Trade Central Station

[Ruzious]

I know we're going around in circles, but this just isn't true. He isn't a good pitcher and he gets hit very, very hard. This year is likely his absolute ceiling. #4/5 starter. The odds of him repeating this are much worse than the odds of him regressing. If TAM can get someone to give up anything of value for him, they'd be wise to jump at it.

He's sure done well for a pitcher who isn't any good. He was 38-18 in the minors with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He didn't get hit anything close to very, very hard. And a 1.29 WHIP in his first full major league season is very good. He's ahead of where both JGs (Guthrie and Garland) were at his age. Not walking a lot of batters is part of good pitching, right? What am I missing?

[allstar1579]

Sonnanstine had solid MiL numbers as well....All the reason to think he can be a good pitcher.

There isn't any indiciation in his history that says he will not be a solid starter.

Of course injuries and things like that can happen.

However, he is every bit as good as Guthrie(if you look at the stats other than ERA) right now and has a better future outlook than JG does.

Yeah, but Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson had great minor league numbers too, but on our team in the majors you see what happened. The Rays this year are much better geared to the success of a young pitcher with good defense and a great hitting lineup.

You are right, his peripherals are good, but put him on our team last year and do you think the stats end up like they did? It's the chicken or the egg argument, but a valued one. Did he have the stats he had because he played on that team on that field? Or did he have those stats regardless and he would have done the same for us? In my experience, it's about 65/35 that a guy is a product of a great environment and 35% that he can put up identical stats for different teams. Those 35% are the great pitchers, but there are different factors, comfortableness, happiness, team, day/night splits, home/away splits and those can all change drastically from one team to the next.

[Stotle]

He's sure done well for a pitcher who isn't any good. He was 38-18 in the minors with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He didn't get hit anything close to very, very hard. And a 1.29 WHIP in his first full major league season is very good. He's ahead of where both JGs (Guthrie and Garland) were at his age. Not walking a lot of batters is part of good pitching, right? What am I missing?

Your missing that the WHIP is pretty bad considering he walks no one. His HR rate and BABIP are also indicative of how average his stuff is and how hard the ball is hit when it's put in play.

Put it another way. I can throw strikes at a great clip. I'd be an excellent BP pitcher -- upper-70s to low-80s and pretty straight with a 4-seam. I could go out and walk very few major league hitters if given the chance. However, my BABIP would make me look really unlucky because I was constantly having the ball hit very very hard. That's where Sonnanstine is. He walks fewer than almost anyone yet still has an average WHIP. Without a stellar defense his WHIP would be even worse!

I just think this infatuation with Sonnastine around here is a result of looking at numbers and not bothering to ask "why?". He'll always have runners on base because he allows 1.1 hits per inning. Let's look at it a different way:

IP

Guth - 190.7

Sonn - 193.3

H

Guth - 176

Sonn - 212

He's hittable, but he gets away with it to a point because he walks so few people. That's a volatile way to go about things. His stuff doesn't permit him to become less hittable, so his margin of error rests exclusively on his ability to not walk anyone. That's a thin margin, if you ask me.

[GeorgiaBird]

Not exactly. I'm talking about in-season depth. They should be going into 09 assuming they'll need 8-10 capable starters. Davis/Hellickson wouldn't qualify in my book, though they could probably produce at a back-end level if need be. My point remains that having Niemann be the guy that never gets a chance while you play Sonnanstine/Jackson (I'd agree if it were 2003)/Talbot is a poor decision. Niemann is a better prospect/package than any of those three,

Sonnanstine clear and simple beat Niemann out for the 5th spot in spring training. And performed quite well. You can say it was a fluke and time will tell, but I think it is really tough to say having Sonnanstine in the rotation in 2008, given what he did, over Niemann was a mistake.

Now perhaps Niemann should have been in their pen this season. But that would have destroyed some of his trade value this offseason, and Niemann flat out told the team he does not view himself as a reliever and wants no part of the role. So he sent the year in AAA. Again, you are entitled to call having him there a bad decision. But things worked out for them pretty well this year. So I doubt they mind.

and regardless of how other teams value him TAM doesn't have any leverage if their choice is to expose him or trade him. Further, no matter what a team gives it won't be for #3 value considering they can say to TAM -- "If he's a #3 why are you promoting a bunch of back-enders in front of him?".

