O's respectful next year.

[interloper]

Were they overly rude this year or something?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Were they overly rude this year or something?

To the fans certainly. 

[TonySoprano]

 

[jcaponio]

13 hours ago, milbest77 said:

Respectable as in being the second-worst team maybe.

We’re already the second worst!

[fitzi22]

Respectable? Respectable would a .500 team and I don’t think we will be there yet.  Elias is slow rolling this.  Adley, Hall, Rodriguez will all be rookies next year (hopefully) and typically even great rookies have meh seasons.  I expect the O’s to be about as good as last year (.417 or about 67 wins).  2023 is a year we might actually be respectable depending on who the O’s keep or trade(Means, Mancini) and the AL east (Yankees realize they are old and over paid, Tampa trades away all their good players for twice as many good younger players, Boston is going through one of their first or last place seasons, and Toronto freaks out when they realize they have to pay all these great young players they have).  2023 has been circled on most of calendars for awhile  as the first best chance we have of ending this painful 5 year stretch of really bad baseball

[foxfield]

On 7/6/2021 at 8:15 AM, oriolediehard said:

I think the O's will be respectful next year, around a .500 team next year. Their prospects will be ready. I do hope they can keep Mancini and Means to be leaders on a young team.

 

On 7/6/2021 at 2:52 PM, spiritof66 said:

I don't know who will be on next year's Orioles team, let alone how good that team will be. But here are a few reasons I'm not optimistic about seeing a .500-ish Oriole team in 2022.

• I'm not sure the best young pitchers or Rutschman will be brought up for much of 2022, and if they are there is no guarantee that any of them will be successful major leaguers, let alone stars who can help turn the team around. (And there's no guarantee that they will get through most of the season without injuries.) More to the point of immediate impact, even if most or all of them turn out to be the real thing, they may not be successful shortly after arriving in the major leagues. A lot of very good, even great, players take half a season or much longer to become useful. I think that's especially likely to be true of young Oriole pitchers, whose self-confidence easily can be undermined when they see what look like fly balls, even those hit off good pitches, dropping into the stands at Camden Yards. Finally, as someone mentioned in this string, there likely will be innings/pitch limits on those young arms, making it very likely that we'll see lots of the holdover pitchers (as a staff, currently last in MLB in ERA and tied for last in WHIP) throwing a substantial number of innings in 2022.
   
• Games within the division, which make up 47 percent of each team's games unless there are changes made in the off-season, will be challenging. I expect the AL East's strong young teams, the Red Sox and Jays, to continue to improve next year and the Rays to remain good. The NYYs have to get better in 2022 or their Bronx mausoleum may be incinerated by an angry mob. Too bad we don't get to play 19 games against the weak-sister Orioles. And whether interleague games will still be against the NL East or rotate to another division, the Orioles' NL opponents probably will be stronger than those in this year's NL East, which is having a down year. Assuming MLB's overall scheduling setup isn't altered, I expect the Orioles' opponents next year to be more challenging.
   
• I don't have a strong opinion about Elias. I've assumed he's competent, based on his record before coming to Baltimore, and I still do. On paper, he was a better hire than I expected the Orioles would be able to make, and he is highly presentable. But he seems to think at times he's back in Houston. And this ain't Houston. Building and running a successful team in this market requires something more -- some creativity, new ideas, a better mousetrap or at least better parts of the existing mousetrap, an ability (whether through different/better analytics, a different approach, or skilled scouting) to identify useful players who are bargains -- to overcome the advantages in resources that NY, Boston and Toronto have and always will have. It requires taking some chances, admitting and correcting your mistakes, and reversing course if circumstances change. The Rays have been able to compete, at times, by doing things like that. I haven't seen any of these things from Elias. Doesn't mean they're not there, but if they are I haven't seen them. Improving this team significantly in the next couple years will take more than piling up talent from very high draft choices and orchestrating their promotions to the Orioles so they're under team control at the same time.
  
  Elias presumably realized when he arrived that this isn't Houston in terms of money for free agents or international talent becoming  available for the next few years, but my guess is that he hoped things would progress more quickly than they have. He may still be finding out just how parsimonious the Angeloses are and how slow the Baltimore process will be -- and how little he can do to improve things, like bringing in a capable catcher, now. So he says the only thing he really can say: "Be patient." That doesn't sound like a guy who's planning to give us a quality team next year.
   
• Sure, you can argue that the Orioles will be respectable next year, since there are so many unknowns. But one thing the owners' sons have not been so far is respectful -- of the franchise, the fans, or the game. While placed in a situation that made it impossible to field a contending or even a decent team in recent years, including this season, the owner's sons have chosen not to try, and to stuff a few million extra dollars in their pockets rather than spending to put a more watchable, nearer-to-mediocre team on the field. Elias seems just fine with that. There's been very little effort, and virtually no money spent, to field a team that is talented or fundamentally sound or interesting to watch or fun. Nobody in the organization seems to care about the effect on the dwindling fan base, on ticket sales, on the reputation of the franchise, or on MLB generally.
  
