Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

And this is why I hate reporters.  Elias has a total of two drafts that he has ran.   In exactly one of them they saved cash with their first round pick by going underslot.  That hardly makes it an 'annual exercise'.  For all anyone knows,  last year was a unique year and the underslot strategy won't be seen again by the Os.  Or it could happen every year.   We don't know yet, and to blatantly say it's an annual exercise is ridiculous.  But that's modern sensationalism reporting.  That said I hope they take the BPA, unless they really have multiple guys all bunched around the same grade, and in that case it makes sense to save cash to have more to spend later. 

Technically, Elias did save cash in 2019, as Rutschman signed for $8.1 mm compared to slot $8.42 mm.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Technically, Elias did save cash in 2019, as Rutschman signed for $8.1 mm compared to slot $8.42 mm.

But that is not even as much as you get paid to post here.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/3/2021 at 2:32 PM, wildcard said:

But that is not even as much as you get paid to post here.

As the saying goes "We are all witnesses"

[calsmanystances]

Fangraphs mock has us passing on Watson, Lawlar, Jobe and Rocker to take Cowser. Davis went 4th to Boston and Leiter went 2nd to Texas.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/

5. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

The Orioles would love to see something strange happen ahead of them in order to access one of Leiter or Davis, and they’ll jump on the opportunity if it presents itself. Barring that, they’ll likely cut a deal on one of the college outfielders, with Colton Cowser and Sal Frelick being the most frequently mentioned names. Cowser feels like the pick here, as some models (and the Orioles lean heavily on models) have him behind only Davis in terms of offensive potential among the college bats. If House is on the board here then he might be the value pick Baltimore is hoping for. Watson’s name was mentioned with this club earlier in the process, too.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX)

The Diamondbacks get to take their pick of two of the high school shortstops (Watson, Lawlar) in this scenario, which felt like a pipe dream about a month ago. They’d likely discuss Rocker here, but our sources believe they’d prioritize the prep shortstops and would choose between Lawlar and Watson. Once seen as a potential No. 1 pick, Lawlar’s age and some minor swing-and-miss tendencies have him slipping a bit, but this is still great value at six. Cowser also feels like a player this team would be on. Remember to stash away Noah Miller’s name for a later round here.

7. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

At some point a team will see Rocker, who still pitched pretty well with suppressed stuff in 2021, as too good a value to pass on. They’ll see the player he was more recently (low-90s, living off of pitch execution, fourth starter look) as his floor, with the upside that he returns to (and sustains) peak form as better than their other options. If Rocker goes ahead of this, then House, Jobe and Watson are the names attached to this pick. We’re not sure how the club views Lawlar since he hasn’t been expected to fall to them at all, but in this scenario he’s just a different D-backs pick (either Rocker or Watson) from being available here.

8. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)

Last mock, we said Colorado would be hoping for one of the high school hitters to fall here and in this scenario, Watson does. It sounds like Cowser would also be in the mix here if he lasts this long. This is supposedly where Pennsylvania prepster Benny Montgomery’s market begins, but he’s more consistently mentioned in the middle of the round.

9. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)

The Angels rumors have been all over the board but they’re in a spot where one of the nine players mocked so far will fall to them and be considered good value. This is probably the ceiling for Texas right-hander Ty Madden, and there is a late rumor of them starting to kick the tires on two-way prep star Bubba Chandler, who is seen by most as more of second-half of the first round talent. Jobe, who might go as high as three, has some of the best raw stuff in the draft and has impressed this spring with his ability to harness it within the zone.

 

[Hazmat]

57 minutes ago, calsmanystances said:

Fangraphs mock has us passing on Watson, Lawlar, Jobe and Rocker to take Cowser. Davis went 4th to Boston and Leiter went 2nd to Texas.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/

5. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

The Orioles would love to see something strange happen ahead of them in order to access one of Leiter or Davis, and they’ll jump on the opportunity if it presents itself. Barring that, they’ll likely cut a deal on one of the college outfielders, with Colton Cowser and Sal Frelick being the most frequently mentioned names. Cowser feels like the pick here, as some models (and the Orioles lean heavily on models) have him behind only Davis in terms of offensive potential among the college bats. If House is on the board here then he might be the value pick Baltimore is hoping for. Watson’s name was mentioned with this club earlier in the process, too.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX)

The Diamondbacks get to take their pick of two of the high school shortstops (Watson, Lawlar) in this scenario, which felt like a pipe dream about a month ago. They’d likely discuss Rocker here, but our sources believe they’d prioritize the prep shortstops and would choose between Lawlar and Watson. Once seen as a potential No. 1 pick, Lawlar’s age and some minor swing-and-miss tendencies have him slipping a bit, but this is still great value at six. Cowser also feels like a player this team would be on. Remember to stash away Noah Miller’s name for a later round here.

7. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

At some point a team will see Rocker, who still pitched pretty well with suppressed stuff in 2021, as too good a value to pass on. They’ll see the player he was more recently (low-90s, living off of pitch execution, fourth starter look) as his floor, with the upside that he returns to (and sustains) peak form as better than their other options. If Rocker goes ahead of this, then House, Jobe and Watson are the names attached to this pick. We’re not sure how the club views Lawlar since he hasn’t been expected to fall to them at all, but in this scenario he’s just a different D-backs pick (either Rocker or Watson) from being available here.

8. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)

Last mock, we said Colorado would be hoping for one of the high school hitters to fall here and in this scenario, Watson does. It sounds like Cowser would also be in the mix here if he lasts this long. This is supposedly where Pennsylvania prepster Benny Montgomery’s market begins, but he’s more consistently mentioned in the middle of the round.

9. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)

The Angels rumors have been all over the board but they’re in a spot where one of the nine players mocked so far will fall to them and be considered good value. This is probably the ceiling for Texas right-hander Ty Madden, and there is a late rumor of them starting to kick the tires on two-way prep star Bubba Chandler, who is seen by most as more of second-half of the first round talent. Jobe, who might go as high as three, has some of the best raw stuff in the draft and has impressed this spring with his ability to harness it within the zone.

 

So we'd jump on Leiter or Davis but pass on Lawlar?  

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 hours ago, Hazmat said:

So we'd jump on Leiter or Davis but pass on Lawlar?  

Yea, I'm not quite sure how Davis has become the name that we are supposedly pining for...?

[OriolesMagic83]

I think Elias is going to go for an elite bat with athleticism.  I don't think he will draft a pitcher unless for some bizarre reason Leiter is available at #5. If the O's have the choice between Watson, House, and Lawler, who does Elias chose?  I don't see Elias choosing Davis either, because he is not great defensively.  What if he ends up at a corner OF or 1B/DH?  Would you chose him if you knew he would end up at 1B/OF?

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Elias is going to go for an elite bat with athleticism.  I don't think he will draft a pitcher unless for some bizarre reason Leiter is available at #5. If the O's have the choice between Watson, House, and Lawler, who does Elias chose?  I don't see Elias choosing Davis either, because he is not great defensively.  What if he ends up at a corner OF or 1B/DH?  Would you chose him if you knew he would end up at 1B/OF?

If his bat could play at those positions?  Of course.

Would you have not taken Tork last year?