prudent to bet on a player performing right at the top level he’s ever achieved in the past.    

Frobby, Hes produced 3.9 and 4.0 in two of the last 4 seasons and he's only 28 (so in his prime). There is no reason to believe that he can't be in the ballpark for the next 2-4 years.

The point is the Orioles have piss poorly managed this situation. They could have extended him at a reasonable cost last offseason, or even in the 1st half.

There handling of this situation stinks and Elias has done nothing on the player side of the business to instill confidence.

[SilverRocket]

17 minutes ago, SteveA said:

But if exactly one of those teams claims him on waivers we lose him for nothing, right?

Is there anything other than exactly one, if he's claimed at all? I thought the opportunity to claim goes one-by-one in some order of teams.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not a 4 win player. 

I'd be OK with calling him a 3 win player but 4 is just overstating your case.

Did I say he was a 4 win player .... Also if you use basic math ... 4 WAR if 4, 3.9 is rounded up and 3.5 could be rounded up also. So he's been a 4 WAR player in 3 of the last 4 years.

He had a terrible season an any smart person could see it for that.

But, Im ok with you calling him a 3 WAR player. And I'm confident he can be relied on to produce that over the next 3 or so seasons

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Frobby, Hes produced 3.9 and 4.0 in two of the last 4 seasons and he's only 28 (so in his prime). There is no reason to believe that he can't be in the ballpark for the next 2-4 years.

The point is the Orioles have piss poorly managed this situation. They could have extended him at a reasonable cost last offseason, or even in the 1st half.

There handling of this situation stinks and Elias has done nothing on the player side of the business to instill confidence.

I don’t like the decision to non-tender him.    But that’s not because I think it’s likely he’ll be worth 4 WAR this year.    Even at, say, 2.5 WAR, he’s worth more than he’ll be paid in arbitration.