#9 Prospect - Zach Britton

[LookinUp]

I think that's the key to the Britton pick here...he's just scratching the potential, and that's not just coming from the OH staff. This summer one member of the O's front office sounded off to me unprovoked on Britton. The sinking heater and the ever-improving slider coupled with his growing pitching IQ has quietly moved him up our list.

Several of the staff's preliminary lists had Britton right around the Top 10, but I think as our discussions evolved the consensus was that he deserved the #9 slot.

This post and Tony's last post tell a different story than (I think) many of us were expecting. What you're saying is Britton earned #9 in your eyes, not necessarily that Erbe lost it (although I'm sure that will be part of it). It's good to hear this perspective, particularly Tony's projection that he could at least become a very solid lefty out of the pen.

[Stotle]

A lot of what you are saying is right on, I don't really disagree, but it comes down to the fact if things break right for him he's got the delivery, the ability to get groundball outs on a moving-sinking fastball, and a slider that has improved a lot since he was drafted.

I'm pretty leery of South Atlantic League stats myself because it's littered with guys who did well there but never made it, but I just think Britton is that best bet to have a solid major league career at this point on the list.

I think some people (not you) are going overboard a bit with their love/passion for certain players because really, the chances are is that most of these players will not reach their ceilings and most are not going to have long major league careers. The good news is that we can pretty deep on this list with guys who have real major league skills, but like most minor league players, they have their warts as well. It's not popular to point out those warts to the fans, and that's part of the reason I think I'm taking a lot of heat despite the fact that I believe I've clearly shown my line of thinking.

Everyone is certainly allowed an opinion and it's fun to have the discussions, but for me, Britton is a solid pick at this position.

Britton has a lot of hoops to jump through, but for me, he's got the best chance to be a starter in the major leagues of the guys left and that's why he's sitting here at #9.

Maybe people should look at this as a draft. Sometimes you go with the solid pick who might not reach his ceiling, but is a good bet to become something in the major leagues. I kind of look at Britton like that. If he continues to develop, he's got a nice chance to be a starter in the major leagues, but at worse with his ability to get groundballs and dominate lefties, we're looking at solid major league left-handed reliever.

Thanks very much for this post. It lays out your thinking, and I respect your take on the matter. As to what you say, I really agree with it all. It's not uncommon for there to be difference in player valuation at the scouting level -- I think that's all we have here.

To be clear, I understand and respect your line of thinking, I just happen to disagree with the value I associate with the particular skill set I see with Britton (as opposed to someone like Erbe or even Bundy). I see where you're coming from, though, and there's a decent chance that I'll be in your boat next year (and congratulating you on a good early read on a player). Thanks again for giving some insight in to the ranking.

[Tony-OH]

Thanks very much for this post. It lays out your thinking, and I respect your take on the matter. As to what you say, I really agree with it all. It's not uncommon for there to be difference in player valuation at the scouting level -- I think that's all we have here.

To be clear, I understand and respect your line of thinking, I just happen to disagree with the value I associate with the particular skill set I see with Britton (as opposed to someone like Erbe or even Bundy). I see where you're coming from, though, and there's a decent chance that I'll be in your boat next year (and congratulating you on a good early read on a player). Thanks again for giving some insight in to the ranking.

The problem with Bundy is I've never seen him and we have no professional stats really to go off of. If Bundy is the guy that Jordan speaks of, he very well could be in the top ten next year, but I just don't have enough data to go off of to put him in the top ten yet. As for Erbe, clearly I do not see him as a starter.

[Stotle]

The problem with Bundy is I've never seen him and we have no professional stats really to go off of. If Bundy is the guy that Jordan speaks of, he very well could be in the top ten next year, but I just don't have enough data to go off of to put him in the top ten yet. As for Erbe, clearly I do not see him as a starter.

Yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. You've explained yourself well. Bundy presents a challenge particularly because the Will Rogers League is not very strong -- so his HS numbers don't give us any insight whatsoever.

Regarding Erbe, I won't ask you to respond to this because I have no doubt 1) you're tired of getting hammered on this , and 2) you'll have more to say when Erbe shows up on the list. But the question I have would be whether Erbe as an assured reliever (meaning no chance to start) would be rated higher than Britton as an assured reliever? That's where I'm personally trying to make the distinction, because without the wipeout slider, I'm don't think I take Britton the reliever (though I love that he's lefty!) over Erbe the reliever.

Eh, I think I'm splitting hairs. Thanks for the back and forth -- looking forward to more Britton talk and seeing what's up with Erbe. For what it's worth, I have his current projection as a late-inning reliever as well (I just think he'll be really, really good at it ).

[Frobby]

As for Erbe, clearly I do not see him as a starter.

I really wonder whether your opinion has been influenced too much because you happened to catch him on a bad day. I mean, this guy had some extremely dominant starts:

4/11 6.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run

4/22 7.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 run

4/27 6.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 run

6/11 7.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs

6/17 7.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs

6/28 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs

7/13 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run

8/05 6.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs

8/26 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs

I have a hard time ruling him out as a starter when he was completely dominant in 1/3 of his starts.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'll be interested in seeing the Erbe write up, and probably more interested in the posts that follow the write up. It should spawn some great conversation.

