Trade Central Station

[Stotle]

You said in an earlier post that it would be easy to pick a pitcher like Sonnanstine in the 3rd or 4th round every year. I do think this is an abusrd notion since we have huge amounts of data that show that most teams can't consistently (key word) get a major leaguer at that point in the draft let alone someone who has a good year with a promising future. If you can show me a team that has consistently drafted a 3rd rounder that produces like this then you will convince me that it is not an overly bold statement. You haven't offered anything like this so....

I also think his stats pretty clearly show him to be a "capable major league starter." If winning 13 games or so with an ERA in the low 4's and a k/bb ratio of over 3 isn't "capable" then someone bring the O's some incapable pitchers please.

Perhaps I don't understand drafting and player development at your level but it sure seems like Tampa Bay does given their World Series appearance and pipeline of talent and they seem to like this scrub pitcher

More seriously, I don't really think calling the notion absurd is a personal attack but I really did not mean to offend you and if I did, please accept my apology.

I'll drop the subject.

Just pointing out that Sonnanstine's particular skill set isn't hard to find. His unique attribute is control. Control guys with fringy-stuff aren't hard to find, though it's rare one reaches his highest projection (which is what Sonnanstine is doing). The Rays could draft Sonnanstine twenty times and never again get the production they've gotten out of him so far. That's buying high with no room for growth. That was my only point.

No need for for apologies -- I just think when we start calling each other crazy or absurd (and I've probably done it) we start hinting at credibility, which isn't really a fair thing to do on an anonymous board. Don't bow out on my account -- you have some thoughts worth sharing and contributing to he convo.

[Stotle]

You know that K/BB ratio you guys always whine about on here? The one that supposedly measures how much success a pitcher will have and that the elite pitchers generally have ratios above 4?

Andy Sonnanstine's minor league numbers include: 38-18 record, 2.71 era, and a K/BB ratio of 6.19.

Also, his ERA dropped 1.47 points from his rookie season to this past year, he pitched in 10 more starts (32) and had just 37 walks in 193.1 IP. His major league K/BB ratio is a highly respectable 3.51.

Just some facts for ya.

It doesn't concern you that his 37 walks in 193+ innings still contributed to a WHIP just below 1.30? That's a very hittable pitcher. Facts are great, but context and completeness shouldn't be taken for granted either.

He's definitely a great control guy. No argument there.

[Sports Guy]

Why can't Andy Sonnanstine be this guy?

I think this is his best comp.

[Stotle]

Its my description of a #3 within a season.

If you've got a guy that is consistently in the top-30, then they are a consistent #3 over many years, which is important. If they end up moreso as a consistent top 45-50 guy, then they are a #4 (where I think what Sonnanstine ends up being).

Okay, understood. But to be clear that's assigning a label to characterize past production, rather than as a predictive tool.

[Intimidator301]

Its kind of pointless to argue whether or not Sonnanstine is a # 4 or 5 or whatver. The bottom line is he'd make us better. I'd rather have him be our #3 then DCab.

The simple truth is, he'd be our #2 if he was an Oriole as things stand right now.

1. Burnett

2. Guthrie

3. Wolf

4. Sonnanstine

5. Olson

I'd gladly take that over the barely AAA staff we threw out there last year.

Just ridding ourselves of DCab and Burres makes us better.

[Sports Guy]

Okay, understood. But to be clear that's assigning a label to characterize past production, rather than as a predictive tool.

All predictive measures say Sonnanstine will be even better going forward.

[Stotle]

Why can't Andy Sonnanstine be this guy?

I think this is his best comp.

Radke had a plus-changeup and some more movement on his fastball. Sonnanstine doesn't have the differential required to keep hitters off-balance to the same extent.

[Stotle]

All predictive measures say Sonnanstine will be even better going forward.

As I said, I'm happy to let that one play out. And when he does even better next year, I add him to my list of guys I was wrong about.

[Sports Guy]

Radke had a plus-changeup and some more movement on his fastball. Sonnanstine doesn't have the differential required to keep hitters off-balance to the same extent.

