More on Roberts and Chicago

[davearm]

Excellent post. Great point about the AL East. I am a big Schuerholz fan but he would not have won 14 consecutive titles in the AL East.

Just stop for a moment and think how silly it is to tie a GM's worth to WS titles.

If the Rays win the WS, then Friedman is the best GM in baseball, and if the Phils win, it's Gillick? Obviously that's preposterous.

All a GM can do is put his team in a position to win. Whether they actually do win or not is dependent on factors completely out of his control, such as health, luck, and who happens to be hot/cold.

MacPhail has been very average in terms of consistently positioning his teams to win. Worse than Beane for sure, under very similar circumstances. Worse than Hendry with the same team, also.

[davearm]

'davearm'... Let's play GM's a moment here.

You made me aware that you are interested in Luke Scott, and have asked what it would take to get him.

My response would be that I'd want Sean Marshall, Mitch Atkins, and Ronny Cedeno. Deal?

I wouldn't say flat-out no, but I'd explore other avenues first, beginning with Hermida.

[Greg Pappas]

I wouldn't say flat-out no, but I'd explore other avenues first, beginning with Hermida.

If other options are deemed too costly, what are your thoughts on this deal?

[davearm]

If other options are deemed too costly, what are your thoughts on this deal?

Atkins and Cedeno are fringey and expendable.

Marshall is a great guy to have, since he can function effectively as a starter or a reliever. The Cubs would have to assess where they stand on about a half-dozen guys before deciding whether dealing Marshall for a solid but unspectacular LH OF is worthwhile. If they think Gaudin/Hill/Samardzija/Guzman could step in and start some games if needed, then maybe they do it.

[Mike B]

Just stop for a moment and think how silly it is to tie a GM's worth to WS titles.

If the Rays win the WS, then Friedman is the best GM in baseball, and if the Phils win, it's Gillick? Obviously that's preposterous.

All a GM can do is put his team in a position to win. Whether they actually do win or not is dependent on factors completely out of his control, such as health, luck, and who happens to be hot/cold.

MacPhail has been very average in terms of consistently positioning his teams to win. Worse than Beane for sure, under very similar circumstances. Worse than Hendry with the same team, also.

The argument started over the term accomplished. If you are using the term accomplished (your term) than the definition is accomplishments. The WS is the ultimate accomplishment. AM has 2 and the combination of Hendry and Beane have 0. Making the playoffs is certainly an accomplishment, one that we have not had in 12 years but a lot of factors go into that. Beane gets a lot of press but he has not come close to having a team finish the deal. As far as Hendry, take off the Cub jersey for a second and put aside your dislike for AM. To say, Hendry in any way equates better than AM is silly. The core of your team was started by AM. Hendry has spent the $$$ but has accomplished very little in terms of results. With all due respect comparing Hendry's achievements to AM is silly. Like it or not, you have o recognize that AM built the Twins in a small market setting and they won 2 World Championships. It will be interesting to see if he learned anything from his time in Chicago in regards to spending money when and if PA gives him the go ahead.

[Mackus]

The argument started over the term accomplished. If you are using the term accomplished (your term) than the definition is accomplishments. The WS is the ultimate accomplishment. AM has 2 and the combination of Hendry and Beane have 0. Making the playoffs is certainly an accomplishment, one that we have not had in 12 years but a lot of factors go into that. Beane gets a lot of press but he has not come close to having a team finish the deal. As far as Hendry, take off the Cub jersey for a second and put aside your dislike for AM. To say, Hendry in any way equates better than AM is silly. The core of your team was started by AM. Hendry has spent the $$$ but has accomplished very little in terms of results. With all due respect comparing Hendry's achievements to AM is silly. Like it or not, you have o recognize that AM built the Twins in a small market setting and they won 2 World Championships. It will be interesting to see if he learned anything from his time in Chicago in regards to spending money when and if PA gives him the go ahead.

