Trade Central Station

[GeorgiaBird]

I was comparing their minor league stats, which are actually very similar, it's a whole different world when you get to the majors, and many prospects have been amazing at AAA and then bombed in the majors.

That being said, if you are going to point out his 1.36 WHIP you also have to note his 5.85 ERA, and giving up 151 hits in 130 innings. So he's had one decent year, and one year of being shelled, and people are ready to trade Reimold, Sherrill and others for him?

Well, what you said was

his peripherals are good, but put him on our team last year and do you think the stats end up like they did?

and I was simply pointing out that he was on a team like ours, and he out performed the people you are comparing him too.

I think this is much ado about nothing, a 12 page thread focusing on someone who is not on the block. I personally do think a guy who maxes out as a back of the rotation starter who can keep his pitch count down, keep you in games and eat up innings is worth more than Reimold and Sherrill combined, but I really doubt we will have a chance to find out.

[Singleton]

You're buying into a general truism (bb/k rate being an indicator of success) without looking at the whole picture (a super-low walk rate will throw off that stat as a predictive tool if hits are inflated to make up for the walks).

Here's another example: Let's say I set up a pitching machine on the mound that changes speed from 75 to 85 to 95 MPH without tipping off the batter. I am guaranteeing that the batting machine walks no one and the odds are I'll strike out some based on the ability to change speeds, alone. Would you wager that the pitching machine could then be an effective ML starter?

It's an extreme example but its purpose is to set a floor. Sonnanstine is better than a pitching machine. He locates fairly well in the zone in addition to throwing strikes and he gets okay action on his curve. He has no action on his fastball and his changeup, and the difference in velocity isn't killer. He's around the plate and when batters hit the ball they hit it hard more often than they do against someone with better stuff because it just isn't that difficult with a mid-80s fastball and an average breaking ball.

Step away from the BB/K rate a little, or dig into it deeper because you can't generally apply it to every type of pitcher. It isn't necessarily a good predictive measure for a pitcher like Sonnanstine.

Dig into it deeper? You're flooded with posts from all sides giving you detailed analysis of why Sonnanstine has a good chance to be a good starting pitcher for a long tme. You make up some strange analogy to a pitching machine and you ask me (us) to dig deeper?

First off, you make it sound like Sonnanstine's rolling the ball up there and every hitter crushes line drives that happen to be caught. Last year he struck out 5.78 per 9 innings. That's actually not bad.

Here's some digging for you -- putting a low walk rate aside -- Sonnanstine stuck out more per nine last year than Mike Mussina did in his first full year in the bigs and more than Roy Halladay did in his first year. He has almost the exact same rate as M. Buehrle does currently and is just a little lower than baltimore boy and OH lust focus Gavin Floyd.

The only evidence you offer is that he doesn't light up a radar gun. Fine. That point can't be argued. I'll take a pitcher like Sonnanstine over the guy who throws in the mid 90s but offers lots of walks (DCab anyone?) every time and so will almost any well run major league team.

[Stotle]

There isn't one bit of truth in any of this...if you think a 4.25ish ERA is a 4/5 starter, you are stuck in the old days of baseball.

If you don't think he is a good pitcher, then I question your ability to judge a player.

You can question it all you want. He's a back-ender.

[Sports Guy]

All I really had to hear was Stotle saying David Hernandez is a better piece(more valuable?...whatever way it was worded) than Sonnanstine.

That is just flat out absurd and has no basis on reality.

BTW, so far in his career, AS misses bats at around the league(i think slightly below...1970, clear that up?) ....For someone with bad stuff, that isn't too bad.

He knows how to pitch.

[Sports Guy]

You can question it all you want. He's a back-ender.

Again, there isn't one shread of evidence to back this up.

And guess what, I would take a 4.5-4.7 ERA, 200 IP pitcher who is 26 years old and making no money over David Hernandez and a 31 year old OFer who struggled vs lefties and will give you an 830ish OPS...I like Scott but Reimold + Sonnanstine blows away Scott + Hernandez and I doubt you find anyone, outside of yourself, to disagree with that.

