They are who we thought they were!

[makoman]

57 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All analogies only go so far.  The draft lottery tickets are much more likely to hit than a real one.  You probably have a 1-in-3 chance of a the #1 overall pick being a good player, while the #30 is probably more like 1-in-6 or 1-in-10 or something, with the likely difference in value pegged at $10s of millions.

The #1 pick has produced 29 ten career rWAR players. #2 gave 24, #3 gave 20, #4 15. It goes slowly down with a few anomalies. Picks 21-30 average 7 per spot. 

So given around 50 drafts, as no one recent could be expected to have 10 WAR yet, you got almost a 60% chance of a pretty successful pick at #1, down to around a 14% chance at the back end of the first round. One can define successful how they want but Wieters doesn’t even have 20 WAR and he’s fine, so 10 seemed a good enough place. 

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, makoman said:

The #1 pick has produced 29 ten career rWAR players. #2 gave 24, #3 gave 20, #4 15. It goes slowly down with a few anomalies. Picks 21-30 average 7 per spot. 

So given around 50 drafts, as no one recent could be expected to have 10 WAR yet, you got almost a 60% chance of a pretty successful pick at #1, down to around a 14% chance at the back end of the first round. One can define successful how they want but Wieters doesn’t even have 20 WAR and he’s fine, so 10 seemed a good enough place. 

Thanks for running the numbers.  I'm good with 10, because lower than that and you get the impression that almost nobody is any good.

In history there have been 569 position players as good or better than Brian Roberts (29 wins and change).  Let's just say 600 position player become pros every year (20 per team for 30 teams, used to be less MLB teams but more MiLB teams), and pro baseball's been a thing for 150 years.  So almost 100,000 pro players ever.  Very roughly a 0.5% chance of becoming Brian Roberts the day you sign your first pro contract, on average. 10 WAR is more like 1.5%.

[OFFNY]

o

 

The Orioles suffer a crushing loss to the Yankees on a 9th-inning home run by Aaron Judge.

The Orioles immediately rebound from the crushing loss to the Yankees, and sweep the highly-regarded Tampa Bay Rays.

The Orioles get swept 4 games straight by the lowly-regarded Florida Marlins.

In the 4-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins, the Oriole offense scores only 1 Run in the first 3 games of said sweep (2 of which were only 7-Inning games.)

The Oriole offense comes alive in the 4th and final game of the Marlins series, but the pitching and defense lets them down in an 8-7 loss.

The Oriole offense continues where it left off in the final game of the Marlins series ........ this time aided by excellent pitching and defense in an 11-0 rout of the defending world champion Washington Nationals.

 

 

I don't know who I thought these guys were in the 1st place, and I don't know who they are now ........ I'm just hanging on tight for the Orange-and-Black ride in this strange, roller-coasterish, pandemic-shortened season.

 

o

[OFFNY]

o

 

The Orioles really ought to be 8-7 ........ but 7-7 isn't bad, either.

 

14 Games into Season, O’s Have Plenty to Feel Good About

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/a-not-quite-yet-sweep-and-a-strange-day-in-washington.html

 

o

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles really ought to be 8-7 ........ but 7-7 isn't bad, either.

 

14 Games into Season, O’s Have Plenty to Feel Good About

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/a-not-quite-yet-sweep-and-a-strange-day-in-washington.html

 

o

This was a nice read.  And that's not sarcasm.

[OFFNY]

On 8/10/2020 at 6:27 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles really ought to be 8-7 ........ but 7-7 isn't bad, either.

 

14 Games into Season, O’s Have Plenty to Feel Good About

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/a-not-quite-yet-sweep-and-a-strange-day-in-washington.html

 

o

o

 

When all is said and done, the 2020 Orioles could well wind up going about 22-38 overall ........ but some of their fans have ever-so-flickering dreams of a winning season of something like 32-28 or better, and a l "Cinderell-O" l season.

 

 

 

o

[OFFNY]

o

 

Some anxiety for the optimistic Oriole fan ........ 