Someone else on here made this point the other day, but it is worth repeating again. This is one of the biggest misperceptions in trade talk on this site. The opinion of the team that is selling < the opinion of the teams that are buying. Niemann's trade value is not determined by what the Rays think of him if more than one team agrees with you and think the Rays have misused him. If you are correct, or at least if two GMs in baseball think you are correct, there will be a market for him regardless of who they promoted ahead of him. (I would note as well that your premise is incorrect: No one was promoted ahead of him. Both Sonnanstine and Jackson were on the team in 2007.)

I don't think they need to part with a bunch of pitchers, the depth is good so keep it. I'd love to have Sonnanstine ready to step-in if there's an injury. I just don't want him ever throwing any meaningful innings for me. Just let Price/Niemann/Talbot/Jackson/Sonnanstine compete for the finals two rotation spots in the Spring. Niemann performed and still wasn't given a shot this year -- it's kind of silly. Oh well, TAM is much more in the know so they must see something big I'm missing.

If they follow your advice and those guys beat out Niemann (again), they are in real trouble: Having to trade him at the end of spring training would be a terrible situation vs. putting him in a package in December.

[GeorgiaBird]

but put him on our team last year and do you think the stats end up like they did?

FWIW, he was on the 2007 Rays that won only 66 games, worse than these Os. In 130 innings as a rookie he pitched to a 1.36 WHIP on a terrible defensive team. Not all-star, but much better than Garrett Olson's 1.7 WHIP in 132 innings this year (his second year with MLB experience). I don't want to over-rate the guy, but to compare him to Olson or Penn just isn't backed up.

[Singleton]

Yeah, I don't see TAM trading Brignac for anything. But if they were shopping him, this sort of deal would be a good one for them and, I think, ultimately a bad one for BAL.

You can have Sonnanstine in your rotation. I won't begrudge you. Just remember that his ratio is more dependant on his not walking anyone than his striking a bunch of people out. It's nice not to walk (especially for those of us watching the BAL staff) but it's even better to have non-fringy stuff. I hold onto Hernandez and see what he turns into. I can draft a potential Sonnanstine in the third or fourth round of every draft and honestly I could probably grab one in the second day.

Final point of order, Sonnanstine wasn't a rookie. Though, you should use his rookie stats instead, since the ratio is even better -- 3.73. :thumbsup1:

Downside is he had an ERA+ of 73 to go with that...yuck.

He benefitted more than anyone from the Rays having one of the best defenses around. Lots of balls in play -- lots of potential hits and potential runs.

If you can draft a Sonnanstine every year in the 3rd or 4th round, AM needs to hire you immediately. We could go over the O's 3rd and 4th round draft picks over the years and we'll see that many of these picks never even sniffed the majors let alone produced at the level Sonnanstine has already achieved.

Sonnanstine's thrown over 300 major league innings. I'd be curious if you can name a few pitchers who posted a k/bb ratio of over 3 in their first 2 years who soon became poor starting pitchers (not due to injuries). Again, k/bb ratio is a very strong predictor.

It's great when an "expert" says a minor leaguer is going to be a #1 starter and not as swell when they say he's a "back of the rotation starter." The fact is, at some point, results on the field matter more than what someone says.

Obviously, Sonnanstine is not a sure thing. Who is? But getting back to the original point of the thread, if even a few teams are as strong on him as many of us on this board (and it's a good bet), then TB will be able to get back more than you offer.

[Stotle]

If you can draft a Sonnanstine every year in the 3rd or 4th round, AM needs to hire you immediately. We could go over the O's 3rd and 4th round draft picks over the years and we'll see that many of these picks never even sniffed the majors let alone produced at the level Sonnanstine has already achieved.

Sonnanstine's thrown over 300 major league innings. I'd be curious if you can name a few pitchers who posted a k/bb ratio of over 3 in their first 2 years who soon became poor starting pitchers (not due to injuries). Again, k/bb ratio is a very strong predictor.

It's great when an "expert" says a minor leaguer is going to be a #1 starter and not as swell when they say he's a "back of the rotation starter." The fact is, at some point, results on the field matter more than what someone says.

Obviously, Sonnanstine is not a sure thing. Who is? But getting back to the original point of the thread, if even a few teams are as strong on him as many of us on this board (and it's a good bet), then TB will be able to get back more than you offer.

