#9 Prospect - Zach Britton

[Tony-OH]

Despite flying under the radar as a top prospect in some circles, 20-year old Zach Britton comes in at number nine here at OH. This young left-hander uses a sinking fastball to get groundball out after groundball out and may be just scratching his potential.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=1803

[ChaosLex]

Hmm... don't know much about Britton. :scratchchinhmm:

[Sports Guy]

Had to be either him or Erbe...I would have had Erbe first but I think it is splitting hairs and can see why Britton would be ahead of Erbe.

Personally, i had both of them a little higher(had Britton eighth) but I also wasn't as high on Snyder.

[mikezpen]

Question: From the stats, it looks like Zach Duke hasn't hit his ceiling, either. He's lifetime 26-39 with a 4.39 ERA, allows 11 hits per 9 innings and fans 4.6. I hope Britton's ceiling is a lot higher than that.

[bigelow]

I would have to disagree with this one only on the point that i believe erbe's ceiling is higher than britton. I went to the same juco as chorey spoone. Him and erbe came in to our winter workouts my freshman year and i was impressed by both. Erbe fastball was rediculous and his slider started behind you. Spoone came in my freshman and sophmore years. He impressed me with a great low fastball and he can throw 3 pitches for strikes(fastball,curveball,change up). Spoone curveball nasty. I just believe erbe throws really hard effortless and if you asked me that day outta the two i hit off, who had a better chance to reach the bigs i would say erbe. I vote for erbe's ceiling

[Stotle]

This is the first pick that a sort of strongly disagree with. I think Britton could eventually be a mid-rotation guy, primarily because his slider can be a plus- to fringe-plus-plus pitch (for me). However, I didn't see the consistency from it this season I'd look for to say, "Nice! He's figured this pitch out!" With a true plus-slider, Britton could be a very good groundball pitcher -- maybe without having to improve his changeup/curveball as an offspeed pitch.

I just don't see the full package here yet. He looks to me like he's more likely to end up in the pen, though there is tons of time for him to improve what he needs to in order to stay a starter. I think HiA/AA will be a good measuring stick. It's unlikely he keeps up the same productivity without improving his slider and an offspeed (either CB/CH). Next year would be the year I'd expect him to jump up the prospect rankings, provided he continues to make strides.

I think a bump this year is a little premature, though I commend the OH Staff for sticking to their guns and going with Britton if they think he is the 9th best prospect in the system. As I've noted many times before, I tend to be very conservative (often times overly-so) when it comes to looking for and acknowledging improvements in areas of need for prospects. I'd like to see Britton effective above LoA before giving him the nod, because I don't think he misses enough bats for his stuff to play as a potential front-end guy. As with Bergesen this year (and I'm not really compairing their stuff, just the fact that they're both groundball pitchers) Britton will live on keeping the ball down, changing speeds and getting good boring action on his fastball. Adding a slider makes him a good ML relief pitcher and fine-tuning FB/SL and CB/CH puts him in the rotation discussion, for me.

Interesting pick -- wondering what this thread is going to hold today.

[Frobby]

Thought it would be fun to throw out some Delmarva numbers:

Britton, age 20 ----- 147.1 IP, 118 H, 68 R, 51 ER, 9 HR, 49 BB, 114 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .219 BAA

Bergesen, age 21----- 94.1 IP, 75 H, 30 R, 23 ER, 3 HR, 17 BB, 73 K, 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .214 BAA

Hernandez, age 21-- 145.0 IP, 134 H, 83 R, 67 ER, 13 HR, 71 BB, 154 K, 4.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .240 BAA

Erbe, age 18 ------- 115.0 IP, 88 H, 47 R, 41 ER, 2 HR, 47 BB, 133 K, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .214 BAA

Factoring in age, I'd rank these (1) Erbe, (2) Bergesen, (3) Britton, (4) Hernandez.

Now throw in Britton's 2008 performance vs. the 2008 performance of Erbe, Bergesen and Hernandez this year:

Britton, age 20 ----- 147.1 IP, 118 H, 68 R, 51 ER, 9 HR, 49 BB, 114 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .219 BAA

Erbe, age 20 --------150.2 IP, 120 H, 82 R, 72 ER, 21 HR, 50 BB, 151 K, 4.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .215 BAA

Bergesen, age 22----148.0 IP, 143 H, 59 R, 53 ER, 11 HR, 27 BB, 72 K, 3.22 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .253 BAA (Bowie only)

Hernandez, age 23---141.0 IP, 112 H, 53 R, 42 ER, 10 HR, 71 BB, 166 K, 2.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .217 BAA

To me that's a very tight contest. I still like Erbe's season the best, despite the higher ERA and HR rate, because of his age at the level he's at. After than I'd probably say Britton, Bergesen, Hernandez, but you could justify about any order you'd want.

