2019 #1 Prospect: Adley Rutschman - C

[Tony-OH]

Little surprise here to start off the list. Rutschman has a chance to be a generational talent.

Age: 21
2019 Level: R-/S-R/A-

http://orioleshangout.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image-2-1024x143.png

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 50/70
Game Power: 60/60
Raw Power: 60/60
Run: 45/40
Glove: 55/60

Most Likely Future Role: Starting Catcher, occasional All-Star
Ceiling: Starting Catching, Perennial All-Star

What we know: The first overall pick in the 2019 draft by the Orioles, Rutschman is a rare plus offensive and defensive player at an up the middle defensive position. Rutchsman brings plus tools across the board outside of running speed and is advanced enough to move quickly through the minor league system. After slashing .411/.575/.751 at Oregon State, he was slowed a bit by mono in his pro debut though he did have a red hot streak at Aberdeen that gave him some good numbers there. Rutschman has an advanced approach allowing him to get deep in counts rarely chases pitches out of the zone. He has power to all fields and has shown the ability to hit for power without sacrificing average. Defensively, he's a plus thrower who threw out 64% of the runners who attempted to steal in his pro debut. An intelligent and mature player for his age, he's a leader on the field, works well with his pitchers, and already shows an advanced feel to call games.

What we don't know: As advanced a player Rutschman is for this stage of his career, we still don't know how he will handle upper level pitching. Rutschman has plenty of bat speed to hit upper level velocity, but it's still an unknown how he will handle upper level and major league offspeed pitches.

What we think: Rutschman has all the makings of being a franchise type player who will end up a plus bat and defender as a catcher. Although he could probably be ready for the majors at some point next year, the Orioles will be in no rush to bring him up and start his controllability clock. Depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement ends up, Rutschman should be the starting catch by some time in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.

Another Take: Really not much to add here, a historically good college performer in a tough conference who has the tools and make-up to back it up. Only question for me is how the body holds up behi

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/05/adley-rutschman-c/

[Can_of_corn]

Love his expression in the picture.  Hopefully we won't be seeing it too often when he plays for the O's.

[LookinUp]

Very nice write-up Tony and Luke. 

I would absolutely have drafted this kid at #1 and I'd absolutely rank him as our #1 prospect, but your "what we don't know" should be noted. We don't know how the bat will handle upper level stuff. That's not a knock. It's literally unknowable, though I'm sure scouts can project reasonably well, as you mention when talking about his bat speed. 

I really think I have PTSD from Wieters. I know he was a pretty good all around player, and an elite throwing catcher in his prime,, but I want (and the O's need) Rutschman to be better overall. Hopefully last year's relatively slow start for AR was more a function of mono, moving several times, wood bats, etc., and less a sign that his bat isn't elite. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I really think I have PTSD from Wieters. I know he was a pretty good all around player, and an elite throwing catcher in his prime,, but I want (and the O's need) Rutschman to be better overall. Hopefully last year's relatively slow start for AR was more a function of mono, moving several times, wood bats, etc., and less a sign that his bat isn't elite. 

I know what you mean.  Realistically, a catcher with Wieters’ career is a decent outcome for a 1:1, but I’d be really disappointed if that’s all he turned out to be.   

[eddie83]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Very nice write-up Tony and Luke. 

I would absolutely have drafted this kid at #1 and I'd absolutely rank him as our #1 prospect, but your "what we don't know" should be noted. We don't know how the bat will handle upper level stuff. That's not a knock. It's literally unknowable, though I'm sure scouts can project reasonably well, as you mention when talking about his bat speed. 

I really think I have PTSD from Wieters. I know he was a pretty good all around player, and an elite throwing catcher in his prime,, but I want (and the O's need) Rutschman to be better overall. Hopefully last year's relatively slow start for AR was more a function of mono, moving several times, wood bats, etc., and less a sign that his bat isn't elite. 

I’m no scout but Adley is a much more athletic looking player than Wieters. Slimmer frame and looks more fluid to me. 

I also think Buck pushed Matt hard. Played him in a ton of games. If Adley is a really great hitter I will be curious how he is handled. May get more days at 1B and DH 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I’m no scout but Adley is a much more athletic looking player than Wieters. Slimmer frame and looks more fluid to me. 

I also think Buck pushed Matt hard. Played him in a ton of games. If Adley is a really great hitter I will be curious how he is handled. May get more days at 1B and DH 

My views haven't changed.  Ride him hard and let someone else pay for the decline.

[wildcard]

Last year GCL/Aberdeen/Delmarva

Next year Frederick/Bowie/ Norfolk.

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My views haven't changed.  Ride him hard and let someone else pay for the decline.

Ride him hard when they aren’t  good enough to win? Or wait until they can contend? 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Ride him hard when they aren’t  good enough to win? Or wait until they can contend? 

Well 2020 is going to be spent in the minors so pace him out so he doesn't call apart until after 2027.  If the CBA changes ride him harder.

does anyone think Wieters' TJ was the result of over work?

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Well 2020 is going to be spent in the minors so pace him out so he doesn't call apart until after 2027.  If the CBA changes ride him harder.

does anyone think Wieters' TJ was the result of over work?

It’s unknowable.    

[TGO]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Last year GCL/Aberdeen/Delmarva

Next year Frederick/Bowie/ Norfolk.

I don't think they're going to have him play three levels this season. Frederick through the AS break and then Bowie would put him within striking distance of playing in the majors in 2021 if that's something the team wants. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s unknowable.    

I agree, I was asking for opinions.

I don't think so.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, TGO said:

I don't think they're going to have him play three levels this season. Frederick through the AS break and then Bowie would put him within striking distance of playing in the majors in 2021 if that's something the team wants. 

Elias is going to want him at Norfolk because that is where that where the pitching is going to be this season.  But he has to go through Frederick and Bowie first.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, I was asking for opinions.

I don't think so.

I don’t even have much of an opinion.    All I can say is, his workload didn’t help.    But TJ surgery among catchers is a pretty rare event, so I don’t think one could even try to do a correlation between workload and frequency of TJ.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is going to want him at Norfolk because that is where that where the pitching is going to be this season.  But he has to go through Frederick and Bowie first.

I don't think Hall and Rodriguez are going to be in Norfolk this season.