2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

People saying this have a fundamental misunderstanding of the baseball draft. If the O's end up spending significantly under their slot, sure, but that's not going to happen.

Elias and his data guys are allocating resources as "smartly" as they can. Nobody here knows if that's the best strategy in any case, much less this one. 

As SG said, Faleris had this guy 8. FG had him 7. Shepherd (another former poster here) had him above Davis. Loves the hit tool. Thinks CF is his position. Add all of that up and the potential to save money TO BE USED ON LATER PICKS and it's at least justifiable. No idea if it'll work. 

While we're at it, let's also stop blaming the Kjerstad situation on going under slot. He and the O's got struck by terrible luck. If that's going to happen, at least I'm glad we saved resources on that pick to spread around. If anything, that justifies the strategy of not putting too many eggs in a single basket. Why can't people get that?

I concur with all of this.  I hope you did not think I advocated this position.  I was simply pointing out that I think many here view $ driving this and I think you concisely and correctly offer the opposite view.  Thanks

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Yeah, that is certainly a major factor. I have defended the blatant and unapologetic tanking more than many others here, but seeing the payoff turn out to be multiple underslot picks in the top 5 is disheartening and underwhelming, especially when a high-upside, potentially-elite pitcher, which is what we need more than anything else, like Rocker was right there. 

Lawler and Rocker will be but two passes that could haunt us.  That is the case in every draft.  But I think viewing Rocker as a 4 inning pitcher is a poor assessment.  We will see. 

41 minutes ago, deward said:

I think you have to consider one more possibility - Lawler didn't want to be here. There was plenty of buzz that he would be comfortable going on to Vandy and shooting for 1-1 in 2023 if he was unhappy with yesterday's outcome.

Well, in fairness, other than a clear opportunity...I could see any pick hoping to make the Orioles pass.  But I think that is overrated.  He will sign with AZ and I think he would have signed with Baltimore.  Way too many uncertainties to risk 4 or 5 pick slots.  But if he told Baltimore he would not sign if drafted, that is certainly reason to take Cowser.....

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing you gain by losing on purpose is getting a high pick.   That’s why people are saying it and they are correct for doing so.

You keep pointing out how people are misinformed and uneducated and then you point this out to fuel them.  Getting the high pick is the point you are correct.  But its picks and its talent maximization that the Orioles are after.  I agree with you that Lawler was potentially a huge mistake to pass.  But you don't know why.  I don't know why.  That doesn't mean we are not going to eyeball his path and worry endlessly we missed a first ballot hall of famer.  But the bottom line is we dont know and the margins are close enough that calling the pick a mistake definitively is poor.

Clearly the folks that did all of the rankings all got it wrong.  And that started with Davis going number 1.  I think he last topped the MLB board on Jun 11 and hadn't been number one on anyones list since.  The point is in a month things changed and came all the way back full circle for some.  For others, like Bednar, his performance in the College WS clearly bumped him up at least 10-15 spots.  

And stated more correctly, the benefit of not maximizing ML talent is to maximize ML talent acquisition.  They are not losing on purpose.  I know that is splitting another hair...still.

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, Getz said:

Do you really expect Stewart or McKenna to have any impact on a contending team!?

Expect? No.  But they are still in the mix at this point. 

[sevastras]

So it has been floated that maybe Lawlar didnt want to come to Bmore.  I would have picked him anyways and forced him to sign or go to college.  If he goes to college, you get the #6 pick next year.  So you would be picking 2,6,comp A, so 30something and then late 30 something.  4 picks in the first 40 picks would be a sweet deal. And two of those in the first 6.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I concur with all of this.  I hope you did not think I advocated this position.  I was simply pointing out that I think many here view $ driving this and I think you concisely and correctly offer the opposite view.  Thanks

Lawler and Rocker will be but two passes that could haunt us.  That is the case in every draft.  But I think viewing Rocker as a 4 inning pitcher is a poor assessment.  We will see. 

Well, in fairness, other than a clear opportunity...I could see any pick hoping to make the Orioles pass.  But I think that is overrated.  He will sign with AZ and I think he would have signed with Baltimore.  Way too many uncertainties to risk 4 or 5 pick slots.  But if he told Baltimore he would not sign if drafted, that is certainly reason to take Cowser.....

You keep pointing out how people are misinformed and uneducated and then you point this out to fuel them.  Getting the high pick is the point you are correct.  But its picks and its talent maximization that the Orioles are after.  I agree with you that Lawler was potentially a huge mistake to pass.  But you don't know why.  I don't know why.  That doesn't mean we are not going to eyeball his path and worry endlessly we missed a first ballot hall of famer.  But the bottom line is we dont know and the margins are close enough that calling the pick a mistake definitively is poor.

Clearly the folks that did all of the rankings all got it wrong.  And that started with Davis going number 1.  I think he last topped the MLB board on Jun 11 and hadn't been number one on anyones list since.  The point is in a month things changed and came all the way back full circle for some.  For others, like Bednar, his performance in the College WS clearly bumped him up at least 10-15 spots.  

And stated more correctly, the benefit of not maximizing ML talent is to maximize ML talent acquisition.  They are not losing on purpose.  I know that is splitting another hair...still.

They are absolutely losing on purpose.     
 