I'm satisfied with Britton at no. 9 but I still think Erbe should have been ranked higher than him.

[TakebackOPACY]

Thought it would be fun to throw out some Delmarva numbers:

Britton, age 20 ----- 147.1 IP, 118 H, 68 R, 51 ER, 9 HR, 49 BB, 114 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .219 BAA

Bergesen, age 21----- 94.1 IP, 75 H, 30 R, 23 ER, 3 HR, 17 BB, 73 K, 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .214 BAA

Hernandez, age 21-- 145.0 IP, 134 H, 83 R, 67 ER, 13 HR, 71 BB, 154 K, 4.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .240 BAA

Erbe, age 18 ------- 115.0 IP, 88 H, 47 R, 41 ER, 2 HR, 47 BB, 133 K, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .214 BAA

Factoring in age, I'd rank these (1) Erbe, (2) Bergesen, (3) Britton, (4) Hernandez.

Now throw in Britton's 2008 performance vs. the 2008 performance of Erbe, Bergesen and Hernandez this year:

Britton, age 20 ----- 147.1 IP, 118 H, 68 R, 51 ER, 9 HR, 49 BB, 114 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .219 BAA

Erbe, age 20 --------150.2 IP, 120 H, 82 R, 72 ER, 21 HR, 50 BB, 151 K, 4.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .215 BAA

Bergesen, age 22----148.0 IP, 143 H, 59 R, 53 ER, 11 HR, 27 BB, 72 K, 3.22 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .253 BAA (Bowie only)

Hernandez, age 23---141.0 IP, 112 H, 53 R, 42 ER, 10 HR, 71 BB, 166 K, 2.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .217 BAA

To me that's a very tight contest. I still like Erbe's season the best, despite the higher ERA and HR rate, because of his age at the level he's at. After than I'd probably say Britton, Bergesen, Hernandez, but you could justify about any order you'd want.

I'm satisfied with Britton at no. 9 but I still think Erbe should have been ranked higher than him.

Where are they now?

				IP	H	ERA	BB	KJohn Stephens (1999)		170	148	3.23	36	217Randy Perez (2000)		154	147	3.56	33	123Matt Schwager (2001)		103	85	2.27	14	80Dave Crouthers (2002)		129	117	3.35	58	108Zach Dixon (2004)		139	112	2.53	69	120Luis Ramirez (2005)		162.1	131	2.55	54	155

I'm excited about Britton, but I think I've been conditioned to wait for success above the SAL.

[Enjoy Terror]

At the same age, Erbe is a whole division higher than Britton. Erbe will be in Bowie next year, and Britton will be in Frederick. I'm not sure I understand why Erbe is lower than Britton, but it seems that OH's opinion of Erbe is not what the rest of the world thinks about Erbe. This has been demonstrated several times through the course of these polls.

[Tony-OH]

Question: From the stats, it looks like Zach Duke hasn't hit his ceiling, either. He's lifetime 26-39 with a 4.39 ERA, allows 11 hits per 9 innings and fans 4.6. I hope Britton's ceiling is a lot higher than that.

There's nothing wrong with becoming a solid major league starter, even if it's a number four guy.

[Tony-OH]

At the same age, Erbe is a whole division higher than Britton. Erbe will be in Bowie next year, and Britton will be in Frederick. I'm not sure I understand why Erbe is lower than Britton, but it seems that OH's opinion of Erbe is not what the rest of the world thinks about Erbe. This has been demonstrated several times through the course of these polls.

This is a classic, can I use this?

[TakebackOPACY]

At the same age, Erbe is a whole division higher than Britton. Erbe will be in Bowie next year, and Britton will be in Frederick. I'm not sure I understand why Erbe is lower than Britton, but it seems that OH's opinion of Erbe is not what the rest of the world thinks about Erbe. This has been demonstrated several times through the course of these polls.

