2019 #12 Prospect: Keegan Akin - LHP

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/10/orioles-12-prospect-keegan-akin-lhp/

[ChuckS]

Promising stuff.  Although I can't imagine that throwing the ball every five days rather than every two to three is going to make a big difference with a guy's diet and ability to stay in shape.  

[Ruzious]

Gotta figure getting in good shape would help with his consistency, but if he hasn't done that so far - there's probably not much reason to expect him to change.  Gotta agree with putting him behind Kremer.    

[Frobby]

I’m having trouble reconciling the pitching grades with the rankings.

FB: Kremer 50/50, Akin 55/55

CH: Kremer 35/40, Akin 55/55

SL: Kremer 40/45, Akin 50/50

CU: Kremer 50/50, Akin —/—

Command: Kremer 40/45, Akin 45/50

It seems Akin is better at everything, now and in the future, except that Kremer has a fourth pitch.    That’s nice, but two of Kremer’s pitches are not as good as Akin’s third best pitch.    Just based on that, I’d have to give Akin the edge here, if the grades are accurate.   So what are the reasons to the contrary?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m having trouble reconciling the pitching grades with the rankings.

FB: Kremer 50/50, Akin 55/55

CH: Kremer 35/40, Akin 55/55

SL: Kremer 40/45, Akin 50/50

CU: Kremer 50/50, Akin —/—

Command: Kremer 40/45, Akin 45/50

It seems Akin is better at everything, now and in the future, except that Kremer has a fourth pitch.    That’s nice, but two of Kremer’s pitches are not as good as Akin’s third best pitch.    Just based on that, I’d have to give Akin the edge here, if the grades are accurate.   So what are the reasons to the contrary?

Curious about this as well. I suspect it has something to do with floors and ceilings.

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Promising stuff.  Although I can't imagine that throwing the ball every five days rather than every two to three is going to make a big difference with a guy's diet and ability to stay in shape.  

Here's my theory on this. When you are a starter, you get four days knowing you are not going to pitch so you eat and drink what you want. If you know you could pitch on just about any night, a player might not relax as much and take care of himself a bit more. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m having trouble reconciling the pitching grades with the rankings.

FB: Kremer 50/50, Akin 55/55

CH: Kremer 35/40, Akin 55/55

SL: Kremer 40/45, Akin 50/50

CU: Kremer 50/50, Akin —/—

Command: Kremer 40/45, Akin 45/50

It seems Akin is better at everything, now and in the future, except that Kremer has a fourth pitch.    That’s nice, but two of Kremer’s pitches are not as good as Akin’s third best pitch.    Just based on that, I’d have to give Akin the edge here, if the grades are accurate.   So what are the reasons to the contrary?

This is the difference between Luke and I. I think Luke is a little high on is scouting grades for pitches in this particular case. If Akin was throwing three average pitches, two above average he would be pitching effectively at the big league level vs putting up a nearly 5 ERA in AAA.

While Akin will show you average or even above average pitches, I take consistently of that pitch into consideration. Akin and Kremer are pretty close as prospects but I probably would have taken Akin over Kremer. Luke and I probably should have switched here because I think he's higher on Kremer and I'm higher on Akin.

Not everyone is going to agree and that's why this year we added "Another Take" so you can see the differences when there are some.

[LookinUp]

I'm not seeing a ton of difference between Lowther, Kremer and Akin in terms of FV. Hopefully 1 of the 3 hits his ceiling and another turns into a nice swing man. Really like having several of these guys in the system. Throw in Harvey and Baumann and I think you have the makings of a solid future staff. Let's hope the top guys turn into what we hope they can.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not seeing a ton of difference between Lowther, Kremer and Akin in terms of FV. Hopefully 1 of the 3 hits his ceiling and another turns into a nice swing man. Really like having several of these guys in the system. Throw in Harvey and Baumann and I think you have the makings of a solid future staff. Let's hope the top guys turn into what we hope they can.

I don't necessary disagree. They are all similar but in that their ceilings are 3rd probably 4th starters. I do think Bauman and Akin have the best chance to go to the bullpen and be good pieces out there due to their velocity and one plus pitch,

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't necessary disagree. They are all similar but in that their ceilings are 3rd probably 4th starters. I do think Bauman and Akin have the best chance to go to the bullpen and be good pieces out there due to their velocity and one plus pitch,

I kinda feel like their future role will depend on the team almost as much as the player. Akin would likely eat some innings for the O's as a starter this year if given a chance. It might not be his best role, but that might be his role on a bad team. Flash forward 3 years and he's really excelling (a true plus) out of the bullpen on a team with Rodriguez, Hall, Means, Hancock and Bundy starting. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is the difference between Luke and I. I think Luke is a little high on is scouting grades for pitches in this particular case. If Akin was throwing three average pitches, two above average he would be pitching effectively at the big league level vs putting up a nearly 5 ERA in AAA.

