O's are favorite to sign Top 30 International prospect

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sticking with the idea that if the #29 International prospect makes the majors at all it counts as huge win.  The odds of him having a long enough career to hit FA because of accumulated service time is remote.

Just as a funny FYI. The 29th international prospect from 2015 is Carlos Vargas, just turned 21, his 4th season last year,  it looks like he moved from SS to Corner Infielder.

 

[rudyrooster]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sticking with the idea that if the #29 International prospect makes the majors at all it counts as huge win.  The odds of him having a long enough career to hit FA because of accumulated service time is remote.

Man, you've got to be the most contrary person on OH.  Just go ahead and change your avatar to "Debbie Downer".

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

Man, you've got to be the most contrary person on OH.  Just go ahead and change your avatar to "Debbie Downer".

I'm pleased they have made progress but seriously, they aren't catching up to other teams right now, they are, at best, keeping pace.

I'm not going to pretend that this guy is liable to turn into anything.  Do you think this guy is likely to have any sort of career in the majors?

[Aristotelian]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sticking with the idea that if the #29 International prospect makes the majors at all it counts as huge win.  The odds of him having a long enough career to hit FA because of accumulated service time is remote.

Of course. These guys are all lottery tickets to an extent. But having one is better than having zero, which is what we have had for a long, long time. Start building a pipeline and eventually we will hit on one of them, and that's all it takes. 

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Of course. These guys are all lottery tickets to an extent. But having one is better than having zero, which is what we have had for a long, long time. Start building a pipeline and eventually we will hit on one of them, and that's all it takes. 

No doubt there is strength in numbers.  The failure rate among prospects is quite high. One can only sign as many good ones as recommended by the scouting/analytic guys and hope for the best.

Internationally, there is more value at the lower bonus ranges, but to pass on a well-regarded prospect is ridiculous.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

No doubt there is strength in numbers.  The failure rate among prospects is quite high. One can only sign as many good ones as recommended by the scouting/analytic guys and hope for the best.

Internationally, there is more value at the lower bonus ranges, but to pass on a well-regarded prospect is ridiculous.

They really are all lottery picks, just better odds than the Powerball. Where was Tim Beckham drafted? How about Mike Piazza?

[scOtt]

3 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Mike Piazza

Pennsylvania boy! I didn't know that. Or didn't remember that.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not going to pretend that this guy is liable to turn into anything.  Do you think this guy is likely to have any sort of career in the majors?

Interesting question.    Based on the fact that about 25-30% of major leaguers come from overseas, being the no. 29 foreign amateur is probably akin to being the number 70-90 draft pick.    Probably 25-33% chance of reaching the majors, 10-15% chance of being a 5+ WAR player.    

[fitzi22]

23 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Excellent news. 

But it's hard to get too excited about a player who, even in the most hopelessly optimistic case, will not be in Baltimore for 3-4 years.  In the US this guy would be in the 10th or 11th grade.  If all goes reasonably well, the likely case is that he hits MLB free agency in 2032 or 2033.

I think it’s a good rule of thumb to assume 5 years development for these guys ..... at least.  Although encouraging, this is shaping up to being our best international class ever, it is probably only middle of the road in MLB.  Next year should be a rather fantastic class as Kolby’s connections and tons of $$$$ lineup.  But this still puts us 5-6 or more years away from seeing the fruits of these efforts.  I’m glad to see this aspect of the O’s do a 180 but it just shows how far away we are from trusty competing again.  I have a hard time thinking we will be in the playoff picture until 5-6 years from now when our current crop of prospects hit their prime and these international guys start trickling in to the majors.

Edited May 6, 2020 by fitzi22

[CallMeBrooksie]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm pleased they have made progress but seriously, they aren't catching up to other teams right now, they are, at best, keeping pace.

You don't think that they've made up any ground at all from a few years ago to right now? Keeping pace at-best would mean no discernible progress, no?

If they nab a couple of these guys on the "top whatever" int'l prospect lists this year, then it will be an improvement over last year's J2... which was a nice step up from any prior year's haul. This more or less corroborates his public statements of how this process doesn't mature overnight, but that we're making big steps to get there.

It's easy enough to throw a wet blanket over most things Orioles-related these days... but this isn't one of them.

 

[Can_of_corn]

33 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

You don't think that they've made up any ground at all from a few years ago to right now? Keeping pace at-best would mean no discernible progress, no?

If they nab a couple of these guys on the "top whatever" int'l prospect lists this year, then it will be an improvement over last year's J2... which was a nice step up from any prior year's haul. This more or less corroborates his public statements of how this process doesn't mature overnight, but that we're making big steps to get there.

It's easy enough to throw a wet blanket over most things Orioles-related these days... but this isn't one of them.

 

Sure they are making progress.  But they are advancing from last to the bottom Fifth or so.  

What they are doing now is about the minimum that is acceptable.

[CallMeBrooksie]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure they are making progress.  But they are advancing from last to the bottom Fifth or so.  

What they are doing now is about the minimum that is acceptable.

When I read "at best, keeping pace" and "minimum that is acceptable" it makes me think your are evaluating their efforts in a vacuum and ignoring all context like where they started from and how this game is played.

I suppose you don't put any weight behind the administrations words that this is a several year journey to build to a place where we can consistently acquire top talent?

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure they are making progress.  But they are advancing from last to the bottom Fifth or so.  

What they are doing now is about the minimum that is acceptable.

I think that's a pessimistic view.  We don't know what's possible within the constraints the new regime are under, both internally and systemically.

But it is a challenge to catch up when the other 29 teams are trying to improve at at least the same rate the Orioles are.  I've said before that the Orioles problem from 1980-something until 2010 or so was that they were improving at 1% a year while the competition was at 2%.  They got a little better every year and still lost ground.

[OsEatAlEast]

12 hours ago, scOtt said:

Pennsylvania boy! I didn't know that. Or didn't remember that.

There was a high likelihood that the O's would have signed him as a amateur free agent had he not been Tommy Lasorda's Godson. Even then he had to lobby pretty hard to get the Dodgers to take a flyer on him.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

When I read "at best, keeping pace" and "minimum that is acceptable" it makes me think your are evaluating their efforts in a vacuum and ignoring all context like where they started from and how this game is played.

I suppose you don't put any weight behind the administrations words that this is a several year journey to build to a place where we can consistently acquire top talent?

 

 

Did you read the part where I said they are making progress?

Look at it like they are in a race.  They are behind and now, instead of falling further behind, they are now keeping pace with the other slower runners.  The faster runners are still pulling further ahead, albeit at a slower rate than before.

Until they can start gaining on the frontrunners I just can't get too excited.