You're buying into a general truism (bb/k rate being an indicator of success) without looking at the whole picture (a super-low walk rate will throw off that stat as a predictive tool if hits are inflated to make up for the walks).

Here's another example: Let's say I set up a pitching machine on the mound that changes speed from 75 to 85 to 95 MPH without tipping off the batter. I am guaranteeing that the batting machine walks no one and the odds are I'll strike out some based on the ability to change speeds, alone. Would you wager that the pitching machine could then be an effective ML starter?

It's an extreme example but its purpose is to set a floor. Sonnanstine is better than a pitching machine. He locates fairly well in the zone in addition to throwing strikes and he gets okay action on his curve. He has no action on his fastball and his changeup, and the difference in velocity isn't killer. He's around the plate and when batters hit the ball they hit it hard more often than they do against someone with better stuff because it just isn't that difficult with a mid-80s fastball and an average breaking ball.

Step away from the BB/K rate a little, or dig into it deeper because you can't generally apply it to every type of pitcher. It isn't necessarily a good predictive measure for a pitcher like Sonnanstine.

[Stotle]

If you can draft a Sonnanstine every year in the 3rd or 4th round, AM needs to hire you immediately. We could go over the O's 3rd and 4th round draft picks over the years and we'll see that many of these picks never even sniffed the majors let alone produced at the level Sonnanstine has already achieved.

Jordan did draft a Sonnanstine-type pitcher in the 6th round -- Rick Zagone. The Twins genrally pick up at least one a year. Command guys with not great stuff. The reason you don't hear about them all the time is it's very unlikely someone like Sonnanstine actually hits his ceiling of a back-end guy. Too many things have to go perfectly for it to happen. It's great for Sonnanstine that he has made it as far as he has, but it's folly to 1) assume it will continue, or 2) expect his production to actually improve.

[Stotle]

Sonnanstine clear and simple beat Niemann out for the 5th spot in spring training. And performed quite well. You can say it was a fluke and time will tell, but I think it is really tough to say having Sonnanstine in the rotation in 2008, given what he did, over Niemann was a mistake.

Now perhaps Niemann should have been in their pen this season. But that would have destroyed some of his trade value this offseason, and Niemann flat out told the team he does not view himself as a reliever and wants no part of the role. So he sent the year in AAA. Again, you are entitled to call having him there a bad decision. But things worked out for them pretty well this year. So I doubt they mind.

Someone else on here made this point the other day, but it is worth repeating again. This is one of the biggest misperceptions in trade talk on this site. The opinion of the team that is selling < the opinion of the teams that are buying. Niemann's trade value is not determined by what the Rays think of him if more than one team agrees with you and think the Rays have misused him. If you are correct, or at least if two GMs in baseball think you are correct, there will be a market for him regardless of who they promoted ahead of him. (I would note as well that your premise is incorrect: No one was promoted ahead of him. Both Sonnanstine and Jackson were on the team in 2007.)

If they follow your advice and those guys beat out Niemann (again), they are in real trouble: Having to trade him at the end of spring training would be a terrible situation vs. putting him in a package in December.

Well, this is an easy one because it has to play out over the next year. So I guess we'll see what happens. Good convo -- I never mind disagreeing with someone who presents their case as well as you have.

Regarding Sonnanstine/Jackson, my case was not fully stated. I don't think either earned a spot in this year's rotation, despite being part of the team last year. Both are pretty bad and produced at right around where you'd expect a #4 to produce during huge bounce-back years. To not use someone with a much higher ceiling in that instance doesn't make much sense to me. Oh well.

[GeorgiaBird]

And that is the bottom line, we will find out soon enough. FWIW I will be very surprised if the Rays trade Sonny, but who knows. I think the most likely outcome is Jackson + fodder for a guy like Holliday, or Kaz in the sort of deal on the level of Young/Garza with a young hitter coming back, and pieces like Niemann and Brignac part of all of those discussions.

It will be interesting to see what becomes of Niemann. Perhaps he is not fully appreciated because he is a leftover from the last administration, but for someone with his talent he has constantly disappointed them. The same could be said of Dukes and Young, and you saw what became of them. (One could certainly make the argument they did not get full return for either, though it remains to be seen if Young becomes a power hitter or Dukes can play everyday.) My vibe is Niemann is headed the same direction.