While Akin will show you average or even above average pitches, I take consistently of that pitch into consideration. Akin and Kremer are pretty close as prospects but I probably would have taken Akin over Kremer. Luke and I probably should have switched here because I think he's higher on Kremer and I'm higher on Akin.

Not everyone is going to agree and that's why this year we added "Another Take" so you can see the differences when there are some.

I really like the “another take” feature.    So far, there really aren’t any drastic disagreements, it’s more shades of gray.    But it’s useful to see how opinions can vary.    
 

I’m hoping to see both these guys in the majors at some point in 2020 so I can start forming my own opinions!

[Ruzious]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m having trouble reconciling the pitching grades with the rankings.

FB: Kremer 50/50, Akin 55/55

CH: Kremer 35/40, Akin 55/55

SL: Kremer 40/45, Akin 50/50

CU: Kremer 50/50, Akin —/—

Command: Kremer 40/45, Akin 45/50

It seems Akin is better at everything, now and in the future, except that Kremer has a fourth pitch.    That’s nice, but two of Kremer’s pitches are not as good as Akin’s third best pitch.    Just based on that, I’d have to give Akin the edge here, if the grades are accurate.   So what are the reasons to the contrary?

For me, I'm skeptical about a professional athlete who has a conditioning problem.  So, if their stuff is close, I'll lean against the one with the conditioning problem.  Having said that, I don't know how bad Akin's problem is.  

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

For me, I'm skeptical about a professional athlete who has a conditioning problem.  So, if their stuff is close, I'll lean against the one with the conditioning problem.  Having said that, I don't know how bad Akin's problem is.  

I'm not sure how much of his conditioning problem is just having a fat face. Athletes that don't look like athletes don't get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to conditioning. Some guys are just naturally bigger, and to quote Moneyball, we aren't selling jeans here.

Maybe he could be putting more of an effort in, but I am truly curious whether at least part of it is just a sub-conscious bias on the part of evaluators, where if he didn't look the way he looks and had the same up and down struggles, he would be seen as streaky and uneven while building up to the grind of throwing every fifth day for six months and not as poorly conditioned.

Tough to judge with the impact of the MLB ball, but Akin actually had the same FIP in 2019 with Norfolk that he had in Bowie at 2018.

[Moose Milligan]

This is where I'm stoked about having a legit 1-4 or 5.  Seems like a few years ago a guy like Akin would be a top 5 type of talent and we'd be trying to talk ourselves into being excited about him.  Maybe there's something that the new coaching/analytics can do to dial in his stuff and perhaps he could be a John Means type but that's getting too hopeful.

Agreed with @MurphDogg his fat face does him no favors.  In that photo in the link, he looks like Chris Tillman.  And even if he's still on the heavier side, there have been plenty of pitchers who have done well and have been considered overweight.  I'm not sure what the correlation between weight gain/loss and command/consistency is but if there is such a thing I'd love to hear it.  The back of his neck could look like a pack of hot dogs for all I care as long as he can throw strikes, keep the ball down in the zone and have effective secondary pitches.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is where I'm stoked about having a legit 1-4 or 5.  Seems like a few years ago a guy like Akin would be a top 5 type of talent and we'd be trying to talk ourselves into being excited about him.  Maybe there's something that the new coaching/analytics can do to dial in his stuff and perhaps he could be a John Means type but that's getting too hopeful.

Agreed with @MurphDogg his fat face does him no favors.  In that photo in the link, he looks like Chris Tillman.  And even if he's still on the heavier side, there have been plenty of pitchers who have done well and have been considered overweight.  I'm not sure what the correlation between weight gain/loss and command/consistency is but if there is such a thing I'd love to hear it.  The back of his neck could look like a pack of hot dogs for all I care as long as he can throw strikes, keep the ball down in the zone and have effective secondary pitches.

Tillman may prove the point. He had some good years but he came into camp out of shape in 2015 and I am convinced that was the beginning of the end for him. Was terrible from start to finish that year and was never the same.

I thought Akin's 2018 was so disappointing that he was going to drop further than 12.