Nunez DFA

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias is lying.  It is roster flexibility.   And money.   As it should be.   With Mancini/Mountcastle projected as DH/1B  how much would Nunez play?   He becomes a backup DH on a team that is carrying Davis because of a contract that Elias had nothing to do with.      That leaves Hyde with a two man defensive bench if there is a 26 man roster.   That should not happen.   

Paying a guy that makes your team worse as opposed to understanding sunk cost is stupid management.

[VaBird1]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

I think Mullins not making the OD 26 man roster is very, very unlikely.  Hyde loved what he did in center last year.  Mullins was 305/348/448/796 vs right handed pitching last season.  That is a good leadoff hitter vs righties.

I liked what he did in center as well, but would like a lead off hitter that gets on base batter than he has.  Even his SSS splits vs. RHP from last year aren't impressive.  That said when he is playing well, I really enjoy watching him.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias can worry about leaving go Yastrzemski or what Nunez may become.  He has to build the best   Orioles team he can by keeping and getting playing time for his players of the future.

I don’t disagree with the philosophy.   But there may be regrets along the way.    I don’t really regret Yaz because literally nobody saw him turning into the player he’s been with the Giants.   You were the guy pushing for him in the 2018-19 offseason and even you were thinking of him as a possible 4th/5th OF kind of in the Joey Rickard mold, not a guy who’d finish 8th in the NL MVP voting.  

Nunez however is a guy who it doesn’t take a ton of imagination to see as a possible .830-.870 guy.   I wouldn’t bet on that outcome, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.   Yaz absolutely shocked me.
 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Paying a guy that makes your team worse as opposed to understanding sunk cost is stupid management.

I understand that last winter we thought that Davis’ 2020 salary of $23 mm was a sunk cost, but it turned out that $14.5 mm of that wasn’t sunk at all, since the season got shortened and we didn’t have to pay him, whereas we would have had to pay him the whole $23 mm if we’d released him over the winter.    The possibility that they won’t play a full season in 2021 is a game-changer when it comes to decisions about Davis.  Think of it this way: every 7 games they don’t play saves $1 mm off Davis’ salary, compared to releasing him and paying the whole thing.  I hope they play all 162 next year, but I’d say the odds of that are 50/50 at best.    Those odds will have changed one way or another by March and I fully expect the O’s to wait until then to make any decisions. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I understand that last winter we thought that Davis’ 2020 salary of $23 mm was a sunk cost, but it turned out that $14.5 mm of that wasn’t sunk at all, since the season got shortened and we didn’t have to pay him, whereas we would have had to pay him the whole $23 mm if we’d released him over the winter.    The possibility that they won’t play a full season in 2021 is a game-changer when it comes to decisions about Davis.  Think of it this way: every 7 games they don’t play saves $1 mm off Davis’ salary, compared to releasing him and paying the whole thing.  I hope they play all 162 next year, but I’d say the odds of that are 50/50 at best.    Those odds will have changed one way or another by March and I fully expect the O’s to wait until then to make any decisions. 

Good point

[Philip]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

The unknowns of how many players will be on the roster and whether Elias can sign Alberto and Sanchez to what he considers reasonable contracts changes the roster and its depth.   If there is a 26 man roster I see Stewart and Diaz beginning the seasoning Norfolk.

I think Mullins is a platoon CF playing vs right-handed pitching.  Hays moving from LF to CF vs left-handed pitching.   Santander in right.  Mountcastle in LF vs left-handers.   

Mountcastle at 1B vs right-handers,  Mancini at 1B vs lefties.   Mancini  at DH vs right-hander to put less stress on him.   The opening at DH is for a right-handed hitter that hits lefties.  That may be Urias but that is up in the air.

When Diaz arrives he changes that.  As will injuries and non performance.

Until we know if Alberto and Sanchez are kept I don't think we know the infield configuration.  However, after looking at Sanchez highlights at 2B its hard not to see him playing there and teaming with Iglesias in the middle of the infield.  Its a huge upgrade and with the hitters on this team I think the O's have the bats to carry a weak hitting Sanchez.   Alberto vs lefties and Valaika vs righties platooning at 3B with Ruiz optioned to AAA.  

I think Sanchez has the ability to backup Iglesias at SS and Valaika, Alberto and Urias all have the abilities to backup 2B.

The bench would be  Sisco/Severino, Alberto/Valaika, Urias/Mullins, and Davis.

That would be 13 position players and 13 pitchers.

Brandon? Is that you?

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

ld be owed.  

Elias is hiding behind the idea that this is an issue of roster flexibility. He’s lying.  This is money and nothing else.  

