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I think we're saying the same thing, or at least we rhyme. If they're going to include one league that has completely different quality of play, why not all leagues? Why stop at the Negro Leagues? -
By DrungoHazewood · Posted
Baseball is different from most other team sports in a number of key aspects: The number of trials. 162 games is a lot of games to have random variation smooth out. If you pick random 16-game stretches you'll have NFL-like outliers, such as teams going 15-1 or 1-15. Nobody goes 150-12. Pitchers are very limited in how much they can pitch. A 200-inning starter can only have so much impact. Hitters cannot get more than ~1/8th of a team's PAs. This and the prior point means that there's no way around having your 3rd- and 5th and even 14th-best players getting almost as much playing time as #1. So you end up with the most dominant teams usually not even winning 2/3rds of their games, wherein other sports you can have teams win 80% or more. Which makes baseball look more random. Contributing to this is the expanded playoffs, where a .600 vs .575 matchup is more-or-less a coin flip. I doubt most other sports have a situation where the obviously best team in the league has a 25%-ish shot of the Championship (in other words, a 75% chance of going home disappointed) on day one of the playoffs. In most soccer leagues the regular season champ is The Champ, so there's a 0% chance of that. The best team always takes a big trophy home. -
He got rewarded for swinging at a ball at his ankles. He might also be able to hit a fastball up around his neck for a home run. If he consistently swings at those types of pitches it will be to his detriment over the long run. -
By Sports Guy · Posted
People really underestimate luck and randomness. Drungo is right….baseball is no different than any other sport. -
By DrungoHazewood · Posted
Yandy Diaz' BABIP for his career is .320. Last year it was .367. While batters exercise a larger degree of control over their BABIPs than pitchers, there is still a lot of noise (i.e. luck) in the data. This year his BABIP is down about 90 points compared to last. I would bet that's about equal parts not hitting the ball as well, and not having the balls he does hit fall in. -
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By DrungoHazewood · Posted
Sure. But isn't that like saying a player pitched 85 innings of relief with a 3.00 ERA one year, then the next year he pitched 220 innings as a starter with a 3.00 ERA. I wouldn't say that was a consistent, expected performance.
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