Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[Beef Supreme]

On 6/13/2020 at 10:10 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

I believe its been 150 years since there wasn't any organized baseball.  There was still baseball during WW1 and WW2.  There is no excuse for there not to be baseball now.  There was baseball during the Spanish Flu too.

Viruses weren't even discovered until 1926. Limiting our thinking today to fit our ignorance of 100 years ago is no absolute justification for anything, whether related to baseball or anything else. If it were, you should give up the smart phone and internet connection.

[Beef Supreme]

On 6/14/2020 at 12:14 PM, Number5 said:

If the draft order next year is determined in the standard way, I think we may have some real surprises in the order.  There are always teams that underperform and overperform, but this year, in particular, may have some strange results record-wise, due to the expected short season.  Winning and losing streaks will have a larger impact on the final results this year, IMO.

This is why I think they will institute a lottery-based system that relies on this year's records as well as last year's. Maybe some other factors also, e.g. 2019 Team WAR, 2020 Team WAR, etc.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

This is why I think they will institute a lottery-based system that relies on this year's records as well as last year's. Maybe some other factors also, e.g. 2019 Team WAR, 2020 Team WAR, etc.

They won't use WAR, it would be W/L record.

[Beef Supreme]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They won't use WAR, it would be W/L record.

Are you saying that you think 2020 W/L is the only factor they will use. Or do you think 2019 W/L or a mix of both will affect draft order?
And do you think they might do a lottery system?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Are you saying that you think 2020 W/L is the only factor they will use. Or do you think 2019 W/L or a mix of both will affect draft order?
And do you think they might do a lottery system?

It depends.

If they play the full 60 game schedule (at least most teams) I think they just use 2020.

If the season gets stopped I think they use a combination of 2019 and 2020.

I do not think they will use a lottery, if they do I expect it to be rigged.

[Beef Supreme]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It depends.

If they play the full 60 game schedule (at least most teams) I think they just use 2020.

If the season gets stopped I think they use a combination of 2019 and 2020.

I do not think they will use a lottery, if they do I expect it to be rigged.

Aren't they all...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/magazine/money-issue-iowa-lottery-fraud-mystery.html

 

[joelala]

15 hours ago, higgybaby said:

What do you like about him?

 The Bat and hand speed. He drops his hands a bit too much at times, but he’s young. This is a bit absurd, and I say it only about how the swing LOOKS, but it reminds me of Ken Griffey’s swing but with a two handed finish. Again, not in any way comparing him to Griffey, but he has a beautiful swing. 
 

And from reports he will stick in CF as a potential plus defender and a plus runner. He’s a potential 5 tool super star. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 8/4/2020 at 9:35 AM, joelala said:

 The Bat and hand speed. He drops his hands a bit too much at times, but he’s young. This is a bit absurd, and I say it only about how the swing LOOKS, but it reminds me of Ken Griffey’s swing but with a two handed finish. Again, not in any way comparing him to Griffey, but he has a beautiful swing. 
 

And from reports he will stick in CF as a potential plus defender and a plus runner. He’s a potential 5 tool super star. 

Seems like he'd be a perfect addition to our current prospect group as well. We haven't really taken a guy who projects to be a stud CF. We have pitchers already (could always use more), the C, a COF, and Elias seems to collect SSs who may need to move to 3B/2B/1B in the draft like it's his job (sort of is, I guess).

[joelala]

11 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Seems like he'd be a perfect addition to our current prospect group as well. We haven't really taken a guy who projects to be a stud CF. We have pitchers already (could always use more), the C, a COF, and Elias seems to collect SSs who may need to move to 3B/2B/1B in the draft like it's his job (sort of is, I guess).

Yup, I would love to see us take a high upside 5-tool guy like this. 

[hutchead]

Well, after a great start, we're now only three games behind for the worst record in baseball. Of course, we're not sure yet how next year's draft will be determined due to COVID.

[ShoelesJoe]

20 hours ago, hutchead said:

Well, after a great start, we're now only three games behind for the worst record in baseball. Of course, we're not sure yet how next year's draft will be determined due to COVID.

I see only three practical options wrt determining the order of next year's draft:

 

1) 2020 record (based on winning % if teams don't play the same number of games)

2) 2019 record + 2020 record.

3) Record over the previous 162 games (all of 2020 plus the last 100 or so games in 2019). 