 

Are 3 Losses in 4 Games Just a Bump in the Road for O’s?

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/are-three-losses-in-four-just-a-bump-in-the-road-for-os.html

 

o

[HowAboutThat]

Meh. We are having fun but we’re not really a good team. Improving, yes, but not good.

a really good team would have gotten the outs against the Nats, instead of having three little blips become hits.

I’m not saying those were badly played balls, it’s just a better player will get to the ball faster, throw it harder, more quickly, more accurately and get the out. 
And there are countless little “mistakes” that aren’t called errors, or even necessarily called bad fundamental baseball, that happen every game.

We are clearly better than last year’s team, and we have some real improvement from a few players, and we have some surprising performers from a few other players, and we should enjoy that.

It is clear that management does not share our enthusiasm, because the most common complaint on this board is that management is not bringing up players who are ready, and presumably would be better than some of the slop we have now.
I haven’t heard any quotes from management about why they are not bringing up any of those players, but there’s no reason.

Like I said, “ride the train while theres coal in the tender.”
 

[OFFNY]

On 8/18/2020 at 2:00 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

Some anxiety for the optimistic Oriole fan ........ 

 

Are 3 Losses in 4 Games Just a Bump in the Road for O’s?

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/are-three-losses-in-four-just-a-bump-in-the-road-for-os.html

 

o

o

 

Our scrappy, presumably over-matched Orioles have now lost 5 out of their last 6 games, including a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. 

12-12 feels pretty darned bad right this minute. 

 

o

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Our scrappy, presumably over-matched Orioles have now lost 5 out of their last 6 games, including a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. 

12-12 feels pretty darned bad right this minute. 

 

o

Some of us wondered if they would win 12 games total...lol  It’s a miracle. 

 

 

[HowAboutThat]

Here’s another analogy: water finds its own level.
In time talent reveals itself.

Hyde and the puppet masters above him are doing us no favors by refusing to call up prospects, and by continuing to play Davis, but the guys we have are just revealing themselves to be limited.

I was, and to a certain extent still am, hoping that the Guys can play above themselves for 60 games, but at the moment it doesn’t appear that that’s happening. We’ve had a little bit of really sloppy play, but we’ve also had a lot of just “who we are”

Pick a name, any name, and he’s not very good. Combine that with the insistence on playing Davis and the refusal to call up any prospects, and yeah, we’ve had some fun, but…Eventually you gotta get out of the pool.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Philip

[OFFNY]

o

 

And those perky Floridians just may be who we thought THEY were, also ........ a bona-fide perennial contender, coming off of back-to-back seasons of 90 or more wins in 2018 and 2019.

 

 

 

o

[maybenxtyr]

4 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Some of us wondered if they would win 12 games total...lol  It’s a miracle. 

 

 

I was in the camp of 12-15 wins. I'm glad they have had a decent start of the season, I just wish it was due in part to young pieces of the next contending team doing it. 

[Beef Supreme]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Pick a name, any name, and he’s not very good. Combine that with the insistence on playing Davis and the refusal to call up any prospects, and yeah, we’ve had some fun, but…Eventually you gotta get out of the pool.

Santander is good, at the very least. He's a legitimate MLB hitter. And he probably is still improving. 

Maybe he's not an All Star. Or a HOFer. But he is a player who could find a home on a dozen MLB rosters, if not more. 

I have been pumping Santander for three years running and I am not going to stop now. Where's Roy when I need him?

[HowAboutThat]

6 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Santander is good, at the very least. He's a legitimate MLB hitter. And he probably is still improving. 

Maybe he's not an All Star. Or a HOFer. But he is a player who could find a home on a dozen MLB rosters, if not more. 

I have been pumping Santander for three years running and I am not going to stop now. Where's Roy when I need him?

Oh I like Santander a lot, I wasn’t really referring to him. I actually think he’s our most likely trade guy, because he has reasonable value and cause we have a battalion of outfielders waiting to play right. The bulk of the guys on the roster, though, are cannon fodder, and one ~2WAR player isn’t going to carry the team.