Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

And somehow has only been worth 0.2 WAR so far.  Part of it is he's cooled off since his hot start (not surprising), but the other is his D-WAR is -0.6.  I know D-War is a really shaky statistic, but that's pretty bad, especially since he was -2.3 last year.

The other advanced defensive metrics all rate him negatively so far.    Still, I’d guess Arizona is pretty happy with his production.   fWAR has him at 0.7, compared to rWAR’s 0.2.    

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Brad Brach has, for the most part, continued his nice rebound that he had with the Braves after departing last summer.  2.20 ERA in 16.1 IP and has already been worth 0.5 WAR, in spite of a really bad WHIP and K-BB walk rate.  To his credit the walks have gotten a little better since the beginning of the season, and despite all of that he hasn't given up a run since April 19.

That's by bb-ref's rWAR, which basically gives the pitcher credit for how many runs are allowed on his watch without regard to underlying numbers.  By fWAR he's sitting at 0.1, because fWAR puts very heavy weight on the underlying K, BB, HR rates, and Brach is walking a batter an inning.

He has a 2.20 ERA, a 3.85 FIP and a 5.10 xFIP.  Unless he gets his control fixed his rWAR will make a beeline for his fWAR.

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The other advanced defensive metrics all rate him negatively so far.    Still, I’d guess Arizona is pretty happy with his production.   fWAR has him at 0.7, compared to rWAR’s 0.2.    

.225/.312/.708 over his last 30 games

 

[atomic]

32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's by bb-ref's rWAR, which basically gives the pitcher credit for how many runs are allowed on his watch without regard to underlying numbers.  By fWAR he's sitting at 0.1, because fWAR puts very heavy weight on the underlying K, BB, HR rates, and Brach is walking a batter an inning.

He has a 2.20 ERA, a 3.85 FIP and a 5.10 xFIP.  Unless he gets his control fixed his rWAR will make a beeline for his fWAR.

His FIP is in-line with his career numbers. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

.225/.312/.708 over his last 30 games

 

He’s always been a streaky guy.    Yet, his final slash line over 162 games tends to be pretty consistent.   The question going into the season is whether his power numbers, which dropped a lot last year, would recover.   So far so good in that department, though I expect that to drop off some from its current level.

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, atomic said:

His FIP is in-line with his career numbers. 

But the underlying numbers are different.  He's walking batters at more than twice his career rate.  And he hasn't allowed a homer yet.  He'll probably allow a homer or five, and we'll have to wait to see what's up with his control.

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s always been a streaky guy.   

Isn't everyone?

Steady Eddie Murray had the following consecutive-month OPS pairs during these years with the Orioles:

1977: .630/1.044
1978: .669/1.069
1979: .731/1.074
1980: 1.142/.827
1982: .733/.918
1983: 1.301/.652
1984: 1.161/.752

[Finisher]

Zach Davies with a 1.54 ERA in 46 innings. Regression incoming but he's been very solid for Brewcrew.

[interloper]

Wright coughed up another 2 runs in his latest outing with Seattle. 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 HR,  4 H. 

ERA this year stands at 8.44 and his ERA with Seattle is 6.75. 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Isn't everyone?

Steady Eddie Murray had the following consecutive-month OPS pairs during these years with the Orioles:

1977: .630/1.044
1978: .669/1.069
1979: .731/1.074
1980: 1.142/.827
1982: .733/.918
1983: 1.301/.652
1984: 1.161/.752

The answer is yes, everyone is pretty streaky.   I’d say Adam is above average in streakiness, though it’s hard to come up with a good way to measure that.   

[Ohfan67]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The answer is yes, everyone is pretty streaky.   I’d say Adam is above average in streakiness, though it’s hard to come up with a good way to measure that.   

There are many good ways to estimate and compare variation (coefficient of variation for example), but it gets weird when you compare two individuals. You can compare the CV’s of all qualifying players to Adam’s with a t-test designed to compare one sample to a mean. I think that would be appropriate. 

[Ripken]

Davies trade was incredibly stupid.

[HowAboutThat]

If anybody cares, Tim Beckham just had his 12th error with Seattle. 12 errors and a quarter of the season works out to about 48 for the year… Is that a lot?

Asking for a friend.

[HowAboutThat]

14 hours ago, Ripken said:

Davies trade was incredibly stupid.

Yes it was, But stupid moves by the previous regime were not uncommon.

[clapdiddy]

14 hours ago, Ripken said:

Davies trade was incredibly stupid.

I'd say it was the worst trade of the Duquette era.