2019 #8 Prospect: Zac Lowther - LHP

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, atomic said:

A lot of guys picked in the third round never make it to the majors.  I am not sure what your point is?  Before you can call him the next Kyle Seager he has to do something to prove that he is better than his draft location. 

I think my point is pretty clear.    Being picked in the second round obviously doesn't mean Henderson can't become the next Kyle Seager, since Seager himself was picked in the third round.    But I am not saying that Henderson will turn out to be Kyle Seager.    I'm saying from the description of his tools, I'd hope he could become that level of player.    Obviously it's way early to know whether he'll turn out to be (1) better than Seager, (2) not as good as Seager, (3) not really an impact major leaguer at all.   But he has a relatively high upside, per the reports I've read.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, weams said:

He is just Oriole bashing as usual. I'll be on this train until Gunnar flops. Which he might. I'm wrong often.  At least I like the team though. 

How is it Oriole bashing.  Gunnar might be a star player and he might be a total flop or somewhere in between.  Anyway it certainly isn’t Oriole Bashing if I think other Oriole prospects deserve to be ranked higher.  Like Tony has said he hasn’t seen him play yet.  Let’s see him do something at Delmarva before putting him above players that have had success in minors.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

How is it Oriole bashing.  Gunnar might be a star player and he might be a total flop or somewhere in between.  Anyway it certainly isn’t Oriole Bashing if I think other Oriole prospects deserve to be ranked higher.  Like Tony has said he hasn’t seen him play yet.  Let’s see him do something at Delmarva before putting him above players that have had success in minors.

Who should be ranked higher?

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I will admit I'm higher on him then most, including Luke. I could be wrong, but I just feel it in my bones that he's going have success a major league starter. I just see a lot of bad swings against him and when he mixes his pitches, he's really hard to hit even when his command isn't great.

I do know a scout who like me, likes him more than Baumann overall. In the end though, I was swayed to put Baumann over Lowther and it's certainly the safer bet. But, if I had a gun to my head and someone asked me if I could only have one, I would have taken Lowther over Baumann, but it is close due to Baumann significant velocity advantage. 

Like their grades though suggest, they are the same kind of prospect for us.

Before last year, nobody was picking Baumann over Lowther.    And let's not forget they were chosen in the same draft, with Lowther being the higher pick, and the more successful pitcher results-wise to date.   It's just that Baumann came on like gangbusters as 2019 progressed.    Nice to have both.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Before last year, nobody was picking Baumann over Lowther.    And let's not forget they were chosen in the same draft, with Lowther being the higher pick, and the more successful pitcher results-wise to date.   It's just that Baumann came on like gangbusters as 2019 progressed.    Nice to have both.

You've said that right. 

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sounds like Tony likes him a little more than Luke, at least this year.   He seems like a guy who will find a useful big league roll one way or another.  

I don't think either of us have a great feel for him at this stage.

I'm always leery of high schoolers the year after their draft and don't put a ton into their stats put up in rookie ball. Rick Elder, Chip Alley, Xavier Avery, Bryan Bass and Brandon Snyder (who went straight to Bluefield and skipped GCL) all hit well in rookie ball in their debuts as well regarded (1st or 2nd round) High School draft picks. It really doesn't say a ton either way unless they fail miserably and even then, they could have just had a long layoff or were struggling with being away for the first time.

Derek Jeter (.202/.296/.312/.609) and Chipper Jones (.229/.321/.271/.592) are notable players who failed miserably in their first taste of rookie league ball after being drafted. Things worked out ok for them. 

Hernaiz is going to be on this list and we are already being pretty aggressive with him. He'll be an interesting follow next season.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, atomic said:

How is it Oriole bashing.  Gunnar might be a star player and he might be a total flop or somewhere in between.  Anyway it certainly isn’t Oriole Bashing if I think other Oriole prospects deserve to be ranked higher.  Like Tony has said he hasn’t seen him play yet.  Let’s see him do something at Delmarva before putting him above players that have had success in minors.

Everyone has different criteria on where they rank guys. My criteria has been explained and it's what I fall back on as we discuss the rankings. It's ok if you have different thoughts.

[atomic]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Everyone has different criteria on where they rank guys. My criteria has been explained and it's what I fall back on as we discuss the rankings. It's ok if you have different thoughts.

I think unless guys are drafted early in the top 20 picks  or totally destroys the competition in rookie ball or low A I would not put them in the #10 with the depth the Orioles have currently.  I would rate someone like Dean Kremer higher than him as he has had good success at Bowie last year. Also Akin as he had some success last year in a hitters league at AAA.  

Now if you had seen him play multiple times and you said the scouts on the other teams really missed the boat and he is playing all world defense and has a great swing than I might be inclined to change my rating. 

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think unless guys are drafted early in the top 20 picks  or totally destroys the competition in rookie ball or low A I would not put them in the #10 with the depth the Orioles have currently.  I would rate someone like Dean Kremer higher than him as he has had good success at Bowie last year. Also Akin as he had some success last year in a hitters league at AAA.  

Now if you had seen him play multiple times and you said the scouts on the other teams really missed the boat and he is playing all world defense and has a great swing than I might be inclined to change my rating. 

Maybe you should dedicate yourself to starting a website with lists and opinions that nobody would care about.

[Ruzious]

I take it as an especially good sign that both Bauman and Lowther are rated ahead of Harvey.  I thought Harvey made some progress, but the O's are no longer in the situation that they're almost dependent on a miracle from him and can even make Harvey their closer of the future.  And we still have a guy like Kremer who could pass Harvey.  Maybe even Akin and a couple others but probably not.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Sounds like Tony likes him a little more than Luke, at least this year.   He seems like a guy who will find a useful big league roll one way or another.  

 

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think either of us have a great feel for him at this stage.

I'm always leery of high schoolers the year after their draft and don't put a ton into their stats put up in rookie ball. Rick Elder, Chip Alley, Xavier Avery, Bryan Bass and Brandon Snyder (who went straight to Bluefield and skipped GCL) all hit well in rookie ball in their debuts as well regarded (1st or 2nd round) High School draft picks. It really doesn't say a ton either way unless they fail miserably and even then, they could have just had a long layoff or were struggling with being away for the first time.

Derek Jeter (.202/.296/.312/.609) and Chipper Jones (.229/.321/.271/.592) are notable players who failed miserably in their first taste of rookie league ball after being drafted. Things worked out ok for them. 

Hernaiz is going to be on this list and we are already being pretty aggressive with him. He'll be an interesting follow next season.

Sounds like you thought my post was referring to Henderson.    I was talking about Lowther.

As to your point about not putting too much stock in rookie ball stats, don't forget our old friend Billy Rowell.   .929 OPS at Bluefield and .876 at Aberdeen at 17 years old.   

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Sounds like you thought my post was referring to Henderson.    I was talking about Lowther.

As to your point about not putting too much stock in rookie ball stats, don't forget our old friend Billy Rowell.   .929 OPS at Bluefield and .876 at Aberdeen at 17 years old.   

That was before he started living in his truck. 

[LookinUp]

I have no idea where to put Lowther. I just fear the velocity while loving the results. Just like Wells, even though I get that they're different guys.

[HowAboutThat]

31 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I have no idea where to put Lowther. I just fear the velocity while loving the results. Just like Wells, even though I get that they're different guys.

I think with both guys they are going to make it to the show and immediately either get destroyed or show they can mystify hitters. Either way we’ll find out quickly.

[atomic]

5 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Maybe you should dedicate yourself to starting a website with lists and opinions that nobody would care about.

Isn’t this thread for that.  I haven’t disagreed with most of the rankings.