[allstar1579]

If you can draft a Sonnanstine every year in the 3rd or 4th round, AM needs to hire you immediately. We could go over the O's 3rd and 4th round draft picks over the years and we'll see that many of these picks never even sniffed the majors let alone produced at the level Sonnanstine has already achieved.

Sonnanstine's thrown over 300 major league innings. I'd be curious if you can name a few pitchers who posted a k/bb ratio of over 3 in their first 2 years who soon became poor starting pitchers (not due to injuries). Again, k/bb ratio is a very strong predictor.

It's great when an "expert" says a minor leaguer is going to be a #1 starter and not as swell when they say he's a "back of the rotation starter." The fact is, at some point, results on the field matter more than what someone says.

Obviously, Sonnanstine is not a sure thing. Who is? But getting back to the original point of the thread, if even a few teams are as strong on him as many of us on this board (and it's a good bet), then TB will be able to get back more than you offer.

2004 - 3rd round Wade Davis

2004 - 4th round Ross Ohlendorf

2004- 5th round Jake McGee

2005 - 3rd round Micah Owings

2005 - 3rd round Brandon Erbe

2005 - 4th round Brian Matusz

2007 - 5th round Jake Arrieta

Yes, they are found every year. If you believe anyone can be "projected" to be a #1 you are mistaken. Yes pitchers can have the raw stuff to be that guy, but there is so much more to being an Ace that they have to prove as they do it.

Having a strong K/BB ratio doesn't help when you are giving up more hits than innings pitched. That skews the numbers. Another pitcher will have a 2:1 K:BB but only give up a hit in 75% of their innings and have the same ERA.

Yes he had a good year this year, but the team went to the WS, it's pretty easy to have a better than usual year in that regard, but last year, not so much, it's too early to be putting this guy at the trade value of say Guthrie who has had 2 straight years with more consistent numbers.

[GeorgiaBird]

You can question it all you want. He's a back-ender.

This is just semantics. Give me 5 good starters who compliment each other. I think a Sonnanstine-type is a good fit in a lot of rotations, I don't care if you call him #1 or #5. I think I would take my chances with 5 Sonnanstines in a rotation vs. the 2008 Os rotation. And isn't that what matters?

Complimentary, by the way, is one of the reasons I don't expect him to be traded. Going into 2009 the Rays have Kaz, who is becoming Erik Bedard-like in his ability to go deep, and they don't believe/don't want David Price going deep. Garza is all over the place, and Shields is an innings eater. I think given the other four they would rather a Sonnanstine than say, a certain 6-9 guy who has some amazing stuff at times but can be all over the place from start to start and during his starts. Sure the ceiling is not as high, but the overall value to the ball club is deemed to be more.

[allstar1579]

Again, there isn't one shread of evidence to back this up.

And guess what, I would take a 4.5-4.7 ERA, 200 IP pitcher who is 26 years old and making no money over David Hernandez and a 31 year old OFer who struggled vs lefties and will give you an 830ish OPS...I like Scott but Reimold + Sonnanstine blows away Scott + Hernandez and I doubt you find anyone, outside of yourself, to disagree with that.

Wait, so your idea of going after AS from the beginning is he is younger and cheaper than FA options, and still has some possible upside, yet you are willing to give away a guy that could possibly give you the same numbers without even giving him a shot? And to make sure you get it, you are willing to trade a 31 year old OF that was a significant part of our offense as a throw in?

It's too early to say Sonnanstine blows away Hernandez because DH has never pitched in the majors, and if we are not competing next year anyway, where is the harm in finding out what we have? There is as good of a chance that DH continues to improve and has a great year elevating his status as the chance Sonnanstine doesn't regress to numbers closer to his 2007 year. Not to mention as I said earlier, AS on our team will not come close to the numbers he put up on a WS team.