I continue to insist that the organization would not make stupid moves over such an insignificant amount of money. It is not hyperbole so say that the savings are negligible, and if Nunez had value, he would have been retained. The team gave Iglesias ~3.5 million because-wait for it-he has value, being the best SS in the system and being essentially irreplaceable at the moment. Again, same song second verse, Nunez offers nothing we don’t already have, and his roster spot is best use for someone more versatile.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I agree with this - flexibility and money are both factors.    Let’s say we give Nunez’s at bats to Mancini - are we going to get less production that way?    I don’t think so.   On the other hand, if Mancini and Nunez both play, whose at bats are being taken away?    Are we sacrificing outfield defense to make that happen?    I think a good case can be made for dropping Nunez on that basis.    SG is right that the situation could change based on health, but with Diaz likely to be ready at some point, we have some insurance there.   

My biggest reservation about dropping Nunez is whether he has another level of improvement left in him.    I’d kick myself if he went from being a .780-.820 guy to an .830-.870 guy.    And I do think that’s a possibility.   He’s only 27 next season and has about 1100 major league PA — that’s a spot where a lot of players hit their stride.   It will be interesting to watch how he does with whichever team picks him up.   
 

Have you done any comp studies to find out who best compares to Nunez? He can’t run, he can’t defend, he hits for power, he doesn’t walk much and has almost a 30% K rate. I was thinking Pedro Alvarez, but Alvarez had a much better eye, and even if they were twins, I wouldn’t want Alvarez any more than I want Nunez.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias is lying.  It is roster flexibility.   And money.   As it should be.   With Mancini/Mountcastle projected as DH/1B  how much would Nunez play?   He becomes a backup DH on a team that is carrying Davis because of a contract that Elias had nothing to do with.      That leaves Hyde with a two man defensive bench if there is a 26 man roster.   That should not happen.   

Again, I agree that roster flexibility is an issue.  I have been saying that for months.

But it’s a line he is giving to people to make it seem like the organization is making a decision that isn’t based on finances.  That’s bs.  If Nunez was set to make 900K this year, they would have kept him, roster flexibility be damned.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

I continue to insist that the organization would not make stupid moves over such an insignificant amount of money. It is not hyperbole so say that the savings are negligible, and if Nunez had value, he would have been retained. The team gave Iglesias ~3.5 million because-wait for it-he has value, being the best SS in the system and being essentially irreplaceable at the moment. Again, same song second verse, Nunez offers nothing we don’t already have, and his roster spot is best use for someone more versatile.

He absolutely Offers something we don’t have.  That’s just a ridiculous statement.

This team doesn’t have offense everywhere.  They don’t have guys who have proven to be healthy, put up an 800+ OPs and 30+ homers.  Nunez has given us enough indication over the last few years that he is good for that.    
 

The injuries and the incredibly awful play of Davis(and hopeful cutting of him as well) make Nunez a worthy insurance policy.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I hope the at bats aren’t there for Nunez even if he is a productive player.  If the at bats aren’t there for him, that means guys are healthy and producing who are more overall valuable pieces.  But we are far from that being a certainty and it’s wrong to argue otherwise.

[Just Regular]

Frankly I'm a little psyched for Yusniel here too.  There's the currency of playing time alongside $$$.

I feel Yusniel's shot at growing into part of the Next Good Team is far greater (leaving open the possibility Renato and the Orioles agree on a price outside the arb process).   The more 2021 PA, the greater for his start of 2022 effectiveness.

Each PA given to even more respectable placeholders (as Renato most likely is) incurs an opportunity cost at building the skillsets for aspirationally relevant 2022 Orioles.

This CBA is a lame duck, and I'll be pulling for the FO to just not even worry about the dissembling.  Let's ventilate the pros and cons of the prevailing system to inform both parties more robustly about what they should really negotiate for.   Yusniel can leadoff and Adley bat 2nd in Team Game #8.

Adley 2.6.1998 and 2020 Team Game #8 = 7 club-controlled seasons being 22/23/24/25/26/27/28

Yusniel 10.7.1996 and 2020 Team Game #8 = 7 club-controlled season being 24/25/26/27/28/29/30 (iffy Arb4 tender for Age-30 Yusniel).

We open in Boston.  I don't know if Home Opener would be before/after gaining Year 7, but wishing here for Orange Carpet lineup like

LF Yusniel, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, DH Mancini, CF Hays, <miscellaneous infielders>

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Adley 2.6.1998 and 2020 Team Game #8 = 7 club-controlled seasons being 22/23/24/25/26/27/28

Yusniel 10.7.1996 and 2020 Team Game #8 = 7 club-controlled season being 24/25/26/27/28/29/30 (iffy Arb4 tender for Age-30 Yusniel).

+1 all those ages as next year is, ummm, 2021.  #IAmGenius

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias makes a good point IF people are healthy and producing.

Otherwise, Elias is making an assumption.

We are assuming Mancini will be fine.  He may be fine now and he may be working out but working out and playing are 2 different things and that assumes the cancer doesn’t come back. We are assuming Santander, Hays and Diaz will be healthy and producing.  Neither of them have proven they can do that.

