The battles I want to see in ST

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per Fangraphs he was 9 for 15 on bunt hit attempts.   He also was successful 4 of 5 times on sac bunts.   Pretty nice ratios in both regards.    

In his previous 2 seasons he was 4 for 13 when bunting for a hit, and 4 for 6 on sac bunts.   

Looking around the league, I do see some players who bunt pretty often and have success rates over 50%.    César Hernández, 39 bunt hits over the last 5 years (2nd in MLB) at a 57.4% success rate; Rougned Odor, 30 bunt hits (4th) at a 53.6% success rate.   The median success rate for the top 30 in total bunt hits is a bit over 40%.

So, do I think Mullins could bunt as often as he did last year and sustain a 60% success rate?    No. But is it a really good weapon in his arsenal?    Yes.   He’s really, really good at it.    

Without the bunt attempts I come up with .232/.285/.384 for last year.   But I think the bunts will always boost those numbers a little, though not as much as last year.   

The OPS projections I’ve seen on Mullins have him between .637 (PECOTA) and .689 (Steamer).    That’s a reasonable range to guess, and if Mullins falls in there, he’s not a starting OF.    But he’ll get some playing time and we’ll see if he hits better than expected.    

Yes, the bunting will be a weapon.  But he won’t be getting 100-150 more OPS out of them if he gets 600 at bats.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

However, I think O's management want to see Mancini play a lot of 1B because it makes him more tradable.

Getting 6 guys regular playing time in 5 spots in not that hard.   Each guy just gets a day off every 6 games. Plus injuries will cause time off for some players.

I do think they will be the rotation, as you say.  Matchups, injuries, resting guys, etc..will dictate they do this anyway.

What will be interesting to watch is how long it will be those 6 guys doing the rotation.  The health of Hays and Santander, as well as the stamina of Mancini will dictate a lot of that.

[MurphDogg]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I hope Mullins gets a bigger slice of the pie than Stewart v. RHP 

Nah, corner outfield defense is not important enough for Mullins to get starts over Stewart, considering how much better Stewart's bat is.

Bring Mullins in as a defensive upgrade in the late innings (probably Mullins to center with Hays to the corner), but Mullins's bat doesn't play as a starting corner outfielder (nor is it good enough to push Hays to the corner).

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure that other teams know that Mancini can play first base if he's healthy.

Coming back from cancer I think its beneficial to show Mancini has the stamina to play 1B regularly.  Playing DH too often may put his stamina in question.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Coming back from cancer I think its beneficial to show Mancini has the stamina to play 1B regularly.  Playing DH too often may put his stamina in question.

Yea, I don't think it's a huge concern that playing first will alleviate.

If he plays two on, one off, folks will be more concerned.

[Sports Guy]

We have heard a lot of people recently talking about not rushing players.  The reasoning for that is you want them to develop and be ready to stay here for good.

Well, what about the opposite (or something that is reasonably the opposite) of that?  Why are we taking developed players and trying to find a way to have them play above their capabilities?  How many players, throughout history, have been forced to start instead of relieve or forced to have 600 at bats when it should have been 300 at bats and it has cost them their careers?  Lots of guys probably could have had longer careers had their organizations used them properly.

But here we are, taking a guy that has value and could stay in the league for a while and we are trying to have him do something he’s not capable of doing.  It’s a disservice to Mullins and the team to try to fit him into the mold of a 600 at bat player.

Maybe he can be a poor mans Jerrod Dyson.  Not sure he will be quite as good defensively as Dyson has been but he can still be that type of piece...but if you try to force him into something he’s not, he will be out of the game.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, corner outfield defense is not important enough for Mullins to get starts over Stewart, considering how much better Stewart's bat is.

Bring Mullins in as a defensive upgrade in the late innings (probably Mullins to center with Hays to the corner), but Mullins's bat doesn't play as a starting corner outfielder.

The big difference in this discussion is whether Mullins can put up enough offense to be a regular.    If he can have close to a 350 OBP and be on a pace to score 100 runs as a leadoff hitter he can play center or left.   