I think Dave is right on this one. MacPhail didn't do a very good job in Chicago. He did, however, do a very good job in Minnesota, and has done good since coming to Baltimore. Winning WS is very indicative of being a good GM, but its not the only thing and certainly not the biggest deciding factor. There is nearly no difference between building a WS-winning team and building a playoff-making team, the GM has barely any role in determining which of the 8 playoff teams ends up winning the WS, that comes down to which of the players play the best over a month in October. Not something the GM has control over.

What he learned in Minnesota was how to build a playoff caliber team with limited resources. Not how to build a WS-winning team. He built a playoff caliber team that happened to win a couple of WS.

[Mike B]

I think Dave is right on this one. MacPhail didn't do a very good job in Chicago. He did, however, do a very good job in Minnesota, and has done good since coming to Baltimore. Winning WS is very indicative of being a good GM, but its not the only thing and certainly not the biggest deciding factor. There is nearly no difference between building a WS-winning team and building a playoff-making team, the GM has barely any role in determining which of the 8 playoff teams ends up winning the WS, that comes down to which of the players play the best over a month in October. Not something the GM has control over.

What he learned in Minnesota was how to build a playoff caliber team with limited resources. Not how to build a WS-winning team. He built a playoff caliber team that happened to win a couple of WS.

I do not disagree with anything you wrote. I took issue to the statement that McPhail was not as accomplished as Beane or Hendry. I respect Dave's knowledge of the game but IMO the Cubs offer to the Orioles had one serious ML ready prospect (Gallagher or Marshall) and other spare part type players (Cedeno/Murton) and then flawed prospects. That was the initial discussion.

As far as the AM accomplishment factor. AM built an organization that won 2 World Championships. That can not be discounted. He did it in a very similar enviroment that Beane works in. Hendry using the organization that AM had a hand in building has spent a lot of money but has not won even yet.

[davearm]

The argument started over the term accomplished. If you are using the term accomplished (your term) than the definition is accomplishments. The WS is the ultimate accomplishment. AM has 2 and the combination of Hendry and Beane have 0. Making the playoffs is certainly an accomplishment, one that we have not had in 12 years but a lot of factors go into that. Beane gets a lot of press but he has not come close to having a team finish the deal. As far as Hendry, take off the Cub jersey for a second and put aside your dislike for AM. To say, Hendry in any way equates better than AM is silly. The core of your team was started by AM. Hendry has spent the $$$ but has accomplished very little in terms of results. With all due respect comparing Hendry's achievements to AM is silly. Like it or not, you have o recognize that AM built the Twins in a small market setting and they won 2 World Championships. It will be interesting to see if he learned anything from his time in Chicago in regards to spending money when and if PA gives him the go ahead.

You misunderstand. I don't dislike Andy MacPhail. He's a nice guy but the bottom line is he did a poor job in the 10 years he was overseeing things in Chicago.

That's not homerism or bias or whatever other aspersions you'd like to cast, that's just truth, and any reasonable, objective analysis would come to the same conclusion.

He did do a very good job in Minnesota, although not as good a job as Beane has done in Oakland. And FWIW, MacPhail's successor in Minny (Terry Ryan) did a better job than MacPhail, too (more playoff app's).

You can use "accomplished" or any similar term of your choosing. Doesn't change the point that your focus on World Series wins is misguided. It's akin to judging pitchers using the Win statistic.

[Bloopandablast]

You misunderstand. I don't dislike Andy MacPhail. He's a nice guy but the bottom line is he did a poor job in the 10 years he was overseeing things in Chicago.

That's not homerism or bias or whatever other aspersions you'd like to cast, that's just truth, and any reasonable, objective analysis would come to the same conclusion.

He did do a very good job in Minnesota, although not as good a job as Beane has done in Oakland. And FWIW, MacPhail's successor in Minny (Terry Ryan) did a better job than MacPhail, too (more playoff app's).

You can use "accomplished" or any similar term of your choosing. Doesn't change the point that your focus on World Series wins is misguided. It's akin to judging pitchers using the Win statistic.

I would concur on the AM comments during his tenure in Chicago. I do not dislike him either. JH has been given more resources to use, no question.