I'll preface by saying that I agree with you and most here that I would rank Erbe higher. That said, it's a matter of opinion and perspective. When it comes around, Tony will explain that he has good reasons to change his projection for Erbe. It doesn't mean Tony's projection will be right or wrong. I'm sure he'll be hoping Erbe improves in the areas of concern and proves him wrong. But I have a feeling that Tony would say that even if Erbe does progress, there's reason to think that he's down a path that projects to be a lights out reliever. And while Britton is still a long way away, at this point he projects to be a solid starter. From that perspective, advantage Britton.

Regardless, they'll both be handed the ball come next spring. EDIT: And it won't be a competition to see "who was right" on the OH message board.

[TakebackOPACY]

Question: From the stats, it looks like Zach Duke hasn't hit his ceiling, either. He's lifetime 26-39 with a 4.39 ERA, allows 11 hits per 9 innings and fans 4.6. I hope Britton's ceiling is a lot higher than that.

There's nothing wrong with becoming a solid major league starter, even if it's a number four guy.

Numbers wise, I think I'm hoping Bergesen can be Zach Duke.

[Tony-OH]

This is the first pick that a sort of strongly disagree with. I think Britton could eventually be a mid-rotation guy, primarily because his slider can be a plus- to fringe-plus-plus pitch (for me). However, I didn't see the consistency from it this season I'd look for to say, "Nice! He's figured this pitch out!" With a true plus-slider, Britton could be a very good groundball pitcher -- maybe without having to improve his changeup/curveball as an offspeed pitch.

I just don't see the full package here yet. He looks to me like he's more likely to end up in the pen, though there is tons of time for him to improve what he needs to in order to stay a starter. I think HiA/AA will be a good measuring stick. It's unlikely he keeps up the same productivity without improving his slider and an offspeed (either CB/CH). Next year would be the year I'd expect him to jump up the prospect rankings, provided he continues to make strides.

I think a bump this year is a little premature, though I commend the OH Staff for sticking to their guns and going with Britton if they think he is the 9th best prospect in the system. As I've noted many times before, I tend to be very conservative (often times overly-so) when it comes to looking for and acknowledging improvements in areas of need for prospects. I'd like to see Britton effective above LoA before giving him the nod, because I don't think he misses enough bats for his stuff to play as a potential front-end guy. As with Bergesen this year (and I'm not really compairing their stuff, just the fact that they're both groundball pitchers) Britton will live on keeping the ball down, changing speeds and getting good boring action on his fastball. Adding a slider makes him a good ML relief pitcher and fine-tuning FB/SL and CB/CH puts him in the rotation discussion, for me.

Interesting pick -- wondering what this thread is going to hold today.

A lot of what you are saying is right on, I don't really disagree, but it comes down to the fact if things break right for him he's got the delivery, the ability to get groundball outs on a moving-sinking fastball, and a slider that has improved a lot since he was drafted.

I'm pretty leery of South Atlantic League stats myself because it's littered with guys who did well there but never made it, but I just think Britton is that best bet to have a solid major league career at this point on the list.

I think some people (not you) are going overboard a bit with their love/passion for certain players because really, the chances are is that most of these players will not reach their ceilings and most are not going to have long major league careers. The good news is that we can pretty deep on this list with guys who have real major league skills, but like most minor league players, they have their warts as well. It's not popular to point out those warts to the fans, and that's part of the reason I think I'm taking a lot of heat despite the fact that I believe I've clearly shown my line of thinking.

Everyone is certainly allowed an opinion and it's fun to have the discussions, but for me, Britton is a solid pick at this position.

Britton has a lot of hoops to jump through, but for me, he's got the best chance to be a starter in the major leagues of the guys left and that's why he's sitting here at #9.

Maybe people should look at this as a draft. Sometimes you go with the solid pick who might not reach his ceiling, but is a good bet to become something in the major leagues. I kind of look at Britton like that. If he continues to develop, he's got a nice chance to be a starter in the major leagues, but at worse with his ability to get groundballs and dominate lefties, we're looking at solid major league left-handed reliever.

[ScottieBaseball]

Despite flying under the radar as a top prospect in some circles, 20-year old Zach Britton comes in at number nine here at OH. This young left-hander uses a sinking fastball to get groundball out after groundball out and may be just scratching his potential.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=1803

I think that's the key to the Britton pick here...he's just scratching the potential, and that's not just coming from the OH staff. This summer one member of the O's front office sounded off to me unprovoked on Britton. The sinking heater and the ever-improving slider coupled with his growing pitching IQ has quietly moved him up our list.

Several of the staff's preliminary lists had Britton right around the Top 10, but I think as our discussions evolved the consensus was that he deserved the #9 slot.