  I'm reluctant to pick on a single marginal Oriole player not named Lew Ford, but what is the thought process behind keeping Pedro Severino as the team's regular catcher when he doesn't hit much, can't catch or tag, and can't throw (15 % caught stealing)? Pedro's defensive ineptness has been criticized by both Oriole announcers who know the game with an intensity I've never heard from any team's announcers. Yet the Orioles have stuck with him. The only reason I can fathom is a reluctance to spend anything to try to improve this year's team. That attitude not only creates a ballclub that isn't respectable, but also shows disrespect for the team's fans, the franchise and the game.
   
• There's always hope, but I don't see any reason why the Orioles' "What, me worry?" attitude should change much for next year, especially when uncertainty about the collective bargaining agreement will present a convenient excuse for delaying, limiting and avoiding decisions and spending on the team's payroll. If a team won't invest more than the bare minimum in payroll to try to improve from 50 wins to, say, 60 or 65, why should it act much differently next year in an effort to get to 75? It's still going to be a non-contending team that will fall back in the draft order if it wins more games. I think it's more likely we'll hear about continued spending to sign young international free agents -- pennies in the overall scheme of things -- and on continuing to improve the Latin American, scouting, player development and analytics infrastructures (none of which we'll ever know the price tags on).
  
  Here's an example. Suppose the Orioles consider pursuing one of the elite shortstops who may be available free agents, and the bidding is a bit below the Machado/Arenado territory, $25 million per year for eight years; it could be much higher. The Angeloses ask Elias, "Why spend this money now, just to have a really good shortstop on a crappy team for a couple of years? When you have a guy who will help us to win 90 or 95 games, let us know." The same logic would apply to lesser free agents to shore up the infield -- if there are any -- in the $10 million  range. I expect any free agents who take the field for the 2022 Orioles to be of the Iglesias/Galvis/God-I-hope-not-Franco variety, guys who might be an upgrade from Valaika but won't move the needle much.
   
• I continue to think it's likely that the team will be put up for sale after Peter Angelos's death because the other MLB owners and/or the Angeloses themselves will realize that, after estate and inheritance taxes (and the Angelos Law Firm gravy train apparently going the way of the City of New Orleans line), the Angelos sons won't have the financial resources to compete in Baltimore, or to weather another economic downturn like the one that hit in 2020. If that's right, I expect the Angeloses will be loathe to spend much or to take on significant long-term salary burdens.  

I hope I'm wrong about all of this. I hope that Hays and Santander and Mountcastle improve their offense, Mullins keeps on rolling, Rutschman lives up to expectations, the team finds some above-replacement infielders who play strong defense, the rotation improves with a healthy Means, the addition of Wells and some promotions, and a bullpen of Sulser/Tate/Scott/Fry/whoever becomes reliable. That looks to me like a .500 team, and it's a very  long wish list to get there.

 

The original post is a great start.  Spirit of 66 gives the sobering reality to how far the team has actually been deconstructed from 2017 and how far it is from being competitive in 2022.   I too assume Elias is competent, but judging today seems premature, especially when it is clear we don't know what Ownership views/wants from the rebuild.

There is so much going on that is impacting the job that Elias has.  Covid has impacted the development but it has for all teams.  The impending CBA is a wrinkle that has also been discussed here.  And probably have more to do with starting some clocks as anything else.  But the health of Peter Angelos is tremendous and I dont know if Elias can effectively do much about it. 

Our talent pool is improving.  Elias has said he is focusing on talent and not the Major League record.  I really do not see how next year isn't the first year that the record does in fact matter.  That said, that doesn't mean we will win 82 games, because that would be a huge step forward.  I think next year will not include a lineup of place holders who likely would not play at the MLB level for anyone else.

Are we at the bottom?  I think we are.  2nd worst record, top 5 pick this weekend, and another top pick next year, a fanbase that is nearing nonexistence, and growing disdain from the ones that remain.  But there are good signs coming... potential ROY, a comeback player of the year, a breakout season from Cedric Mullins, International signings and several names in the top 100 prospects lists.  

So next year should mean that wins matter.  But that shouldn't mean expectations should get too far out in front.  Today, I believe exceeding 70 wins should be a goal.  I also think the next 30 days will tell a lot about how Elias thinks the timetable is coming.  I bought into a total rebuild and so I have been more tolerant of horrible baseball than many.  But I believe it's time and Elias will begin losing support if we do not begin notable improvement at the Major League level n 2022.

I have criticized ownership but I mean no disrespect, it is possible the uncertainty with ownership is the single biggest impediment to getting this rebuild rolling.

[NCRaven]

On 7/6/2021 at 12:18 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Will the minors still play during the lockout?  Can't remember what happened last time there was a lockout/strike. 

I believe that minor league players that are not on 40 man rosters are not part of the MLB Players Association.  So, at least those players would play.  Now, 40 man roster players that have been optioned to the minors are the gray area.  I believe they are still members of the MLBPA and would not be able to play.  So, there's a good reason not to call up Rutschman this year.  He would be on the 40 man and wouldn't be able to play during a lockout, if I'm correct.

