The battles I want to see in ST

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he could hit left handed pitching while batting left handed why would he have ever bothered to switch hit?

 

He was signed as a switch hitting.   It was part of his profile to try to develop hitting right-handed. It did not work.  So now he will hit lefthanded vs all pitchers.  Listen to his interviews.  He is clear about why he switch hit and why he is now batting left-handed.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I already told you.  348 OBP last year batting left-handed.   Now he will bat left-handed vs lefty.   He has a chance to hit for a 350 OBP.   If he gets the opportunity he will prove he can or he can't.

I will be astounded if he puts up a .348 OBP.   But I hope he does.   

The fact is, we have a lot of competition in our outfield.    We aren’t going to stick anyone out there for 600 PA and see how they do.   We’re going to give everyone opportunities and over the course of the season give more playing time to those who have played the best.     Do I think Mullins is going to be one of our top 3 outfield performers?   No.   But that’s why they play the games.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol...speaking of hot air.

He had 115 at bats batting left handed last year!!!   Like, in all seriousness, do you really just not comprehend what a small sample size is and means?

And do you really think that’s he’s going to be some asset hitting lefties as a LH hitter?

This just makes zero sense. 

But he had a triple batting lefty on lefty in the game the other day.

That's clear evidence that he can do it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

He was signed as a switch hitting.   It was part of his profile to try to develop hitting right-handed. It did not work.  So now he will hit lefthanded vs all pitchers.  Listen to his interviews.  He is clear about why he switch hit and why he is now batting left-handed.

I mean originally why did he pick up switch hitting? 

If you can bash lefty on lefty why wouldn't you just do that?

 

 

[Frobby]

One other thing: only 70 players in all of MLB got 600 PA in 2019.   That’s 2-3 per team.   I doubt Mullins will be in the top 2-3 on the O’s in PA, even if he plays very well.   

[Frobby]

By my rough calculation, Mullins had a .329 OBP vs. RHP in the minors.  He was only over .339 once.   So to expect him to put up a .348 OBP vs. RHP in the majors based on last season is highly optimistic, to put it mildly.    It’s also very optimistic to think his OBP vs. LHP will be as good as it is vs. RHP now that he’s stopped switch hitting.   On average last year, LHB in the AL were 21 points lower in OBP against LHB than RHB.    There’s no reason to think Mullins will beat that number, and plenty of reason to think he’ll do worse.  

All things considered, I’d say an overall OBP over .310 for Mullins would be a great result for him.   The projections I’ve seen have him between .288 and .306.   
 

[NCRaven]

I think that Mullins would be more useful as a fourth outfielder than Stewart since he can enter games as a defensive replacement or pinch runner late in games, and play CF, as well, as the corners.  I think Stewart becomes a left handed Nunez, a DH on a team that is likely to have better, and eventually cheaper, options.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One other thing: only 70 players in all of MLB got 600 PA in 2019.   That’s 2-3 per team.   I doubt Mullins will be in the top 2-3 on the O’s in PA, even if he plays very well.   

In a normal year the lead off hitters for the O's get 660 AB.     We know that Hays is injury prone.  So is Diaz.  Santander has had injuries though less injury prone than the other two.   Hays can play  left, center and right when healthy and is more likely to move to a corner than Mullins.  

Mancini may be traded which would move Mountcastle to 1B for the last two month of the season opening up left field.

Over that last three years Mullins has played in 93% of the games for the teams he was on.   He has not been injury prone.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I think that Mullins would be more useful as a fourth outfielder than Stewart since he can enter games as a defensive replacement or pinch runner late in games, and play CF, as well, as the corners.  I think Stewart becomes a left handed Nunez, a DH on a team that is likely to have better, and eventually cheaper, options.

