What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol...Rutschman is a top prospect but he has no time above Delmarva and he wasn’t that good.  He needs some time to hit and play and gain experience.

He certainly could be up around the AS break.  I’m ok with that.  But I do think it matters how good he is playing AND where the team stands at that point.

Of course, if they just extend him immediately than it doesn’t matter when they bring him up.

Diaz certainly could have moved up but Not moving him to AAA means nothing.  He will be up by June 1 if he is healthy and performing. 

Yea, I'm a firm believer that the idea that top college bats need to spend times in the minors just isn't all that true.  He spent a "whole" season in the minors this year.  Take a look at recent catchers who were top 5 draft picks, they don't spend a lot of time in the minors.   He's going to be 23 this year, Sisco was in the majors at 22.  The only reason to keep him down is service related and it's a shame because it's probably going to cost him a lot of money.

I don't think there is a chance Diaz gets promoted until he is safely past the Super 2 deadline because the O's have no leverage in getting him to sign an extension due to the large signing bonus he received.  The purpose of not promoting him in 2019 was so Elias would have the excuse of claiming he "needed" to play at AAA and couldn't make the team out of camp.

 

So are you agreeing or disagreeing that the four or five players I mentioned could be the difference between 67 and 70 wins?

 

BTW, I liked you better before you started doing the LOL crap again.  I hope you don't continue to backslide and get personal.

 

[OFFNY]

o

 

2018: llll .290

2019: llll .333

2020: llll .417

2021: llllll. ???

 

o

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, I'm a firm believer that the idea that top college bats need to spend times in the minors just isn't all that true.  He spent a "whole" season in the minors this year.  Take a look at recent catchers who were top 5 draft picks, they don't spend a lot of time in the minors.   He's going to be 23 this year, Sisco was in the majors at 22.  The only reason to keep him down is service related and it's a shame because it's probably going to cost him a lot of money.

I don't think there is a chance Diaz gets promoted until he is safely past the Super 2 deadline because the O's have no leverage in getting him to sign an extension due to the large signing bonus he received.  The purpose of not promoting him in 2019 was so Elias would have the excuse of claiming he "needed" to play at AAA and couldn't make the team out of camp.

 

So are you agreeing or disagreeing that the four or five players I mentioned could be the difference between 67 and 70 wins?

 

BTW, I liked you better before you started doing the LOL crap again.  I hope you don't continue to backslide and get personal.

 

I just find it funny that these are your arguments.  You are literally complaining about something that happened with frequency this year.  Part of your complaint centers around a player who hasn’t pitched in 2 years.  It’s just non sensical to me that this is the sword you want to fall on.  If this team was going to contend, a little more aggression makes sense.  They won’t be contenders.

No, I don’t think they will matter that much.  I think it’s an overall team effort.

I said I expect the team to win 70-75 games...I’m said that not really considering the guys you mentioned for the most part.  Sure, I think those players will be up in 2021 but outside of Diaz, I don’t expect any of them to be up long enough to make a significant impact to where they are winning games for us.

If Adley tears it up and comes up here and is a ROY candidate then flirting with 500 isnt out of question for me.

In other words, I think these guys just add onto my expectations, which already would put us over for this question.
 

As for Diaz, I said I hope he’s up by June 1.  By mid to late May, he should be outside of super 2 status, so that would work out there anyway.  Beyond that, you still need a roster spot for him.  Right now, the team is pretty full in the CO, DH, 1st base positions.  There really isn’t a spot for him unless moves are made or injuries occur.  By 4-8 weeks into the season, this likely changes.  And btw, waiting a few to insure you save several millions down the road is smart provided that you don’t really need him at that time and right now, they don’t/won’t.

As for Rutschman, I don’t necessarily disagree with you but I still feel they need to go down and show some success imo.  He hasn’t come close to that yet.  If he goes to AA and years it up for a month or 2 and they want to bring him up, that’s fine with me but I do think they should see him doing that against live competition before just bringing him to the majors and burning a year of service time.

[Can_of_corn]

Who is falling on a sword?  I think I that the O's will win more games if Elias is aggressive with promotions than if he isn't.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who is falling on a sword?  I think I that the O's will win more games if Elias is aggressive with promotions than if he isn't.

 

You are.  This seems to be a consistent argument for you..that Elias isn’t promoting guys fast enough.