Davis is nothing, we all know that.

I don’t really see any red flags about Mountcastle, so I’m good making assumptions about him.

Otherwise, I don’t see a good reason to cut bait on a 800ish OPS, 30 homer bat making a few million dollars.  It’s not logical right now.  
 

Like I said, you can give him arbitration contract and if things look great in ST, you cut him and pay him out the 20% he would be owed.  

Elias is hiding behind the idea that this is an issue of roster flexibility. He’s lying.  This is money and nothing else.  The roster flexibility stuff may be true to an extent but that can easily be worked around.  They just didn’t want to pay him, which is really dumb.

BTW, this is also why making trades is important.  We may see some kind of a roster issue with some of these young pitchers in the near future.  Yes, that’s also making a lot of assumptions but you don’t want to lose cheap, productive players for nothing.  

Elias is making decisions with a lot more information than you and I have on these matters. These are educated assumptions on his part, like how you expect Nunez to continue to be an .800-ish OPS, which is really below average for someone who has no defensive value. You are assuming the league has not, or will not have, figured him out. 

The way I see it, Nunez would have gotten about 500-600 plate appearances last season absent COVID. Elias, and many others here, believe that the team is better served with the outcome of those at bats split among other young players who have more value for the money they earn and will be a part of the next competitive team the Orioles field. Why waste those opportunities on a guy that will not be here at that time? Why coach a guy who has not shown any interest in playing defense since Bobby Dickerson left?

It IS about roster flexibility. We can have an extra infielder, or an outfielder. Like you said, several players need to show they can stay healthy. Santander, Hays, Iglesias just to name a few. Having guys who can spell them to nurse a nagging injury before it becomes something more major would be nice, no? 

I find Mike Elias to be quite honest about the things he can be for a GM. The most dishonest things he has said is mostly the nice comments he makes about players he trades or releases. I mean he could point out how badly flawed they are, or how poor their work ethic is, or how they are not coachable, or how we simply have better players now that will make our team better. 

To say Elias is lying, and then point out that he telling the truth “to a point”...I’m speechless. He simply does not think Nunez is worth the money he would receive in arbitration. Just like the Rays did with Renfroe. Its business, of course it’s about money. That is why you need someone to make educated assumptions and spend what little resources you have wisely. 

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, Philip said:

As a teacher, you have a probably have a sense of what can and can’t get better in a player. To to my eyes his defense is just bad and won’t improve, And even if he hits his best, it wouldn’t really compensate for his defense, because even his best bat isn't that great.

And he’s not part of the future anyway, so put Sanchez either at third or second, give Bannon a long look at whichever position he plays best, and scour the waiver wires for somebody who might be better.

We can disagree a little on this. He did have 32 RBI’s to lead the team last year, tied with Santander. 32 RBI’s in two months is pretty solid production. And the throwing errors are not characteristic of him. Usually a strong accurate arm. I think he was dinged up, maybe a shoulder or a minor oblique. Either way, he is on thin ice. All depends where his head is when he comes to Spring. 

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Elias is making decisions with a lot more information than you and I have on these matters. These are educated assumptions on his part, like how you expect Nunez to continue to be an .800-ish OPS, which is really below average for someone who has no defensive value. You are assuming the league has not, or will not have, figured him out. 

The way I see it, Nunez would have gotten about 500-600 plate appearances last season absent COVID. Elias, and many others here, believe that the team is better served with the outcome of those at bats split among other young players who have more value for the money they earn and will be a part of the next competitive team the Orioles field. Why waste those opportunities on a guy that will not be here at that time? Why coach a guy who has not shown any interest in playing defense since Bobby Dickerson left?

It IS about roster flexibility. We can have an extra infielder, or an outfielder. Like you said, several players need to show they can stay healthy. Santander, Hays, Iglesias just to name a few. Having guys who can spell them to nurse a nagging injury before it becomes something more major would be nice, no? 

I find Mike Elias to be quite honest about the things he can be for a GM. The most dishonest things he has said is mostly the nice comments he makes about players he trades or releases. I mean he could point out how badly flawed they are, or how poor their work ethic is, or how they are not coachable, or how we simply have better players now that will make our team better. 

To say Elias is lying, and then point out that he telling the truth “to a point”...I’m speechless. He simply does not think Nunez is worth the money he would receive in arbitration. Just like the Rays did with Renfroe. Its business, of course it’s about money. That is why you need someone to make educated assumptions and spend what little resources you have wisely. 

What info does he have that we don’t?  Does he know that Mancini will never get cancer again?  Does he know for sure guys who have been oft injured in their career are all of a sudden going to be healthy?  How would he know those things?

And yes it’s about money..a very small amount of money.  It’s a poor decision.