I think the reasons you outlined are why Mullins is a better 5th OFer than Stewart.  Your 4th OFer will probably get a lot of playing time.  I would rather Stewart see a lot of playing time than Mullins.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In a normal year the lead off hitters for the O's get 660 AB.     We know that Hays is injury prone.  So is Diaz.  Santander has had injuries though less injury prone than the other two.   Hays can play  left, center and right when healthy and is more likely to move to a corner than Mullins.  

Mancini may be traded which would move Mountcastle to 1B for the last two month of the season opening up left field.

Over that last three years Mullins has played in 93% of the games for the teams he was on.   He has not been injury prone.  

No, he has just been allergic to good production.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By my rough calculation, Mullins had a .329 OBP vs. RHP in the minors.  He was only over .339 once.   So to expect him to put up a .348 OBP vs. RHP in the majors based on last season is highly optimistic, to put it mildly.    It’s also very optimistic to think his OBP vs. LHP will be as good as it is vs. RHP now that he’s stopped switch hitting.   On average last year, LHB in the AL were 21 points lower in OBP against LHB than RHB.    There’s no reason to think Mullins will beat that number, and plenty of reason to think he’ll do worse.  

All things considered, I’d say an overall OBP over .310 for Mullins would be a great result for him.   The projections I’ve seen have him between .288 and .306.   
 

I expect him to hit better vs LHP batting left-handed than he did batting right-handed.  Lefthanded is his natural side.   

If he hits for a 310 OBP he will be a backup, defensive outfielder.   But that is not where I see this going.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In a normal year the lead off hitters for the O's get 660 AB.     We know that Hays is injury prone.  So is Diaz.  Santander has had injuries though less injury prone than the other two.   Hays can play  left, center and right when healthy and is more likely to move to a corner than Mullins.  

Mancini may be traded which would move Mountcastle to 1B for the last two month of the season opening up left field.

Over that last three years Mullins has played in 93% of the games for the teams he was on.   He has not been injury prone.  

2019- Nope

2018- Nope

2017- Nope

2016- Nope

2015- Nope

2014- Nope

2013- Bingo, 667 for Machado.

The last time an Oriole hitter had 660 at bats was 2013.

 

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the reasons you outlined are why Mullins is a better 5th OFer than Stewart.  Your 4th OFer will probably get a lot of playing time.  I would rather Stewart see a lot of playing time than Mullins.

I think we're splitting hairs there.  It's likely that Hays, Santander, and Diaz are better defenders than Stewart.  I think it's also likely that Mountcastle will be roughly equivalent defensively in left and a better hitter than Stewart.  So, if we were only to keep four outfielders, I'd want one to be a late inning defender with speed.  Mullins fits that better than Stewart.  Also, if Hays is the injury prone player that you're concerned about, your extra outfielder should be able to play CF.  Again, advantage Mullins.  Now, if Davis was gone, you'd have room for a 5th outfielder and could keep both.  Unfortunately, he's not gone.  Up until this year, I don't think the black hole that is Chris Davis was a huge roster problem.  We're now at the point that it is.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I expect him to hit better vs RHP batting left-handed than he did batting right-handed.  Lefthanded is his natural side.   

If he hits for a 310 OBP he will be a backup, defensive outfielder.   But that is not where I see this going.

So, what is your official prediction for Mullins in 2021?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I think we're splitting hairs there.  It's likely that Hays, Santander, and Diaz are better defenders than Stewart.  I think it's also likely that Mountcastle will be roughly equivalent defensively in left and a better hitter than Stewart.  So, if we were only to keep four outfielders, I'd want one to be a late inning defender with speed.  Mullins fits that better than Stewart.  Also, if Hays is the injury prone player that you're concerned about, your extra outfielder should be able to play CF.  Again, advantage Mullins.  Now, if Davis was gone, you'd have room for a 5th outfielder and could keep both.  Unfortunately, he's not gone.  Up until this year, I don't think the black hole that is Chris Davis was a huge roster problem.  We're now at the point that it is.

I'd like better players, advantage Stewart.