I think you have a little bit of a proper stance on this in some cases but otherwise, he’s promoting guys when they should.  You seem to want to ignore things like service time and super 2..things that are pretty important especially when the difference between promotion or not is still a sub 500 team, much less one who is a contender.

I certainly am fine with the idea that the Os called up Manny in 2012 but had they not and waited until mid April in 2013, Manny would have a lot more time here (I believe this year would have been his last year) and perhaps he fetches way more in trade.  Now, the team may not have made that 2012 playoff run without him so, again, I’m happy he was brought up but it could have been franchise changing had they held onto him and traded him with a lot more service time left.

In other words, you don’t bring them up (with no regards for service time) when the team is terrible unless you have a really legit reason.  Going from a 68 to 70 win team isn’t a legit reason. 

Saying all of that, there is more to factor in then just those wins.  I get that but the situation still has to be right and the culture around the team has to be right.

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I certainly am fine with the idea that the Os called up Manny in 2012 but had they not and waited until mid April in 2013, Manny would have a lot more time here (I believe this year would have been his last year) and perhaps he fetches way more in trade.  

Your math is off here.   If Manny had been brought up in mid-April 2013 he would have been a free agent last winter, instead of the winter before.    

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Your math is off here.   If Manny had been brought up in mid-April 2013 he would have been a free agent last winter, instead of the winter before.    

Yep..was doing it quickly.  Either way, you would have had him longer and he would have had a lot more value.  You have to consider these things.  You can’t just dismiss it and act like it’s nothing and I feel CoC does just that.

[Camden_yardbird]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Adley should 100% be up and not late in the season.

I'd love to be as enthusiastic about Diaz as you are but they chose for him to spend in excess of a full season in AA.  I think they hold him back past the Super 2 deadline which could impact the team's record.

 

I think you are deluding yourself on AR.  Barring massive injuries he gets less than 60 ABs next year at the MLB level.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think you are deluding yourself on AR.  Barring massive injuries he gets less than 60 ABs next year at the MLB level.

Naw, I've seen enough of Elias to assume he's going to hold him back.

I said he should be up.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think you are deluding yourself on AR.  Barring massive injuries he gets less than 60 ABs next year at the MLB level.

I don’t think this is true either.  I would peg him getting 150ish at bats, assuming he plays well and is healthy.

[Just Regular]

Is Rutschman's future career earning potential something the MLBPA should care about?  He isn't a member yet.

He might be the player with one of the biggest deltas depending on whatever CBA terms for 2022 and onward prevail.

Joey Bart (anecdotally, a poor man's Adley Rutschman, currently lagging him by #2 vs #11 on MLB.com's list) became the Giants catcher about Team Game #27 this year, was in the bottom quartile of catcher hitters by wOBA, but helped his team stay in contention until the last day.   Marginal PA's 129-450 would be really meaningful experience if we aren't punting 2022.

To some extent, Means, Santander, Mountcastle, Kremer (feeling bullish) and maybe even Mancini can tilt this.  Are they 4-win Guys, or 2-win guys? We'll see in the first quarter of the season.   No way is he joining a 7-19 crew, but 14-12...

I'll pick over.  You gotta market to the Lindor Cohort.  By August that first group and Group 2 of Adley, Yusniel, Baumann and even one of the HS arms could be on the field together.  The hope if they are all here June 1 is upper 70's; I think even with a delay until August, we'll be hungry enough in the 4th quarter to get past 68.

Late 2021 schedule tidbits - I expect us to be favored most of these series.

The Orioles will play 17 home games in September, their busiest month at Oriole Park.

a 10-game homestand from September 6-16 (Kansas City, Toronto, New York-AL)

The Orioles will complete the home portion of their regular season schedule with a seven-game homestand against the Texas Rangers (September 23-26) and Red Sox (September 28-30)

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..was doing it quickly.  Either way, you would have had him longer and he would have had a lot more value.  You have to consider these things.  You can’t just dismiss it and act like it’s nothing and I feel CoC does just that.

And the calculus changes depending on the competitive position of the team.  

Fundamentally, I think Can_of_corn’s position is grounded on his sense of what is fair to the player, plus his belief that it is better for players to be challenged even if they struggle at bit, rather than coast at a less challenging level.    He’s not disagreeing about what’s in the financial interest of the team, he just doesn’t like it from either a fairness or development standpoint.    I’m more on your side, for a couple of reasons.    First, I prefer a player demonstrate some mastery of a level before they are pushed to the next one, and I don’t think it hurts them to wait a bit.    And second, since my goal is the long term success of the team, the financial aspects are important to me.    I’d rather have a 7th year of control of a player, especially when that 7th year might come during a time when the team is contending, whereas any necessary delay in the player’s debut is coming at a time when the team won’t be a contender with or without him.   There’s only so far you can take that logic before fairness and development do come into play, but I certainly don’t feel the Orioles have crossed any lines to date.
 