[spiritof66]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I believe that minor league players that are not on 40 man rosters are not part of the MLB Players Association.  So, at least those players would play.  Now, 40 man roster players that have been optioned to the minors are the gray area.  I believe they are still members of the MLBPA and would not be able to play.  So, there's a good reason not to call up Rutschman this year.  He would be on the 40 man and wouldn't be able to play during a lockout, if I'm correct.

Yeah, the minor leaguers will play during a lockout of union members -- if the owners insist go ahead with a travesty of a mockery of a sham* MLB by opening their stadiums for those few fans who might pay to watch inferior baseball played by sub-MLB players, most of whom the fans have never heard of, and if enough minor leaguers are willing to run the risk of being reviled as scabs and sell-outs should their baseball careers resume after the real major leaguers return.

*Woody Allan, "Bananas"

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Yeah, the minor leaguers will play during a lockout of union members -- if the owners insist go ahead with a travesty of a mockery of a sham* MLB by opening their stadiums for those few fans who might pay to watch inferior baseball played by sub-MLB players, most of whom the fans have never heard of, and if enough minor leaguers are willing to run the risk of being reviled as scabs and sell-outs should their baseball careers resume after the real major leaguers return.

*Woody Allan, "Bananas"

Wow, that isn't political at all.

[spiritof66]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wow, that isn't political at all.

I sure didn't mean to be political in any way -- just to say that there will be huge impediments to having minor leaguers carry on during a lockout (or strike). I didn't state an opinion on any of this, or didn't mean to.

Going back and reading more closely, I see that I may have misinterpreted the post I responded to. I thought the poster meant that major league baseball would continue, played by minor leaguers promoted en masse. But I see now that he may have meant only that the minor leagues would continue in the absence of MLB. I'm not sure. I'll go back and correct/clarify my post when I get a few minutes.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Yeah, the minor leaguers will play during a lockout of union members -- if the owners insist go ahead with a travesty of a mockery of a sham* MLB by opening their stadiums for those few fans who might pay to watch inferior baseball played by sub-MLB players, most of whom the fans have never heard of, and if enough minor leaguers are willing to run the risk of being reviled as scabs and sell-outs should their baseball careers resume after the real major leaguers return.

*Woody Allan, "Bananas"

I"m not saying that minor leaguers would play as Major League scabs.  Just that the minor league players would play in the current minor league set up.  I don't think that the union objects to the Bowie Baysox playing as the Bowie Baysox.  But they would ban a minor league player from union membership who played for a major league team during a strike.

Also, keep in mind that this will not be a strike.  A lockout occurs any time that the business and the collective bargaining unit can not reach agreement on a new contract.  A strike occurs when there is a contract in place and the players walk out and refuse to play.

Kevin Millar was a replacement player during the last strike.  He was banned for life from union membership and could not receive any fees based on licensing with the MLBPA.

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I"m not saying that minor leaguers would play as Major League scabs.  Just that the minor league players would play in the current minor league set up.  I don't think that the union objects to the Bowie Baysox playing as the Bowie Baysox.  But they would ban a minor league player from union membership who played for a major league team during a strike.

Also, keep in mind that this will not be a strike.  A lockout occurs any time that the business and the collective bargaining unit can not reach agreement on a new contract.  A strike occurs when there is a contract in place and the players walk out and refuse to play.

Kevin Millar was a replacement player during the last strike.  He was banned for life from union membership and could not receive any fees based on licensing with the MLBPA.

Sorry. I misunderstood your earlier post, as I acknowledged a few posts back. One thing I don't know is what a minor-league player's standard contract looks like. I've seen the standard contract for MLB, which in effect says the players will be paid for the  year (unless the union says it's OK not to pay them, as it did last year). I don't know what minor leaguers' contracts say about the players being legally required to play or about their teams being legally required to pay them whether or not there are games. And big-money signings like Rutschman may have different contract provisions.

I don't think your distinction between a strike and a lockout is quite right, but that's probably not relevant. In either case, it would be interesting to see whether the minor-league seasons continue. My guess is that some owners won't want to carry on with minor league seasons, since at this point those teams are a money-losing proposition that exist only to feed the big-league clubs, and some will want to continue because it serves their organizations' interests or because canceling would look bad. But you're right that they could continue and maybe they would.  It also would be interesting to see whether the minor leaguers get pressure from the union or from major leaguers not to play; if that happens, there may be legal repercussions if the minor leaguers are contractually obligated to keep playing. 

 

[Camden_yardbird]

They could be respectable.  Would need to spend some money.  They won't spend that money.  I'm not convinced they will spend that money when their lineup is 7 deep and they are knocking on the door of the playoffs and need just 1 or 2 more pieces.

[George]

The 1960 "Baby Birds" were competitive with the Yankees for the A.L. pennant until mid-September. The team had some very good young pitchers.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

28 minutes ago, George said:

The 1960 "Baby Birds" were competitive with the Yankees for the A.L. pennant until mid-September. The team had some very good young pitchers.

I could see a surprise 2023 playoff contender if the top prospects shine right away, but next year seems too soon with the way the organization is taking it's time to make sure prospects are ready.