Passan: Mullins, Mancini central to Orioles plans - will need overpay to pry

[Sports Guy]

If you were using Os prospects as a baseline, what would you expect to get for Mancini?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

I guess ultimately what I meant is he is gone before the O’s are competitive again. Whether it’s by trade or free agency he is not a player you build around. I do think he’ll be traded and I think it’ll be for a lot less than what we all are hoping for but it would be very surprising to see Mancini on the next playoff roster. 

I agree with other posters that Mancini will be traded, but only for a trade package that is acceptable to Elias. It's very possible Mancini stays with the Orioles until he hits free agency, and then Mancini won't be resigned to a multi-year contract. 

I don't see Mancini sticking around getting paid free agent money when his primary value is being a 1B/DH and will be in his early thirties by that time. 

[Philip]

The question to ask is what does Mancini offer that they can’t get somewhere else, and I think the answer to that determines the return.

He hits well, he’s slow, he is a terrible right fielder but an above average first baseman, and he has value. But he doesn’t have a huge amount of value, and the idea of extending him is ludicrous, especially when we already have at least two 1B/DH types with which to replace him, each of whom is pre-arb.

I wonder if we can glean anything from the Villar situation, Where Mike obviously wanted to trade Villar But was unable to. Villar isn’t at all the player that Trey is, And he had much less value, but I just wonder if Mike had the price too high, and if he will have the price too high now as well.

[eddie83]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you were using Os prospects as a baseline, what would you expect to get for Mancini?

We got Vavra, Nevins and an Int player for Givens. 
 

I would start at Vavra and Bradish. I would start there. Would have to be another player. Or someone higher ranked than first 2. 
 

Westburg could highlight a deal. 

[Explosivo]

Smart move to wait for a big time deal for Mancini. I am fine either way with him staying or going. I’d like for him to stay and be rewarded with the years of success we will have but I also believe you trade for players at their highest value. I feel that may be now, though I would be very sad to see him go. We better be blown away by the deal if it happens.

[Just Regular]

I believe this is what they call...negotiating through the media.

Even more than the College v. High School thing with 1-5 a week from Sunday, Mancini (or the texture of the Mancini return) is the indicator that tells me Elias' 2022 assessment.    I still feel our 10 best players are good enough with something like the Royals previous offseason that the 2022 Orioles could enter next year a bit like the 2021 Royals.

If July 31, Gunnar has in the draft pick and Mancini centerpiece a couple of co-prospects younger than him and about as good as him, that's when I'll hit the snooze button on 2022.   If we have Mancini and Davis/Rocker, I probably won't be happier than John Means and Cedric Mullins, but I am rooting for that.

Hopefully by then, Hall back on the mound, but for me the burden of proof is always on the Hurt Pitcher...that's I think the worst thing that's happened this year so far.   Its only been 528 game pitches after 1.75 years of not pitching and...

 

[baltimoreO's22]

Mancini is a fine player, good at the plate and below average in the field. You pretty much limit your trade options to AL teams, if you are looking for a good package. I wonder if this is one of those situations where the O's value Mancini more than the teams who are calling? 

If he isn't traded, I would offer him a 3 year extension in the 12-13M AAV range, and hope to have him be a team leader during the "competitive years." 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Mancini is a fine player, good at the plate and below average in the field. You pretty much limit your trade options to AL teams, if you are looking for a good package. I wonder if this is one of those situations where the O's value Mancini more than the teams who are calling? 

If he isn't traded, I would offer him a 3 year extension in the 12-13M AAV range, and hope to have him be a team leader during the "competitive years." 

He isn't a below average defensive first baseman.  

An NL team looking for a first baseman could easily look to add him.

[baltimoreO's22]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He isn't a below average defensive first baseman.  

An NL team looking for a first baseman could easily look to add him.

Yes he is by any advanced metrics you look at. He's not a horrible defender, but he is for sure below average. 

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He isn't a below average defensive first baseman.  

An NL team looking for a first baseman could easily look to add him.

You like to put out facts as part of your discussion MO.

Facts provide us the evidence that now matter how much we like Trey, he is what he is, a below average 1B at the position.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Yes he is by any advanced metrics you look at. He's not a horrible defender, but he is for sure below average. 

Really?  UZR and UZR/150 have him as average to slightly above average in 2019 and 2021.  What advanced metrics have him below average?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You like to put out facts as part of your discussion MO.

Facts provide us the evidence that now matter how much we like Trey, he is what he is, a below average 1B at the position.

 

You know a fact isn't your eye test, right?

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You know a fact isn't your eye test, right?

You are a troll, you know that.

What is his dWAR at first.

How is his range?

His Rdrs is a -3 at 1st.

His Rtot is also a -2 at 1st.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You are a troll, you know that.

What is his dWAR at first.

How is his range?

His Rdrs is a -3 at 1st.

His Rtot is also a -2 at 1st.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=show

 

Baseball savant has him basically at average.  Not hurting you type thing.  UZR/UZR150 has him average to above average.

 

The stats you provided say is worth 2 or 3 runs less than the average first baseman.  10 runs is 1 win.  So, when you take all of the data, you basically get an average first baseman.  A guy who isn't hurting your team with the glove.  Personally, my eye test says the same thing.  I don't think he is anything special over there but I don't think he is hurting you either and any team looking for a first baseman would certainly be fine with him over there.  Hell, I think teams would be ok giving him time in the OF and he is worse out there.

And if making your arguments look poor means I'm troll, so be it.  Stop posting dis-information, interpreting it incorrectly and presenting it as fact and maybe I wouldn't "troll" you.

[baltimoreO's22]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Really?  UZR and UZR/150 have him as average to slightly above average in 2019 and 2021.  What advanced metrics have him below average?

UZR has him at .2 so yeah that's not below average, but he has a negative grade in the  dWAR, DRS, rPM and his RZR indicates hes between poor and awful so maybe not by all metrics is he below average but he is below average in a majority of them. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by baltimoreO's22