Future of the pen

[Sports Guy]

In a normal season, the Os would have had a 7 man bullpen.  3 of those 7 players would have been Bleier, Givens and Castro. They are all gone.

I mentioned earlier that there is talk that lots of non tenders will be out there this offseason because of the money lost.  I think that was at least part of the motivation to get rid of those guys.

If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.  Right now, if guys are healthy, you can likely peg guys like Armstrong, Scott, Harvey and Tate to be in the 2021 pen.  You also have a plethora of young arms that will likely be given the chance to start at first but not all, if any, will make it there.  
 

On top of those guys, you have Zach Pop coming back, who should be ready to go right off the bat next year (although he will obviously be rusty and needs some time).

You also have the possibility of adding more potential BP depth in terms of the several PTBNL we have coming to us.

In other words, what I think Elias is building towards is a very cheap bullpen.  A lot of hard throwing, high strikeout, swing and miss type guys.

 Bleier, Givens and Castro probably cost at least 10M next year.  Not much reason to hold onto those guys if you can get quality value, save money and replace them with guys who can/will be part of the next good Os team.

 

[luismatos4prez]

8 man bullpens are the norm now with 26 man rosters.

I see the mix in 2021 being:

Locks: Harvey, Fry, Scott

Probable: Lakins, Sulser

Long Man Competition: Zimmermann, Valdez, Lopez (choose 1 or 2)

On the bubble: Phillips, Mattson, Armstrong, Tate

AAA depth: Hess, Pop, Carroll, Kline, Alvarado, etc.

[Beef Supreme]

Funny thing is that I felt pretty confidant today that Valdez was going to shut down the Jays. Lotta movement. A little luck helped a lot, as it turned out.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

In a normal season, the Os would have had a 7 man bullpen.  3 of those 7 players would have been Bleier, Givens and Castro. They are all gone.

I mentioned earlier that there is talk that lots of non tenders will be out there this offseason because of the money lost.  I think that was at least part of the motivation to get rid of those guys.

If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.  Right now, if guys are healthy, you can likely peg guys like Armstrong, Scott, Harvey and Tate to be in the 2021 pen.  You also have a plethora of young arms that will likely be given the chance to start at first but not all, if any, will make it there.  
 

On top of those guys, you have Zach Pop coming back, who should be ready to go right off the bat next year (although he will obviously be rusty and needs some time).

You also have the possibility of adding more potential BP depth in terms of the several PTBNL we have coming to us.

In other words, what I think Elias is building towards is a very cheap bullpen.  A lot of hard throwing, high strikeout, swing and miss type guys.

 Bleier, Givens and Castro probably cost at least 10M next year.  Not much reason to hold onto those guys if you can get quality value, save money and replace them with guys who can/will be part of the next good Os team.

 

Very good analysis. It’s too early to speculate on who will stay, but there are four spots if we go with eight-man pen on a 26 man roster. I think it’s reasonable to assume that all four of those vacant spots will go to pre-arbitration guys.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, luismatos4prez said:

8 man bullpens are the norm now with 26 man rosters.

I see the mix in 2021 being:

Locks: Harvey, Fry, Scott

Probable: Lakins, Sulser

Long Man Competition: Zimmermann, Valdez, Lopez (choose 1 or 2)

On the bubble: Phillips, Mattson, Armstrong, Tate

AAA depth: Hess, Pop, Carroll, Kline, Alvarado, etc.

Phillips, Hess, Lopez, Carroll can be gone right now and no one will miss them a bit. No way will they be around with all the guys we have coming up.

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

8 man bullpens are the norm now with 26 man rosters.

I see the mix in 2021 being:

Locks: Harvey, Fry, Scott

Probable: Lakins, Sulser

Long Man Competition: Zimmermann, Valdez, Lopez (choose 1 or 2)

On the bubble: Phillips, Mattson, Armstrong, Tate

AAA depth: Hess, Pop, Carroll, Kline, Alvarado, etc.

Which of these guys closes games? Seems like we've got good depth with MLB potential but I'm not sure I'd trust any of them in a high leverage. Would be nice if we had one proven dependable arm. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

8 man bullpens are the norm now with 26 man rosters.