 

Any others that I'm just not thinking of? In any case, given the Orioles' next 20 games are deadly we should be at or near the top in all of those scenarios by the end of this season. 

 

[beantownrefugee]

This article from The Score indicates that "sources" tell Baseball America there isn't expected to be any change in how the draft order is determined.  Is anyone here a Baseball America subscriber and able to read the original report?

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2012384/report-2021-mlb-draft-to-be-held-in-atlanta-before-all-star-game

The 2021 MLB Draft will take place in Atlanta from July 11 to 13, sources told Carlos Collazo and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America.

Next year's event will be at least 20 rounds - and up to as many as 30 - based on an agreement between the league and the Major League Baseball Players Association, according to Collazo and Cooper.

The draft will reportedly be tied to the All-Star Game festivities in Atlanta next year. The Home Run Derby is scheduled to take place on July 12 and the Midsummer Classic will be played on the 13.

There isn't expected to be changes to how the draft order is determined, sources told Collazo and Cooper. However, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has the power to change the order amid a shortened campaign, an any decision is not expected anytime soon.

[Just Regular]

MLB Pipeline did a Top 10 on their podcast this week, including shreds on I guess NCAA sophomores who like Kjerstad in February/March may have done stuff for a few weeks.  It also acquainted me with the demographics of the basket where 1-5 will be one of them.

Pirates 1 - Lawlar the HS shortstop

Rangers 2 - Kumar

Tigers 3 - McClain, some Madrigal-sized middle infielder from UCLA, maybe/maybe not SS

Red Sox 4 - del Castillo, some slugging catcher from "The U" deemed best hitter in draft

Orioles 5 - Leiter (I'd be glad with this outcome for polish going towards 2022 usefulness)

D'Backs 6 - Jake Hill, the LSU right-hander, non-Vanderbilt best of SEC rest.   Guessing Ben may know him some.

Royals 7 - Jud Zabian, Florida OF   

<mock now at 6 straight NCAA after the high school SS character who seems impossible to get to 1-5>

<hosts say these Top 7 are a clear tier in whatever order they fall>

Rockies 8 - Alex Vanellas, Louisville 3B

Angels 9 - Marcelo Mayer, high school SS #2

Mets 10 - James Wood, IMG Academy high school OF

<nary a high school pitcher in these 10, though with draft pushed back to July, the Nick Bitsko analogs born in 2003 will have some extra time to strut their stuff, in case the next Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett or Dylan Bundy can only Netflix and chill right now>

 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 12/4/2020 at 11:27 PM, OrioleDog said:

MLB Pipeline did a Top 10 on their podcast this week, including shreds on I guess NCAA sophomores who like Kjerstad in February/March may have done stuff for a few weeks.  It also acquainted me with the demographics of the basket where 1-5 will be one of them.

Pirates 1 - Lawlar the HS shortstop

Rangers 2 - Kumar

Tigers 3 - McClain, some Madrigal-sized middle infielder from UCLA, maybe/maybe not SS

Red Sox 4 - del Castillo, some slugging catcher from "The U" deemed best hitter in draft

Orioles 5 - Leiter (I'd be glad with this outcome for polish going towards 2022 usefulness)

D'Backs 6 - Jake Hill, the LSU right-hander, non-Vanderbilt best of SEC rest.   Guessing Ben may know him some.

Royals 7 - Jud Zabian, Florida OF   

<mock now at 6 straight NCAA after the high school SS character who seems impossible to get to 1-5>

<hosts say these Top 7 are a clear tier in whatever order they fall>

Rockies 8 - Alex Vanellas, Louisville 3B

Angels 9 - Marcelo Mayer, high school SS #2

Mets 10 - James Wood, IMG Academy high school OF

<nary a high school pitcher in these 10, though with draft pushed back to July, the Nick Bitsko analogs born in 2003 will have some extra time to strut their stuff, in case the next Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett or Dylan Bundy can only Netflix and chill right now>

 

 

Interesting that Bishop isn’t included 

[El_Duderino]

5. Orioles: Jaden Hill, RHP, Louisiana State
Hill pitched just 21 2/3 innings in his first two years at Louisiana State because of a strained elbow in 2019 and the shortened season last spring. Yet he's similar to Rocker with less slider but more changeup, nearly as much physicality and better athleticism.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-first-10-picks-for-2021