Would you offer Hays or Mountcastle a long term deal now?

[mdbdotcom]

31 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

If they've been very productive at the MLB level then why would they accept a deal such as this?

It's an insurance policy for the player. They know they will make $XX million in the first six years regardless of how they perform or whether or not they get injured. Most players don't make much until they hit arbitration. A lot can happen in those first two-three years. It also means the player can start living like a major leaguer instead of waiting.

[orioles22]

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I'd be more in favor of locking up some of our young pitchers when they get here.

[OsEatAlEast]

No on both for me. Hays has to prove he can stay healthy and Mountcastle has to prove he can hit ML pitching first in my mind.

[MurphDogg]

23 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

No on both for me. Hays has to prove he can stay healthy and Mountcastle has to prove he can hit ML pitching first in my mind.

After they prove that, the price of the extension will be a lot higher.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes, because neither of them can be as terrible as Chris Davis is and cost as much.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, fansince1988 said:

The Orioles would never do this. They are shedding as much payroll as possible.

They are shedding short term guys that will not be part of the core. Totally different when you are talking about guys you think could be part of the next core. One precedent is Adam Jones' contract even when the club was losing. He did have some MLB experience at that point, but DD didn't sit around waiting for the club to make the playoffs before locking him up. That said, I'm not sure Hays or Mountcastle are the guys to build around.

[rudyrooster]

I'd be more inclined to sign Adley Rutschman to that type of contract.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

I'd be more inclined to sign Adley Rutschman to that type of contract.

That type of deal would be a lot more expensive.

[El Gordo]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

In the last couple of years there have been some long term deals made with players with little or no major league experience:

Scott Kingery: 6/$24 mm before he’d played a game in the majors.  Team options for $13/$14/$15 mm for three FA years.    Covers ages 24-32.   Was BA #31 prospect.   Produced -1.3 rWAR in the first year of the deal but improved to 3.0 rWAR in year two.

Brandon Lowe: 6/$24 mm after one partial season (43 games) in the majors.   Team options for $10.5 mm/$11.5 mm for two FA years.   Covers ages 24-30.   Was BA #93 prospect before his partial debut season.   Produced 0.7 rWAR in the partial season before he signed, and 2.9 rWAR in the first year of the deal.

Eloy Jimenez: 6/$43 mm before he’d played a game in the majors.  Team options at $16.5/$18.5 mm for two FA years.   Covers ages 22-29.   Was BA #3 prospect before his debut season.   Produced 1.4 rWAR in first year of his deal.

Would you offer a deal like that to Hays or Mountcastle at this point?   Say, 6/$24 mm with two team options at $12 mm each?

Please answer the poll, but I’m interested to hear why or why not.   Also, anyone else you’d consider at this point?

I need to see both play a full year in the ML.

[Philip]

The Astros have John Singleton a 10 million deal before he had finished his first season. He’s now out of baseball.

long term deals are unwise under almost any circumstances. Consider even Manny. Offering him 6/180 two years ago. We would still have him now, and… What? Wasted money. No, and I think these two particular players wouldn’t be candidates for an extension anyway.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

The Astros have John Singleton a 10 million deal before he had finished his first season. He’s now out of baseball.

long term deals are unwise under almost any circumstances. Consider even Manny. Offering him 6/180 two years ago. We would still have him now, and… What? Wasted money. No, and I think these two particular players wouldn’t be candidates for an extension anyway.

The Jones and Markakis deals worked great for the O's.  Plenty of teams that locked up good young talent did well.  This goes back to the Indian teams of the last millennium.  Rays saved a ton on Longoria for example and the Braves are going to make out like bandits.

[MurphDogg]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

The Astros have John Singleton a 10 million deal before he had finished his first season. He’s now out of baseball.

long term deals are unwise under almost any circumstances. Consider even Manny. Offering him 6/180 two years ago. We would still have him now, and… What? Wasted money. No, and I think these two particular players wouldn’t be candidates for an extension anyway.

Jon Singleton. John Singleton directed Boyz n the Hood.

And Jon Singleton is the only player who has signed a contract like that that has failed. And it only cost $10 million because both sides knew of Singleton's particular risk. For every Singleton, there are a half-dozen Albies, Longoria, Jimenez types where the contracts have been a boon to the team.

Compare that to the dozens of free-agent contracts that have resulted in $10+ million "losses". The Orioles had four multi-year free contracts on the books last year, and three of them were bigger failures than the Singleton contract.

Look at this list and get outta here with claiming that "long term deals are unwise under almost any circumstances".

[wildcard]

No,  We don't know that Hays can stay healthy and we don't know if Mountcastle is just a DH.   I would rather wait and pay more if they turn out to be good.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

No,  We don't know that Hays can stay healthy and we don't know if Mountcastle is just a DH.   I would rather wait and pay more if they turn out to be good.

But then you get to pay more.

Heck you can wait until they are free agents to have as much data as possible like they did with Davis, O'Day, and Trumbo.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But then you get to pay more.

Heck you can wait until they are free agents to have as much data as possible like they did with Davis, O'Day, and Trumbo.

I doubt Elias and Sig would have done any of those deals.