I see the mix in 2021 being:

Locks: Harvey, Fry, Scott

Probable: Lakins, Sulser

Long Man Competition: Zimmermann, Valdez, Lopez (choose 1 or 2)

On the bubble: Phillips, Mattson, Armstrong, Tate

AAA depth: Hess, Pop, Carroll, Kline, Alvarado, etc.

Closer: Harvey 

SU: Sulser, Scott

MR: Fry, Armstrong, Lakins, Tate

LR: Innings Eater

[luismatos4prez]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Phillips, Hess, Lopez, Carroll can be gone right now and no one will miss them a bit. No way will they be around with all the guys we have coming up.

Agreed on Hess and Carroll. Lopez seems like a serviceable enough long reliever and Phillips might eventually put it together like Tanner Scott has recently. He has ML stuff, just too many walks.

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Which of these guys closes games? Seems like we've got good depth with MLB potential but I'm not sure I'd trust any of them in a high leverage. Would be nice if we had one proven dependable arm. 

 

Hunter Harvey and Tanner Scott are the two best arms in that bunch. Definitely not proven or dependable though. There are free agents like Ken Giles, Kirby Yates, etc. next year, but I think we'll have to wait until winter 2021-2 for a big free agent splash.

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Closer: Harvey 

SU: Sulser, Scott

MR: Fry, Armstrong, Lakins, Tate

LR: Innings Eater

That's about where I'm at as well. I'd rank them Harvey, Scott, Fry, Lakins, Sulser, Tate, Armstrong

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Agreed on Hess and Carroll. Lopez seems like a serviceable enough long reliever and Phillips might eventually put it together like Tanner Scott has recently. He has ML stuff, just too many walks.

Hunter Harvey and Tanner Scott are the two best arms in that bunch. Definitely not proven or dependable though. There are free agents like Ken Giles, Kirby Yates, etc. next year, but I think we'll have to wait until winter 2021-2 for a big free agent splash.

That's about where I'm at as well. I'd rank them Harvey, Scott, Fry, Lakins, Sulser, Tate, Armstrong

Armstrong is easily better than Lakins and Sulser..likely better than Fry too but obviously different role.  

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

Very good analysis. It’s too early to speculate on who will stay, but there are four spots if we go with eight-man pen on a 26 man roster. I think it’s reasonable to assume that all four of those vacant spots will go to pre-arbitration guys.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign a cheap vet.  Maybe someone who gets non tendered and is being overlooked do to a poor ERA but peripherals are pretty good.  

[Can_of_corn]

Fungible.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fungible.

Exactly.  Bullpens are moving towards eight or nine anonymous, $550k pitchers who all strike out 11 men per nine.  With another dozen in AAA on ready standby.  Order them alphabetically and starting in the 5th inning Hyde sounds an airhorn and the first one up comes in.  Repeat six times, game over.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Exactly.  Bullpens are moving towards eight or nine anonymous, $550k pitchers who all strike out 11 men per nine.  With another dozen in AAA on ready standby.  Order them alphabetically and starting in the 5th inning Hyde sounds an airhorn and the first one up comes in.  Repeat six times, game over.

And I'm looking forward to it.

It's the smart way to go.

[sportsfan8703]

I can’t remember if any of these players are injured, but like it or not, we’re going to see Carroll, Phillips, Hess, and Hanhold, get more chances. They’re on the 40 man and we need to see what to do going into the offseason. 
 

Overall, I think the pen takes a step back next year because of the longer season, rotation???, and losing Givens/Castro. 
 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I'm looking forward to it.

It's the smart way to go.

It's smart, and it makes for a much less appealing form of entertainment.  Baseball is much better off when you have great players doing awesome things most of the time.  Now we have lineups of nine three true outcome players all trying to hit homers off of one of 13 anonymous pitchers who'll probably all pitch tonight for 11 pitches each.

Baseball is becoming more efficient and less entertaining by the day.  It's like the powers-that-be saw the Seinfeld bit about rooting for laundry and took it 100% literally.