[GeorgiaBird]

Whether or not Sonnanstine is Cy Young or Dave Johnson, could someone explain to me why Tampa would be interested in giving up talent for Luke Scott instead of just resigning Erik Hinske if they are looking for that sort of a player?

[Sports Guy]

2004 - 3rd round Wade Davis

2004 - 4th round Ross Ohlendorf

2004- 5th round Jake McGee

2005 - 3rd round Micah Owings

2005 - 3rd round Brandon Erbe

2005 - 4th round Brian Matusz

2007 - 5th round Jake Arrieta

Yes, they are found every year. If you believe anyone can be "projected" to be a #1 you are mistaken. Yes pitchers can have the raw stuff to be that guy, but there is so much more to being an Ace that they have to prove as they do it.

Having a strong K/BB ratio doesn't help when you are giving up more hits than innings pitched. That skews the numbers. Another pitcher will have a 2:1 K:BB but only give up a hit in 75% of their innings and have the same ERA.

Yes he had a good year this year, but the team went to the WS, it's pretty easy to have a better than usual year in that regard, but last year, not so much, it's too early to be putting this guy at the trade value of say Guthrie who has had 2 straight years with more consistent numbers.

Should we list the first rounders that AS has already embarrased?

How about we get rid of Wieters because you can get a HOF catcher in the 66th round(Piazza)?

[Mackus]

Sonnanstein is being overrated a bit in this thread IMO but still, Scott and Hernandez for him is a no brainer.

Right now we need cheap stabillity in our rotation and Sonnanstein is perfect for that. Even if he is a #3 or #4, he would do wonders for the O's since we have 1 #2 and the rest barely #5's.

Reimold replaces Scott and is cheaper as Scott gets into his arb. years. I like Scott but if you can do that for Sonnanstein it is a no brainer.

I would rather trade tham Reimold than Scott but there are benefits to each side and I would guess that the Rays would want Scott over Reimold.

Sonnanstine

[Sports Guy]

Wait, so your idea of going after AS from the beginning is he is younger and cheaper than FA options, and still has some possible upside, yet you are willing to give away a guy that could possibly give you the same numbers without even giving him a shot? And to make sure you get it, you are willing to trade a 31 year old OF that was a significant part of our offense as a throw in?

I have zero confidence that DH will make it a starter, so that kills that part of your argument IMO.

Secondly, i want Sonnanstine because he gives us stability in the middle of the rotation, is young, is cheap and won't cost us a 4-5 year contract at 50+ million a year, which is what pitchers like him are going for.

Scott can be replaced by Reimold, so no biggie.

Again, Sonnanstine + Reimold >>>>>>> D Hernandez + Scott

It's too early to say Sonnanstine blows away Hernandez because DH has never pitched in the majors

LOL...This is just amazing especially with your arguments of needing to see mutliple years, comfortableness, etc...There is absolutely no doubt that Sonnanstine is already successful...he was better in the minors than DH and is a much better pitcher..DH may have better stuff but it is tough to find scouts that think he will last as a starter.

and if we are not competing next year anyway, where is the harm in finding out what we have?

huh? Who said anything about this? This has NOTHING to do with any of this. If DH is still here come ST, i think he should be in the pen on OD.

There is as good of a chance that DH continues to improve and has a great year elevating his status as the chance Sonnanstine doesn't regress to numbers closer to his 2007 year

LOL...Why is there as good a chance? BEcause you want it to happen? Again, there isn't one shred of evidence or reality that says this is true.

Not to mention as I said earlier, AS on our team will not come close to the numbers he put up on a WS team.

If you are going to talk about wins and homers allowed, I agree...Other than that, again, no basis for this being true.

You are just pulling stuff out of the air...Come back to me when you have something more substantial.