The "AM failure" in Chicago was an overreliance on some young pitching talent that through no fault of AM came up injured (Dusty on the other hand does not get a free pass). AM's fault was not being quick enough to build depth as Prior Wood, et al...went down.

I also am on board with the GM assembling the talent to compete at the highest level and the manager and players making it happen over the last month.

[Mike B]

You misunderstand. I don't dislike Andy MacPhail. He's a nice guy but the bottom line is he did a poor job in the 10 years he was overseeing things in Chicago.

That's not homerism or bias or whatever other aspersions you'd like to cast, that's just truth, and any reasonable, objective analysis would come to the same conclusion.

He did do a very good job in Minnesota, although not as good a job as Beane has done in Oakland. And FWIW, MacPhail's successor in Minny (Terry Ryan) did a better job than MacPhail, too (more playoff app's).

You can use "accomplished" or any similar term of your choosing. Doesn't change the point that your focus on World Series wins is misguided. It's akin to judging pitchers using the Win statistic.

We are really get tied up in semantics but if AM turns this mess that he inherited here around and is lucky enough to deliver 2 world championships here than I will be very grateful. I think if Bartman and Alex Gonzalez had done things differently and the Cubs won in 2004 you might feel a little different. His comfort level may very well lean toward small market teams as I readily admit he did not adjust to having the resources that he had in Chicago. He admits to being conservative and methodical and that may not be compatible with Chicago, NY, Boston etc. that have competitive advantages and a larger margin for personnel mistakes.

I always read your posts with interest, we do not always agree but that is what makes this board fun.

[Enjoy Terror]

So what is the consensus here? The Orioles are doomed because MacPhail isn't in the top 10% of GMs?

Just how good of a GM does someone have to be to change the "we're doomed" attitude of a fanbase?

MacPhail took the task of reconstructing the dustbowl that is the Orioles organization. It requires pushing out the bad contracts, making timely profitable trades, and drafting well.

Is there any doubt that with the help of Joe Jordan, the Orioles have drafted well in the past two years under MacPhail?

Are any of the unfavorable contracts in the Orioles system a result of Andy MacPhail's blunders? I'm talking Mora, Tejada, Hernandez, Huff, Millar, Payton, Gibbons, Baez, Walker? No. None of them are. I think he's done a reasonable job of making due with what he has, especially by cutting Gibbons.

Is there any doubt that the Trachsel, Tejada and Bedard trades were pretty good ideas?

I mean.. yeah the jury is still out until the franchise starts winning some ball games, but does anyone think that under Beane or Epstein or Cashman or Shapiro or Hendry or Schuerholz that this club would be radically better and further along then where we are right now? There's really no way to tell, but I'm willing to bet that even under Beane we're still not any better off then where MacPhail has taken us so far.

[Bloopandablast]

So what is the consensus here? The Orioles are doomed because MacPhail isn't in the top 10% of GMs?

Just how good of a GM does someone have to be to change the "we're doomed" attitude of a fanbase?

MacPhail took the task of reconstructing the dustbowl that is the Orioles organization. It requires pushing out the bad contracts, making timely profitable trades, and drafting well.

Is there any doubt that with the help of Joe Jordan, the Orioles have drafted well in the past two years under MacPhail?

Are any of the unfavorable contracts in the Orioles system a result of Andy MacPhail's blunders? I'm talking Mora, Tejada, Hernandez, Huff, Millar, Payton, Gibbons, Baez, Walker? No. None of them are. I think he's done a reasonable job of making due with what he has, especially by cutting Gibbons.

Is there any doubt that the Trachsel, Tejada and Bedard trades were pretty good ideas?

I mean.. yeah the jury is still out until the franchise starts winning some ball games, but does anyone think that under Beane or Epstein or Cashman or Shapiro or Hendry or Schuerholz that this club would be radically better and further along then where we are right now? There's really no way to tell, but I'm willing to bet that even under Beane we're still not any better off then where MacPhail has taken us so far.