Having Mullins and Hays is the same outfield helps the defense and therefore the pitchers.  Hyde is likely move guys around the outfield, 1B and DH to get everyone playing time.

[Sports Guy]

350 OBP?  Wtf?  323 OBP in his MiL career and a 290 OBP in the majors.

This is what I’m talking about.  Where the hell are these expectations coming from?  Are you just pulling stats out of thin air with no thought or reasoning at all?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

350 OBP?  Wtf?  323 OBP in his MiL career and a 290 OBP in the majors.

This is what I’m talking about.  Where the hell are these expectations coming from?  Are you just pulling stats out of thin air with no thought or reasoning at all?

Obviously his .600 batting average on bunt attempts in 2020 is sustainable over 600 at bats and 200 bunt attempts.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We have heard a lot of people recently talking about not rushing players.  The reasoning for that is you want them to develop and be ready to stay here for good.

Well, what about the opposite (or something that is reasonably the opposite) of that?  Why are we taking developed players and trying to find a way to have them play above their capabilities?  How many players, throughout history, have been forced to start instead of relieve or forced to have 600 at bats when it should have been 300 at bats and it has cost them their careers?  Lots of guys probably could have had longer careers had their organizations used them properly.

But here we are, taking a guy that has value and could stay in the league for a while and we are trying to have him do something he’s not capable of doing.  It’s a disservice to Mullins and the team to try to fit him into the mold of a 600 at bat player.

Maybe he can be a poor mans Jerrod Dyson.  Not sure he will be quite as good defensively as Dyson has been but he can still be that type of piece...but if you try to force him into something he’s not, he will be out of the game.

Sounds like so much hot air.   Did it hurt Steve Pearce career to have him play 2B?   No.  If a player proves he can't do something he just falls back to what he can do.  But so far, in Mullins' case we don't know what he can and can't do until he gets an opportunity.  

If Mullins is given the opportunity and fail at being a regular he will never get 600 at bats.   He just scales back to what he does well.   But he has to be given the chance first.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Sounds like so much hot air.   Did it hurt Steve Pearce career to have him play 2B?   No.  If a player proves he can't do something he just falls back to what he can do.  But so far, in Mullins' case we don't know what he can and can't do until he gets an opportunity.  

If Mullins is given the opportunity and fail at being a regular he will never get 600 at bats.   He just scales back to what he does well.   But he has to be given the chance first.

Sure hurt him to play that game in the outfield against the Red Sox. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

350 OBP?  Wtf?  323 OBP in his MiL career and a 290 OBP in the majors.

This is what I’m talking about.  Where the hell are these expectations coming from?  Are you just pulling stats out of thin air with no thought or reasoning at all?

I already told you.  348 OBP last year batting left-handed.   Now he will bat left-handed vs lefty.   He has a chance to hit for a 350 OBP.   If he gets the opportunity he will prove he can or he can't.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I already told you.  348 OBP last year batting left-handed.   Now he will bat left-handed vs lefty.   He has a chance to hit for a 350 OBP.   If he gets the opportunity he will prove he can or he can't.

If he could hit left handed pitching while batting left handed why would he have ever bothered to switch hit?

 

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do think they will be the rotation, as you say.  Matchups, injuries, resting guys, etc..will dictate they do this anyway.

What will be interesting to watch is how long it will be those 6 guys doing the rotation.  The health of Hays and Santander, as well as the stamina of Mancini will dictate a lot of that.

I agree

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I already told you.  348 OBP last year batting left-handed.   Now he will bat left-handed vs lefty.   He has a chance to hit for a 350 OBP.   If he gets the opportunity he will prove he can or he can't.

Lol...speaking of hot air.

He had 115 at bats batting left handed last year!!!   Like, in all seriousness, do you really just not comprehend what a small sample size is and means?

And do you really think that’s he’s going to be some asset hitting lefties as a LH hitter?

This just makes zero sense.