Will Elias be able to improve the O's starting pitching this off season?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

The bar is really low, but they jettisoned a league average starter. Doubt they replace that.  Is it fair to expect more from Means?

It’s realistic to expect less from him.    Hopefully, a good bit more from Cobb.    That wouldn’t be hard.   

[REDMAN]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

Do you really feel this way or did some shock jock espouse this to you?

We had probably the worst pitching staff in baseball, Elias has already stated the none of the kids are going to pitch until they are ready to stay, there is only one option to improve, sign minor league and major league free agents. They would be sign to one year non-guarantee minor league contracts and the scouts and the new tools can make an evaluation on them,  there is nothing to lose in this situation, you can cut the one who don't have the skills. All teams have done it for years.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s realistic to expect less from him.    Hopefully, a good bit more from Cobb.    That wouldn’t be hard.   

You think he can do better than 12.1 innings of 10.95 ERA? 

[Es4M11]

Honestly, I don't really care if the pitching is improved overall. I'll be happy if they can find another useful piece or two for the team going forward. Not advocating outright tanking for this upcoming season, but I have no problem with a hgih draft pick again next year and see no need to go spend good money to get some middling MLB vets just to give the MLB team a shot at a few more wins. I think this will be a much more relevant topic of discussion next year at this time.

[Roll Tide]

So my answer is simple

If you count adding prospects for later Yes

He doesn’t care about the MLB club. After trading Bundy away it’s very unlikely that anything comes off the nontender, waiver wire, Rule 5 or free agency that will be immediate enough to drastically change this season. And they are simply not paying 8-10 million to get a mediocre free agent starter. And in all likelihood that guy ends up not being good.

[7Mo]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think he can do better than 12.1 innings of 10.95 ERA? 

Let's see what the new baseballs are like before getting hopes too high. 

[Philip]

It’s a very low bar.

[Philip]

Having just read your opening comment, if Hess, Eshelman and Ortiz are on the roster at the start of the season this offseason will be a failure.

I can’t comment on the other guys, but this is a time for giving chances, and once a guy’s had his chance, send him on his way. Hess  has an advanced degree and is smart and has a bright future. But not as a ball player.

Ortiz has his signing bonus. Eshelman, well he has Chris Davis’ autograph.

send ‘em on their way.

[foxfield]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

Having just read your opening comment, if Hess, Eshelman and Ortiz are on the roster at the start of the season this offseason will be a failure.

I can’t comment on the other guys, but this is a time for giving chances, and once a guy’s had his chance, send him on his way. Hess  has an advanced degree and is smart and has a bright future. But not as a ball player.

Ortiz has his signing bonus. Eshelman, well he has Chris Davis’ autograph.

send ‘em on their way.

I don't really disagree with anything you are relating here.  But Philip, I want to point out something.  Your judgement on the offseason is short sighted and is simply not high on the priorities of what the club is doing.  So, to me arguing about whether the offseason is a success is completely missing the point.  Your focus is solely on building a winning ML roster for 2020.  This is not what Elias is working towards.  Others, and not necessarily you, accuse those holding this opinion to blind following of Elias when this point comes up, but again, I think it is a paper tiger.  The Orioles are doing a complete rebuild.  They said it and 1 year in it's pretty clear that is what is going on.  Winning the offseason, will mean things that will have nothing to do with the roster in March....because whether anyone likes it or not, the roster for at least another year is going to be put together as cheaply as possible.  Anyone with any value who is deemed unlikely to be here during the next successful run is for sale and the asking price is always going to be heavily geared to that next window and once again, not this offseason and certainly not the 2020 roster.

Elias is only a year in.  I have no concrete opinion on how well or how poorly he is doing.  But I do agree that he has a very clear idea of what he is trying to do and what ownership is allowing him to do.  I also think over the course of the next year or so, there should be insight towards progress in the infrastructure as well as the talent pool for the Orioles.  Elias cannot claim to be rebuilding and and be losing 105 games a year into the middle of the 2020's.  But I am also not going to really worry about some of the better looking pieces that get moved.  We want to be able to see the merits of each and every daily move.  The reality is that some of them are going to look meaningless because they are...and some of them will look meaningless...until the meaning becomes clear.

We don't like this because we want to answer our poll now.  Trading Villar, our best player because we wouldn't pay 10M seems dumb given that in spite of saving money, we really don't have a replacement.  But once you understand, Villar doesn't need a replacement, because the focus and reasons for most every move are not based on the best lineup in 2020, it becomes easier to see beyond the move.  Again, time will tip the scale and Elias will eventually have to produce some results.  And I don't think it is blindly following to understand that properly assessing the rebuild requires a bit more of the foundation work to be completed.  Judging the rebuild based on demolition is just premature.  