[Sports Guy]

Again, all of this changes if the Os sign Adley to a long term deal immediately but yes, you have to play the service time game with him IF you aren’t contending.

Had the Os started Rutschman at Frederick, like I thought they should have, and he tore it up and then went to this Bowie camp and dominated, I would be in line with CoC here.  But Adley wasn’t that good in his first real time and while it’s nice to hear he stood out at Bowie, he was also facing the same pitchers over and over again.  So, to me, he needs some time in the minors to show that he belongs here.  Maybe all he needs is 50ish games.  If so, I’m ok with bringing him up because even if we aren’t contending, I do feel it’s foolish to leave a player in the minors once he has shown he has no business being there...but let him show us that first.

[DrungoHazewood]

(Sorry for the weird formatting)

30-some years ago Bill James published a list of six indicators that helped discuss which way a team was heading the next season:

Quote

1. Pythagorean Record. Teams that outperform their Pythagorean record (their predicted won-lost record based on runs scored and allowed) tend to improve the following year. This was once known in sabermetric circles as the “Johnson Effect” after Bryan Johnson, who James credited with discovering the phenomenon. Applying the Johnson Effect in 2006 would identify the Diamondbacks and White Sox as most likely to decline, and the Mets and Blue Jays as most likely to improve (I won’t bother with the rest of the examples for now).

2. The “Plexiglass Principle”. Simply put, teams that improve in one season tend to decline in the following year, and vice versa.

3. The “Law of Competitive Balance”. Baseball teams tend to return towards a .500 record. Teams with a winning record tend to decline, teams with a losing record tend to improve. In these less straightforward times, we usually call this “regression to the mean”.

4. Age. Young teams get better; old teams decline. Because baseball-reference.com lists team ages this way, I split this category into two (age of position players and age of pitchers) and gave half a point for each.

5. AAA performance. Teams with good Triple-A teams tend to improve; teams with bad Triple-A teams tend to decline.

6. Late-season performance. Teams who play better in the second half than the first half, will tend to improve the following season. (And, of course, vice-versa).

1. The Orioles under-performed Pythagoras, indicating that they may improve next year.

2. They improved in '20, and teams that improve tend to (overall) decline.

3. They were under .500, and losing teams tend to improve.

4. They are a young team, and young teams tend to improve.

5. They had no AAA team.  Strange situation, of course, but I think this is the weakest of the six indicators in normal circumstances.  It was kind of true in 1985, but more so today that teams don't really care about how good their AAA team is, it's just a taxi squad.

6. The Orioles faded down the stretch, indicating that they may decline.

So, three positives, two negatives, and a push.  So maybe a slightly better record?  

My counter-argument is that their 2020 record isn't terribly representative of their talent level.  They started off very hot, then faded pretty badly in a weird, short season.  I think over 162 games they would have ended up closer to 60 wins.  So my gut tells me that they'll have about the same winning percentage next year as this.  But... young teams sometimes surprise you.

 

[Just Regular]

If we're lucky enough to have it, the first couple weeks of Spring Training with all the minors guys in camp will be a blast.

It's probably going to take years for the pig in the python of all the 19-22 year olds not getting to really pitch in 2020 to sort itself out (unless you use your Sixtos and Braxton Garretts to make it to the playoffs and stuff), but I kind of imagine the Big 3 mid cases this year would have been.

Baumann - a few AA games to check he's still better than the level, then a long AAA run

Hall - a full AA season to refine, but then he goes through 2 levels in 2021.  I feel like a high school Guy really ought to blow through 2 levels some year.

Rodriguez - would have done that trick with his polish for a 10/10 Frederick/Bowie split.

Now roll a die in any of the three cases and if it is a 1 or a 2, do not pass go, etc, but each of those survivors entering 2021 is perhaps within 5-10 final minor league starts for MLB readiness.  Clubs have to wrestle with the fact those arms are aging even if they aren't getting to pitch.  I expect prospects even this good to be bad MLB pitchers at first and hope to see that siloed to '21 as much as isn't developmental malpractice.  2022 might matter.