[Mitch Connor]

I really wonder whether your opinion has been influenced too much because you happened to catch him on a bad day. I mean, this guy had some extremely dominant starts:

4/11 6.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run

4/22 7.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 run

4/27 6.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 run

6/11 7.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs

6/17 7.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs

6/28 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs

7/13 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run

8/05 6.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs

8/26 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs

I have a hard time ruling him out as a starter when he was completely dominant in 1/3 of his starts.

I attended many of Erbe's game this past year and think several of his rough outings, were due to poor defense. He has the ability to be a 1-3 starter in the rotation. The only knock I have on him is the HRs allowed. Has this been a problem, in the past or just this year?

[Lucky Jim]

If he's living at 90-92 w/o movement, I can - honestly - see why Tony's view of his upside and value have declined.

I just haven't seen word of this elsewhere (that of a permanent and/or consistent decline in velocity) and word about that kind of thing usually makes its way around the internet very quickly.

I know Tony is heavily influenced by his firsthand accounts. As he should be. So I'm not going to discount those, either. Like Frobby (or sort-of like Frobby) I want to believe that Tony's take is based on catching him on bad days.

I noted those same starts before, when I was trying to figure out the drop in ranking. I wonder what we'd think of him - pitching at High A, at 20, with his peripherals if he hadn't been a guy who once threw 94-96 w/ apparent ease.

That said, Tony - please don't take anything I've said as "hammering" or "bashing" or even "doubting" your take on things. I know they're well-informed. Think of this as folks like me (and maybe Frobby and maybe others) refusing to relinquish that last bit of optimism about Erbe's upside.

[Tony-OH]

If he's living at 90-92 w/o movement, I can - honestly - see why Tony's view of his upside and value have declined.

I just haven't seen word of this elsewhere (that of a permanent and/or consistent decline in velocity) and word about that kind of thing usually makes its way around the internet very quickly.

I know Tony is heavily influenced by his firsthand accounts. As he should be. So I'm not going to discount those, either. Like Frobby (or sort-of like Frobby) I want to believe that Tony's take is based on catching him on bad days.

I noted those same starts before, when I was trying to figure out the drop in ranking. I wonder what we'd think of him - pitching at High A, at 20, with his peripherals if he hadn't been a guy who once threw 94-96 w/ apparent ease.

That said, Tony - please don't take anything I've said as "hammering" or "bashing" or even "doubting" your take on things. I know they're well-informed. Think of this as folks like me (and maybe Frobby and maybe others) refusing to relinquish that last bit of optimism about Erbe's upside.

No worries. I'm confident in what I saw and what I heard when I talked with enough sources that my write up with be as accurate as possible.

I don't ever go only on one or two times I saw a guy, but it does weigh heavily on the final analysis. Afterall, like I've been told 1000 times by scouts, in the end, you go off what you saw and your gut feeling.

I'm certain my assessment will be in the minority and some scouts may not agree, that fine. In the end, time will tell, but I'd be pretty lame if I didn't go with my own assessment in the end.

I do take issue with some that are suggesting that I am not taking everything into consideration though. I thought people knew me a little better than that but hey, that's life. I got one long time poster telling everyone that the site is now lacking some type of scouting reports since John Domen left despite the fact that you can probably count on one hand the number of games he's attended in the last two years and another suggesting I'm biased because I saw a pitcher have a bad day (he actually threw five shutout innings one of the times I saw him).

In the end, I give my opinion and write ups and everyone certainly has a right to agree or disagree. Really, the rankings are just fun, they don't mean a ton. I mean seriously, I could build a case to rearrange guys from 5-13 if I had too, but they have to go in an order.

Some people get all bent out of shape and start taking shots at me for what, putting in a ton of time and research and coming up with a ranking that they may not agree with?

Stotle has made some great posts and I really like the give and take with him and of course lots of others have made some super posts as well. I'm trying to ignore the guys who take the shots because that comes with this business, but it does get annoying when some apparently think I'm just winging it or make smart ass comments like I'm some idiot because I haven't put their prospect on the board yet.

I've done my best to answer their problems with my analysis but I'll probably just focus on the good posts and ignore the other ones.

[Lucky Jim]

No worries. I'm confident in what I saw and what I heard when I talked with enough sources that my write up with be as accurate as possible.

I don't ever go only on one or two times I saw a guy, but it does weigh heavily on the final analysis. Afterall, like I've been told 1000 times by scouts, in the end, you go off what you saw and your gut feeling.

I'm certain my assessment will be in the minority and some scouts may not agree, that fine. In the end, time will tell, but I'd be pretty lame if I didn't go with my own assessment in the end.

I do take issue with some that are suggesting that I am not taking everything into consideration though. I thought people knew me a little better than that but hey, that's life. I got one long time poster telling everyone that the site is now lacking some type of scouting reports since John Domen left despite the fact that you can probably count on one hand the number of games he's attended in the last two years and another suggesting I'm biased because I saw a pitcher have a bad day (he actually threw five shutout innings one of the times I saw him).