Personally, I hope that by this time next year we can begin to see some progress, but I don't know.  These things take time.  I'm in.  I had no idea Villar would be my favorite player this year.  I wish him well next year and I cannot wait to see who comes forward this year.  Or in the hopes of completing the demolition...who comes off the roster this year...CD.

Anyway, I hope you can see how someone could both agree with your view and yet still not your assessment.

[weams]

1 hour ago, REDMAN said:

We had probably the worst pitching staff in baseball, Elias has already stated the none of the kids are going to pitch until they are ready to stay, there is only one option to improve, sign minor league and major league free agents. They would be sign to one year non-guarantee minor league contracts and the scouts and the new tools can make an evaluation on them,  there is nothing to lose in this situation, you can cut the one who don't have the skills. All teams have done it for years.

Thank you for the extrapolation. 

[REDMAN]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Thank you for the extrapolation. 

I don't expect you to agree with my opinions, by I have studied and seen a lot of baseball in my 66 years, but even if your trying to lose, you still need to fill in the holes on your team with players. The orioles, KC, and the tigers are open opportunities for SP today. Baseball has always been about finding and uncovering gems that other teams always give up on and release, its the different between being a successful and a unsuccessful GM, Its goes to heart of scouting in the first place, you can see something that nobody else sees. 

 

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's always all about the 17 year old Dominicans.

J2 baby!

[weams]

3 minutes ago, REDMAN said:

I don't expect you to agree with my opinions, by I have studied and seen a lot of baseball in my 66 years, but even if your trying to lose, you still need to fill in the holes on your team with players. The orioles, KC, and the tigers are open opportunities for SP today. Baseball has always been about finding and uncovering gems that other teams always give up on and release, its the different between being a successful and a unsuccessful GM, Its goes to heart of scouting in the first place, you can see something that nobody else sees. 

 

I appreciated your explanation more than you know. 

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, REDMAN said:

I don't expect you to agree with my opinions, by I have studied and seen a lot of baseball in my 66 years, but even if your trying to lose, you still need to fill in the holes on your team with players. The orioles, KC, and the tigers are open opportunities for SP today. Baseball has always been about finding and uncovering gems that other teams always give up on and release, its the different between being a successful and a unsuccessful GM, Its goes to heart of scouting in the first place, you can see something that nobody else sees. 

 

Do you think Elias is NOT looking for the best available hidden gems?

Do you agree he's only going to offer minimal money to said gems?

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

We all know  that free agent starters only come to the Orioles when they have no where else to go.    Camden Yards and the AL East is one of the hardest places to pitch in the MLB.   The only way to attract starter is to over pay for them and that, of course, is not in the O's plans at this point.  

We expect that Norfolk this season will begin with Akin, Kremer, Zimmerman, Baumann, Lowther and Wells getting starts at AAA.  That is the near term future.  They all have something to prove to make the majors.  Akin may be a month or two away.  The others are probably three to five months or more away.

We know Means, Cobb and Wojo are the O's top three starters.  Elias will need to fill two more starter spots plus add depth  Here are the current candidates for those spots.

(1) David Hess (26)  4-20, 5.84 ERA in the majors.    6-4,  3.83 ERA at AAA.  He is probably best used as  a reliever but enters ST he may compete for a starting role because the O's need starters.  He has options left.

(2) Tom Eshelman (25)   1-2,  6.50 ERA in the majors.   15-18,  4.12 ERA at AAA.   On the Norfolk roster.   

(3) Ty Blach  (29)  16-22,   4.99 ERA in the majors.  28-24,  4.54 ERA at AAA.  On the Norfolk roster.

(4)  Chandler Shepherd (27)   0-0 , 6.63 ERA in the majors.   12-27, 4.62 ERA at AAA.  On the Norfolk roster.

(5) Luis Ortiz (24)   0-2,  12.71 ERA in the majors.    5-8, 5.51 ERA at AAA.  on the Norfolk roster.

The question is will Elias be able to improve on these starter candidates without spending much money through the waiver wire, purchases, trades, non tenders and free agents from both major and minor  leagues?   Past history shows if starters have a choice they go elsewhere.

 

The bigger question is, does he want to? by trading away Villar and Bundy, it's clear wins and losses are not a concern for 2020. I think we will see more guys like Wojo sign here and or acquired through waiver claims. I don't think he will rush any prospects or sign anyone unless it's a Nate Karns' type deal under a million where he thinks he may be able to flip that at the trade deadline if they pitch well.