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O's are favorite to sign Top 30 International prospect

Greg Pappas

By Greg Pappas
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Redskins Rick
Redskins Rick

Very encouraging, 6'3, reminds me of another tall Oriole SS, we had for a couple of years.

Greg Pappas
Greg Pappas

VERY encouraging. 

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

His last game there was in 2006, when he was 22 years old. If you don't get the point I'm trying to make I don't know what to tell you.

Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His last game there was in 2006, when he was 22 years old.

If you don't get the point I'm trying to make I don't know what to tell you.

As an Oriole SS, which was my point.

I was drawing parallels between Cal Jr and Maikol, but you knew that.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

As an Oriole SS, which was my point.

I was drawing parallels between Cal Jr and Maikol, but you knew that.

And I was providing Reynolds as a counter point (and a very optimistic potential outcome).  Just because a kid is playing SS at 16 doesn't mean he stays there.

Most promising 16 year old baseball players are some combination of pitcher and shortstop.  If he was being projected as a second baseman at 16 I'd be worried.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I was providing Reynolds as a counter point (and a very optimistic potential outcome).  Just because a kid is playing SS at 16 doesn't mean he stays there.

Most promising 16 year old baseball players are some combination of pitcher and shortstop.  If he was being projected as a second baseman at 16 I'd be worried.

Good point.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Excellent news. 

But it's hard to get too excited about a player who, even in the most hopelessly optimistic case, will not be in Baltimore for 3-4 years.  In the US this guy would be in the 10th or 11th grade.  If all goes reasonably well, the likely case is that he hits MLB free agency in 2032 or 2033.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Excellent news. 

But it's hard to get too excited about a player who, even in the most hopelessly optimistic case, will not be in Baltimore for 3-4 years.  In the US this guy would be in the 10th or 11th grade.  If all goes reasonably well, the likely case is that he hits MLB free agency in 2032 or 2033.

That's the highly optimistic scenario.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I was providing Reynolds as a counter point (and a very optimistic potential outcome).  Just because a kid is playing SS at 16 doesn't mean he stays there.

Most promising 16 year old baseball players are some combination of pitcher and shortstop.  If he was being projected as a second baseman at 16 I'd be worried.

If he were being projected as a second baseman at 16 he wouldn't be on anyone's top prospect lists.

I need a copy of Visio so I can put together a flow chart for this.  Short version is if you can't be a SS/CF at 16, and you don't hit like a first baseman, and you're not a catcher, then you're hoping to get into a DII/DIII school and really trying to get your degree.  Mike Fontenot is my go-to counter-example for a guy who was a second baseman from early on, but I'm betting even he played some short in high school.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's the highly optimistic scenario.

Highly optimistic is that he's ARod or Manny and is up by 19 or 20 and hits free agency six years later, which is about 2030 or 2031.  Reasonably optimistic is he's up by 21 or 22 and he's a free agent by '32 or '33.  If it takes him eight years to get to the majors he's probably just not that good.

Jonathan Scoop was playing DOSL at 17, and is supposed to be a free agent after this year, right?  So 11-12 years after signing?  That would be 2031-32 for this guy.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Highly optimistic is that he's ARod or Manny and is up by 19 or 20 and hits free agency six years later, which is about 2030 or 2031.  Reasonably optimistic is he's up by 21 or 22 and he's a free agent by '32 or '33.  If it takes him eight years to get to the majors he's probably just not that good.

Jonathan Scoop was playing DOSL at 17, and is supposed to be a free agent after this year, right?  So 11-12 years after signing?  That would be 2031-32 for this guy.

I'm sticking with the idea that if the #29 International prospect makes the majors at all it counts as huge win.  The odds of him having a long enough career to hit FA because of accumulated service time is remote.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sticking with the idea that if the #29 International prospect makes the majors at all it counts as huge win.  The odds of him having a long enough career to hit FA because of accumulated service time is remote.

Sure.  Odds are he hits .225 at Frederick (or wherever the A ball team ends up) and we never hear from him again.  Think Jomar Reyes, who was a 16-year-old shortstop, is now a 22-year-old first baseman who seems like he's been OPSing .690 with the Keys since the Carter administration.

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