No all three were good trades.

The second portion bolded. I think that while the W's and L's likely would have been the same had Beane or someone else had been in charge there would have been more deals made and less had hand-wringing about running out Cintron like SS's or Payton like players last year. I would ask whether some opportunities were missed (and no this is not a Cub fan stating the BROB should have been traded for spare parts).

But the trades made were very sound.

[Scarey]

A few people have made points on how the Cubs current roster has a big McPhail influence to it. Also, that the 2003 Cubs had a lot to do with McPhail as well.

McPhail resigned from the Cubs in July of 2002. Here's a list of players currently on the Cubs 40 man roster who were with the Cubs when McPhail was still in Chicago.

Angel Guzman- Signed in 2001

Rich Hill- Drafted in June of 2002

Billy Petrick- Drafted in June of 2002

Michael Wuertz- Drafted in 1997

Geovany Soto- Drafted in 2001

Ronny Cedeno- Signed in 1999

Micah Hoffpauir- Drafted in 2002

Felix Pie- Signed in 2001

Carlos Zambrano- Signed in 1997

Kerry Wood- Drafted in 1995

To say these guys compose the "core" of our team is just not true.

As for the 2003 Cubs, we're talking about a team that went from a 67 win team in 2002 to a playoff team in 2003. That team made dramatic improvements and a lot of that was related to Hendry trading for Matt Clement, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzlielanek, Kenny Lofton, Randal Simon, and Aramis Ramirez as well as signing guys like Joe Borowski, and Moises Alou. Those guys listed were huge contributors to what the Cubs did in 2003 and there's no chance they make the playoffs without key moves by Hendry. Yes, McPhail had a lot to do with the team, but Hendry put them in a position to win with what McPhail already had in place.

[davearm]

A few people have made points on how the Cubs current roster has a big McPhail influence to it. Also, that the 2003 Cubs had a lot to do with McPhail as well.

McPhail resigned from the Cubs in July of 2002. Here's a list of players currently on the Cubs 40 man roster who were with the Cubs when McPhail was still in Chicago.

Angel Guzman- Signed in 2001

Rich Hill- Drafted in June of 2002

Billy Petrick- Drafted in June of 2002

Michael Wuertz- Drafted in 1997

Geovany Soto- Drafted in 2001

Ronny Cedeno- Signed in 1999

Micah Hoffpauir- Drafted in 2002

Felix Pie- Signed in 2001

Carlos Zambrano- Signed in 1997

Kerry Wood- Drafted in 1995

To say these guys compose the "core" of our team is just not true.

As for the 2003 Cubs, we're talking about a team that went from a 67 win team in 2002 to a playoff team in 2003. That team made dramatic improvements and a lot of that was related to Hendry trading for Matt Clement, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzlielanek, Kenny Lofton, Randal Simon, and Aramis Ramirez as well as signing guys like Joe Borowski, and Moises Alou. Those guys listed were huge contributors to what the Cubs did in 2003 and there's no chance they make the playoffs without key moves by Hendry. Yes, McPhail had a lot to do with the team, but Hendry put them in a position to win with what McPhail already had in place.

Even this misses the point, Scarey.

The guy who drafted, signed, and developed the players you listed?

Jim Hendry.

Before ascending to the GM role, Hendry was the Cubs' director of scouting and player development. MacPhail was his boss.

The notion that MacPhail was "The Guy" up to 2002, and Hendry after that, is not even close to accurate. This is Hendry's Cubs, including the guys acquired before and after 2002.

[Bloopandablast]

Even this misses the point, Scarey.

The guy who drafted, signed, and developed the players you listed?

Jim Hendry.

Before ascending to the GM role, Hendry was the Cubs' director of scouting and player development. MacPhail was his boss.

The notion that MacPhail was "The Guy" up to 2002, and Hendry after that, is not even close to accurate. This is Hendry's Cubs, including the guys acquired before and after 2002.

AM resigned in 2006. JH was named GM in 2002, but AM was President and CEO until October 2006.