[Stotle]

And that is the bottom line, we will find out soon enough. FWIW I will be very surprised if the Rays trade Sonny, but who knows. I think the most likely outcome is Jackson + fodder for a guy like Holliday, or Kaz in the sort of deal on the level of Young/Garza with a young hitter coming back, and pieces like Niemann and Brignac part of all of those discussions.

It will be interesting to see what becomes of Niemann. Perhaps he is not fully appreciated because he is a leftover from the last administration, but for someone with his talent he has constantly disappointed them. The same could be said of Dukes and Young, and you saw what became of them. (One could certainly make the argument they did not get full return for either, though it remains to be seen if Young becomes a power hitter or Dukes can play everyday.) My vibe is Niemann is headed the same direction.

Appreciate your take on it. You certainly could be right with regards to Niemann and the current FO. Certainly isn't good when you hear a player say something like they "won't throw outof the pen", or something to that extent.

I was one who panned the deal for Garza, but Maddon and Co. somehow got through that thick skull of his () and got him to throw his CB and to stop being such a mental case on the mound. He grew up a lot this year -- if he doesn't regress, I won't be as down on the deal as I was. I still think Young can be very good, but I expected more power by now. Time will tell.

[GeorgiaBird]

And by the way I am not for a second trying to say I think the Rays front office is beyond mistakes. There was a time last winter before the Young/Garza deal was made where there was a proposal on the table that would have sent Crawford & Niemann to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum and something (I don't know what, but perhaps in IF). There had to be a time this season when Crawford was on the DL or swinging at everything and Garza was punching catchers where they had to be saying "what if." Now both front offices had cold feet about that deal so who knows if it could have happened, and the talks with the Giants did net them Eduardo Morlan instead of a Juan Rincon-type, but that is a great what if situation.

I was one who panned the deal for Garza, but Maddon and Co. somehow got through that thick skull of his () and got him to throw his CB and to stop being such a mental case on the mound. He grew up a lot this year -- if he doesn't regress, I won't be as down on the deal as I was. I still think Young can be very good, but I expected more power by now. Time will tell.

Google Carl Crawford's quotes following that deal and it might make more sense. They decided Young had to get out of town.

[allstar1579]

FWIW, he was on the 2007 Rays that won only 66 games, worse than these Os. In 130 innings as a rookie he pitched to a 1.36 WHIP on a terrible defensive team. Not all-star, but much better than Garrett Olson's 1.7 WHIP in 132 innings this year (his second year with MLB experience). I don't want to over-rate the guy, but to compare him to Olson or Penn just isn't backed up.

I was comparing their minor league stats, which are actually very similar, it's a whole different world when you get to the majors, and many prospects have been amazing at AAA and then bombed in the majors.

That being said, if you are going to point out his 1.36 WHIP you also have to note his 5.85 ERA, and giving up 151 hits in 130 innings. So he's had one decent year, and one year of being shelled, and people are ready to trade Reimold, Sherrill and others for him?

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, but Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson had great minor league numbers too, but on our team in the majors you see what happened. The Rays this year are much better geared to the success of a young pitcher with good defense and a great hitting lineup.

You are right, his peripherals are good, but put him on our team last year and do you think the stats end up like they did? It's the chicken or the egg argument, but a valued one. Did he have the stats he had because he played on that team on that field? Or did he have those stats regardless and he would have done the same for us? In my experience, it's about 65/35 that a guy is a product of a great environment and 35% that he can put up identical stats for different teams. Those 35% are the great pitchers, but there are different factors, comfortableness, happiness, team, day/night splits, home/away splits and those can all change drastically from one team to the next.

I have no reason to think his walks and K's would be any worse here.

His HRs would be higher in OPACY IMO.

But, he also may not have had as bad a BABIP because he wouldn't be on turf.

And by your other reason(comfortableness, happiness, etc...) we mine as well never bring in any other player from anywhere because we don't know how they are going to react.

[Sports Guy]

I know we're going around in circles, but this just isn't true. He isn't a good pitcher and he gets hit very, very hard. This year is likely his absolute ceiling. #4/5 starter. The odds of him repeating this are much worse than the odds of him regressing. If TAM can get someone to give up anything of value for him, they'd be wise to jump at it.

There isn't one bit of truth in any of this...if you think a 4.25ish ERA is a 4/5 starter, you are stuck in the old days of baseball.

If you don't think he is a good pitcher, then I question your ability to judge a player.