In the end, I give my opinion and write ups and everyone certainly has a right to agree or disagree. Really, the rankings are just fun, they don't mean a ton. I mean seriously, I could build a case to rearrange guys from 5-13 if I had too, but they have to go in an order.

Some people get all bent out of shape and start taking shots at me for what, putting in a ton of time and research and coming up with a ranking that they may not agree with?

Stotle has made some great posts and I really like the give and take with him and of course lots of others have made some super posts as well. I'm trying to ignore the guys who take the shots because that comes with this business, but it does get annoying when some apparently think I'm just winging it or make smart ass comments like I'm some idiot because I haven't put their prospect on the board yet.

I've done my best to answer their problems with my analysis but I'll probably just focus on the good posts and ignore the other ones.

We all have our horses. Honestly, before this year, I'd say that Spoone and Britton were MY horses. So I should be happy that the guys who I liked (based on peripherals, mostly) have risen in the OH firmament.

I don't think anyone's really doubting you, though. Just think of us like we're one of those guys when you play pick-up basketball who always starts guarding you at the top of the key and slaps your wrists constantly. Annoying, and you can't call a foul every time. But if you've got the chops to take him to the hole every time, it's insignificant in the end.

Gotta love the passion about O's prospects, though. Man, how far we've come when we know these guys so well.

[Greg Pappas]

To reiterate what Tony said... it's far more important to enjoy the write-ups and the information within than to be too concerned with the rankings. In the big picture, it's not that important.

What is important is the depth of quality prospects that grace this organization. It's been a long time coming, and we have a truly legitimate hope for the future of our beloved franchise.

[Lucky Jim]

To reiterate what Tony said... it's far more important to enjoy the write-ups and the information within than to be too concerned with the rankings. In the big picture, it's not that important.

What is important is the depth of quality prospects that grace this organization. It's been a long time coming, and we have a truly legitimate hope for the future of our beloved franchise.

Yeah yeah yeah, Greg. Your glass may be half-full. But mine's three-quarters empty.

[LookinUp]

To reiterate what Tony said... it's far more important to enjoy the write-ups and the information within than to be too concerned with the rankings. In the big picture, it's not that important.

What is important is the depth of quality prospects that grace this organization. It's been a long time coming, and we have a truly legitimate hope for the future of our beloved franchise.

Yeah, my top 15 will be different than Tony's, but it's nothing short of amazing that anyone doing rankings on the Orioles MiL system could say they can make a case to rearrange 5-13 in just about any order. It's equally amazing that three guys who dominated AA (Berken, Bergesen and Hernandez) won't likely make our top 10.

Not to interject myself into other issues, but I know a long time poster can ruffle some feathers around here, but I genuinely don't think he meant to this time. That's my first and last comment on the matter.

[Frobby]

I'm feeling a bit bad that this thread has gotten a bit off the main topic, which is Zach Britton. I'm very impressed by what Britton accomplished this year. While his K rate is not outstanding, it's not bad for a guy with such an outstanding GB rate. It also seems to me that he was extraordinarily consistent. His BAA was below .225 in every month after April, and his monthly ERA was over 3.20 only in August. He allowed more than 2 ER in a game only 7 times all year, and those consisted of 6 ER once, 5 ER once, 4 ER twice and 3 ER three times.

One interesting thing about Britton is the disparity between total runs (68) and earned runs allowed (51). He's an extreme ground ball pitcher, and Delmarva's defense was pretty shaky, especially with Ryan Adams manning 2B. You have to think that there were also a lot of "hits" that came on balls that a major league infielder would have handled. So he really could get better as he moves up the chain and the defense behind him gets better.

On the other hand, Britton benefitted from pitching at Delmarva's pitcher-friendly park (2.54 ERA at home). He wasn't as effective on the road (3.70 ERA). Frederick is a more hitter-friendly park so Britton's ERA might go up even if he's pitching effectively.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm feeling a bit bad that this thread has gotten a bit off the main topic, which is Zach Britton. I'm very impressed by what Britton accomplished this year. While his K rate is not outstanding, it's not bad for a guy with such an outstanding GB rate. It also seems to me that he was extraordinarily consistent. His BAA was below .225 in every month after April, and his monthly ERA was over 3.20 only in August. He allowed more than 2 ER in a game only 7 times all year, and those consisted of 6 ER once, 5 ER once, 4 ER twice and 3 ER three times.

One interesting thing about Britton is the disparity between total runs (68) and earned runs allowed (51). He's an extreme ground ball pitcher, and Delmarva's defense was pretty shaky, especially with Ryan Adams manning 2B. You have to think that there were also a lot of "hits" that came on balls that a major league infielder would have handled. So he really could get better as he moves up the chain and the defense behind him gets better.

On the other hand, Britton benefitted from pitching at Delmarva's pitcher-friendly park (2.54 ERA at home). He wasn't as effective on the road (3.70 ERA). Frederick is a more hitter-friendly park so Britton's ERA might go up even if he's pitching effectively.

Many pitchers pitch better at home because of the familiarity of the mound and surroundings, but I agree with you that even with that factored in, he was notably better at home. Good post.