[tywright]

Good back round info on Sonnastine and his "underwhelming stuff:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8259

Though he had good command of his pitches, his fastball topped out around 90 mph, and his draft stock reflected that; Tampa Bay selected the 21-year-old right-hander in the 13th of the 2004 amateur entry draft, and then sent him to Hudson Valley in the New York-Penn League. He would throw just 27 innings there over six relief appearances and a pair of starts, but he impressed with 24 punchouts against just three free passes. He was promoted to the Sally League, where he would outdo himself, whiffing 42 batters over 31 innings against just seven walks. All told, 66 strikeouts against 10 walks (6.6 K/BB) isn't too shabby as debuts go, but it wasn't enough to grab the attention of Baseball America, and he would not appear on the organizational prospect lists before the 2005 season. Baseball Prospectus 2005 liked Sonnanstine though, saying:

Sonnanstine was an outstanding pitcher at Kent State, despite a fastball that only registered around 90; it has sink to it, and when he keeps both the fastball and slider down in the zone he's tough to hit. He makes it even harder on hitters by changing arm angles on them, varying his release point while maintaining excellent control. Sonnanstine had a very good run through the NCAA playoffs, slid to Tampa in the 13th round, and just kept rolling through the New York-Penn and Sally leagues. A better test awaits in the Cal League.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/21/434265/evaluating-andy-sonnanstin

Perhaps most interestingly, Sonnanstine seems to have Fausto Carmona syndrome: Sonnanstine gets drastically different results depending on whether the first pitch of an at-bat is a ball or a strike. Last season, if the first pitch was a strike, batters hit .241/.254./.392 off of him. However, if the first pitch was a ball, opposing hitters mashed to a tune of .335/.404/.606. Although Sonnanstine was very good at throwing strikes (he threw 66% of his pitches for strikes last year), he did not throw as many first-pitch strikes – only 60% of batters received a first-pitch strike. Considering how important Strike One is for Sonnanstine – and how good he is at throwing strikes in general – this an area in which we can expect improvement.

To sum up: Sonnanstine’s peripherals belied his 5.85 ERA from last year. He suffered from a terrible defense behind him, gave and gave us a largely disproportionate amount of hits with runners on base (even though he had not shown any decreased ability with runners on base in the minors). Finally, he was a tremendously better pitcher if he threw his first pitch for a strike – something he did less often than we can expect in the future, considering how much of a strike-thrower he is.

IMO, Sonnastine is a 3/4 type pitcher. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but he knows how to maximize it and has great control. He's the type of pitcher we need on our staff because of his consistency and command. And yes he's more valuable than a 2 pitch pitcher with limited control in David Hernandez.

[Stotle]

Again, there isn't one shread of evidence to back this up.

And guess what, I would take a 4.5-4.7 ERA, 200 IP pitcher who is 26 years old and making no money over David Hernandez and a 31 year old OFer who struggled vs lefties and will give you an 830ish OPS...I like Scott but Reimold + Sonnanstine blows away Scott + Hernandez and I doubt you find anyone, outside of yourself, to disagree with that.

Okay. I guess that's why I'm not in the front office somewhere. As I've stated, I'm happy to let this one play out. Just like Khalil Greene.

Your last sentence is a little off, though (and I don't know where the Reimold/Sonnanstine vs. Scott/Hernandez comparison is coming from). I spoke with a college pitching scout that completely agrees with me re: Sonnanstine. So there is at least one other person that is moderately informed that agrees with me. I can't vouch for the rest of yas, though I take you at your word that me and this scout are on an island, here.

[Mackus]

IMO, Sonnastine is a 3/4 type pitcher. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but he knows how to maximize it and has great control. He's the type of pitcher we need on our staff because of his consistency and command. And yes he's more valuable than a 2 pitch pitcher with limited control in David Hernandez.

I think Sonnanstine is a solid #4 type guy. He'll pitch a decent number of innings to ERAs in the mid 4's most years, is my guess. Plus he's inexpensive. I do think he's certainly more valuable than David Hernandez, although he is undoubtedly less valuable than David Hernandez' upside. The catch is Hernandez is a fairly long shot to reach that upside.

Scott and Hernandez for Sonnanstine is something I'd consider. I wouldn't do Scott and Sherrill though.