Any chance that the O’s are in on Ha-Seong Kim

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

About 1.5% of people in the US have the last name Johnson.   About 2.4% of US males have the First name David.   So, figure .00036 chance that an American male is named David Johnson.    Sounds small, but with 165 mm American males, there are probably 59,000 David Johnsons roaming around the US today.   It’s certainly one of the most common names, but not that common.    The odds that two players in Orioles history would have that name are extremely small.    I don’t know how many players have played for the Orioles, but it’s probably under 2,000.

This makes me recall a probability question from some childhood Brain Teaser book that if there are 30 people in a room, what are the chances two have the same birthday?  You're supposed to think probably not, but about there it is something like high 90%'s likely, and it doesn't take many more for it to be astronomically unlikely some pair doesn't occur.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, weams said:

Not really I suppose. Maybe 800k to a million. Tops. Like I said Iglesias is the big signing and Trey doesn't get to stay if he wants 4. 

With the negative posts and all the positive rep going to guys busting on the cheapness I really can’t understand why you still are interested enough to post. 
 

I don’t buy for a second that the Orioles changed coaches with money being the principal reason. Sure .... if the like another pitch8ng coach that’s available that they think is better and just happens that will agree to coach for significantly less fine. I just don’t buy it and  don’t buy that Elias is being forced to penny pinch. 
 

Otherwise Elias was a fool to take this gig and the Angelos’ sons are just as big of meddlers as the old block.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's put it this way. If the team is really making coaching decisions based off money, they are not in on a Korean free agent.

Again ...I just don’t buy it.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

With the negative posts and all the positive rep going to guys busting on the cheapness I really can’t understand why you still are interested enough to post. 
 

I don’t buy for a second that the Orioles changed coaches with money being the principal reason. Sure .... if the like another pitch8ng coach that’s available that they think is better and just happens that will agree to coach for significantly less fine. I just don’t buy it and  don’t buy that Elias is being forced to penny pinch. 
 

Otherwise Elias was a fool to take this gig and the Angelos’ sons are just as big of meddlers as the old block.

I wouldn't say he was a fool even if our suspicious are correct.

These jobs aren't easy to come by and it's very possible what went down in Huston might have kept him from ever getting this level position if he had remained there.  Heck even without the cheating scandal candidates go from the next big thing to courtesy interview in this business.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't say he was a fool even if our suspicious are correct.

These jobs aren't easy to come by and it's very possible what went down in Huston might have kept him from ever getting this level position if he had remained there.  Heck even without the cheating scandal candidates go from the next big thing to courtesy interview in this business.

if he knew the stuff in Houston was going to happen then I’d agree with you to some extent. But I doubt that’s the case. John Angelos said he was in charge of the baseball operations. If that came with the caveat that the budget was next to nothing John Angelos has 0 credibility in my opinion. And that makes me back to wishing for an ownership change.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

if he knew the stuff in Houston was going to happen then I’d agree with you to some extent. But I doubt that’s the case. John Angelos said he was in charge of the baseball operations. If that came with the caveat that the budget was next to nothing John Angelos has 0 credibility in my opinion. And that makes me back to wishing for an ownership change.

She isn't the best example because she's got a good job at the moment but Kim Ng would be an example of someone that went from the next hot GM candidate to courtesy interview.  It happens in this business, there are not a lot of chances for folks to get this type of position.  Wasn't the O's job the last one filled that season?

This was his for sure one chance to get a chance at this job. 

I've never agreed with the folks that thought he had a lot of leverage with the owners when he was hired.

[LA2]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

About 1.5% of people in the US have the last name Johnson.   About 2.4% of US males have the First name David.   So, figure .00036 chance that an American male is named David Johnson.    Sounds small, but with 165 mm American males, there are probably 59,000 David Johnsons roaming around the US today.   It’s certainly one of the most common names, but not that common.    The odds that two players in Orioles history would have that name are extremely small.    I don’t know how many players have played for the Orioles, but it’s probably under 2,000.

In 1965 and '66, the Orioles had Bob Johnson and Davey Johnson and my ten-year-old mind wondered if they were related--there was even a slight facial resemblance and they were both non-slugging infielders. Then they had two Robinsons. It wasn't until a few years later that there was either a Johnson (aside from LBJ) or Robinson (aside from "Lost in Space" and that Swiss family in a tree house) in my daily non-baseball-fan life, possibly because i went to a very small school (there were maybe 53 students in my graduating class and a lot of them were Jewish). I have often thought that, more than even literature or the newspapers, it was baseball that introduced me to a vast number of common American names. I knew no Smiths, Wilsons, Whites, Browns, etc. except through baseball.

[wildcard]

I would not be surprised if Elias is in on the bidding for Kim.   5/20 plus a 4m fee is not out of the O's reach especially  if they back load the contract.   One million in salary for 2021 is possible.  The 4m in fee is less than they paid for Kjerstad.

This acquisition would not be about 2021 but rather getting a young SS that is a two way player for 2022-25.  Elias is all about acquiring talent for the future and Kim appears to fit.   Kang is the closest  comp to Kim and he got a 4/11 contract with a 5M fee. He did make the jump well from the KBO to the majors but had a knee injury in his 2nd year and then had alcohol problems which led to visa problems.   But talent for talent they are similar overall and makes it seem like Kim can make the jump to the majors.

There will be a lot of competition for Kim and that could lead to the contract going higher.  There is a limit to how far the O's will go I am sure.  But I see Elias and his analytic staff doing all the background work to see if Kim is a fit for the O's.

Acquiring Kim could lead to the O's trading Iglesias either over the winter or at the trade deadline.  Maybe for a young 3B.

[weams]

I’d be surprised if the Orioles spend any more than 850,000 on any player for the 2021 season 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I’d be surprised if the Orioles spend any more than 850,000 on any player for the 2021 season 

Other than Davis and Cobb.

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, weams said:

I’d be surprised if the Orioles spend any more than 850,000 on any player for the 2021 season 

The O's are going to spend on Mancini, and Santander.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty much no choice there. However, someone might be interested in Cobb if the Orioles pick up 80% or 90% of the contract.  They'd still be saving a little.  I wouldn't rule that scenario out.  

Maybe 60% if they bundle the CBP.

[jerios55]

3 hours ago, weams said:

I’d be surprised if the Orioles spend any more than 850,000 on any player for the 2021 season 

So you think they buy out iglesias?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So you think they buy out iglesias?

I think he's more of a candidate to be traded.  (I think they keep him).

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Again ...I just don’t buy it.

Like I've said before, I don't buy that was really the reason the two coaches were let go either, but we will know for sure after we see how Elias handles his arbitration eligible players.