Well according to the reports that Tywright showed, Sonny should have plenty of movement and control to keep hitters off balance.

[Stotle]

Its kind of pointless to argue whether or not Sonnanstine is a # 4 or 5 or whatver. The bottom line is he'd make us better. I'd rather have him be our #3 then DCab.

The simple truth is, he'd be our #2 if he was an Oriole as things stand right now.

1. Burnett

2. Guthrie

3. Wolf

4. Sonnanstine

5. Olson

I'd gladly take that over the barely AAA staff we threw out there last year.

Just ridding ourselves of DCab and Burres makes us better.

Yeah, it's all really a mental exercise. The question is one of valuation, and whether or not you trade something of value for Sonnanstine. I don't disagree for one minute that Sonnanstine would be one of BAL's best five starters on last year's staff. That is more an indictment on BAL's staff than a ringing endorsement for Sonnanstine. You should be able to fill your staff with Sonnanstine-like production without giving up a power arm like Hernandez. If TAM would take a platoon OF/DH like Scott for Sonnanstine, I have no problem with it.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, it's all really a mental exercise. The question is one of valuation, and whether or not you trade something of value for Sonnanstine. I don't disagree for one minute that Sonnanstine would be one of BAL's best five starters on last year's staff. That is more an indictment on BAL's staff than a ringing endorsement for Sonnanstine. You should be able to fill your staff with Sonnanstine-like production without giving up a power arm like Hernandez. If TAM would take a platoon OF/DH like Scott for Sonnanstine, I have no problem with it.

Its much easier to find guys like David Hernandez than Sonnanstine.

I am not sure how you can even dispute that.

Sonnanstine, as mackus showed, was one of the best 40 pitchers this year.

David Hernandez is a pitcher that every organization has a few of. Guys with very little command, an inability go deep into games and a likely future BP arm, if he even makes it.

Sorry, DH is clearly more dime a dozen than AS is.

[Stotle]

Well according to the reports that Tywright showed, Sonny should have plenty of movement and control to keep hitters off balance.

Yes....college hitters and low-minors hitters. I wouldn't read into a draft scouting report from BP as evidence he has movement to give MLers trouble. If that were the case he'd of gone in the top 5 rounds easy.

[Stotle]

Its much easier to find guys like David Hernandez than Sonnanstine.

I am not sure how you can even dispute that.

Sonnanstine, as mackus showed, was one of the best 40 pitchers this year.

David Hernandez is a pitcher that every organization has a few of. Guys with very little command, an inability go deep into games and a likely future BP arm, if he even makes it.

Sorry, DH is clearly more dime a dozen than AS is.

Then you should be able to come up with a huge list of pitchers that lead the Carolina League and Eastern league in strikeouts back-to-back years, right?

[Sports Guy]

Then you should be able to come up with a huge list of pitchers that lead the Carolina League and Eastern league in strikeouts back-to-back years, right?

The K's are nice and why I like his BP upside...if you can't go deep into games in the minors, you won't in the majors....if you can't command your pitches against single and double a hitters, you can't in the majors and there really isn't much of a sign that is going to change.

I think DH has the potential to be a big time arm out of the pen but that's about it.

I doubt you would find a GM in baseball who would say DH is worth more than Sonnanstine is.

[Stotle]

I didn't want to resort to stats, mainly because I think they are being incorrectly applied here, but I'm giving in. The argument has been made that Sonnanstine is better/more valuable than Guthrie.

VORP for all pitchers in ML this year:

Guthrie - 39.9 (Rank 31 among all ML pitchers)

Sonnanstine - 19.1 (Rank 112 among all ML pitchers)

If you shrink the list to include only pitchers with 125+ IP, Guthrie stays at 31 and Sonnanstine jumps to 72. So, the good news is there were only 40 pitchers with under 125 IP more valuable than Sonnanstine this year.

Again I say, this is not a good pitcher and it is not a mid-rotation pitcher. He's adequate filler for the back of a rotation.