And you don’t need to lose 100 games to maximize the talent.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, sevastras said:

So it has been floated that maybe Lawlar didnt want to come to Bmore.  I would have picked him anyways and forced him to sign or go to college.  If he goes to college, you get the #6 pick next year.  So you would be picking 2,6,comp A, so 30something and then late 30 something.  4 picks in the first 40 picks would be a sweet deal. And two of those in the first 6.

And then you’re guaranteed to pick under slot at 6 because you lose all leverage in negotiations knowing that you don’t get the benefit of a replacement pick the next year if #6 doesn’t sign. Plus you lose a year of development. It’s odd to say that you would’ve picked someone without knowing the details of Lawlar’s signing requirements. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, sevastras said:

So it has been floated that maybe Lawlar didnt want to come to Bmore.  I would have picked him anyways and forced him to sign or go to college.  If he goes to college, you get the #6 pick next year.  So you would be picking 2,6,comp A, so 30something and then late 30 something.  4 picks in the first 40 picks would be a sweet deal. 

Who is floating that?

[John Gibson]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So the draft pool means something but it doesn’t mean a ton.  End of the day, you are losing to get the high pick.  That is your one true reward.

It may not be a big chunk of money relative to MLB salaries but it's a pretty big deal if the goal is to get more of those over slot guys in the system.   Not sure the Orioles approach in 2020 works if they're picking 5th instead of 2nd and therefore have $1.6m less to spread around.  They most likely wouldn't have been able to afford Mayo without that extra pool money.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

It may not be a big chunk of money relative to MLB salaries but it's a pretty big deal if the goal is to get more of those over slot guys in the system.   Not sure the Orioles approach in 2020 works if they're picking 5th instead of 2nd and therefore have $1.6m less to spread around.  They most likely wouldn't have been able to afford Mayo without that extra pool money.

Of course they could have. Again, every team signs guys over slot all the time.

Now, the Os may not have been able to take Servideo and instead they take some underslot guy.  Ok, so be it.  You obviously can’t slot or overslot guys with every pick but you can do it with some picks, no matter what your draft pool allotment is.

If having a more watchable product means I don’t get the Anthony Servideos of the world, in good with that.

And btw, how much evidence do we even have that spending over slot for guys drafted in the later rounds is even worth it?

Think the Os are excited they paid Fenter a million bucks as a 7th rounder?  

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, deward said:

I think you have to consider one more possibility - Lawler didn't want to be here. There was plenty of buzz that he would be comfortable going on to Vandy and shooting for 1-1 in 2023 if he was unhappy with yesterday's outcome.

 

54 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

I mentioned this possibility previously.  While we'll never know for sure, I think it's a likely explanation.  He (his advisor) probably told the O's to not pick him as he preferred to go to AZ if he fell out of the top 4.  It's possible he wanted to go to either TX or AZ.

 

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Who is floating that?

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sevastras said:

 

 

 

So the answer is no one.  There is no actual info or news or anything.  
 

Btw, I’m not saying this isn’t true or can’t be true but we have no actual info that says it is, so I think we can take it off the table.

I’m fine saying that he isn’t turning down 6-7M to play pro ball.

[sevastras]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

And then you’re guaranteed to pick under slot at 6 because you lose all leverage in negotiations knowing that you don’t get the benefit of a replacement pick the next year if #6 doesn’t sign. Plus you lose a year of development. It’s odd to say that you would’ve picked someone without knowing the details of Lawlar’s signing requirements. 

If he simply said dont pick me, I may have just done that.  Then that messes up the rest of your picks because you lose that slot money to spend.  I am just a call your bluff kind of guy and a gambler, that is why a lot of the picks I like are high upside high schoolers that may not even pan out.

[sevastras]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

So the answer is no one.  There is no actual info or news or anything.  
 

Btw, I’m not saying this isn’t true or can’t be true but we have no actual info that says it is, so I think we can take it off the table.

I’m fine saying that he isn’t turning down 6-7M to play pro ball.

Sorry, didnt mean to imply that it was actual news or rumors.  Floating may be the wrong wording.  Some people on here are wondering out loud if that may have been the case but we will probably never know for sure.  My guess is he had a dollar amount above what the Os valued him at.

[Hazmat]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

So the answer is no one.  There is no actual info or news or anything.  
 

Btw, I’m not saying this isn’t true or can’t be true but we have no actual info that says it is, so I think we can take it off the table.

I’m fine saying that he isn’t turning down 6-7M to play pro ball.

In the draft coverage on ESPN, the hosts mentioned this gamesmanship happens frequently in terms of advisors telling teams to not pick their players.  If Lawlar knew AZ would select him if he fell out of the top 4, I wouldn't blame him for telling the O's to pass on him.  He's a TX kid and likely saw TX and AZ as landing spots he'd be comfortable with.  You can take it off the table if you want, but the possibility is real.  I imagine it would be embarrassing to learn how many of these draftees view the O's and Baltimore as a landing spot.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

In the draft coverage on ESPN, the hosts mentioned this gamesmanship happens frequently in terms of advisors telling teams to not pick their players.  If Lawlar knew AZ would select him if he fell out of the top 4, I wouldn't blame him for telling the O's to pass on him.  He's a TX kid and likely saw TX and AZ as landing spots he'd be comfortable with.  You can take it off the table if you want, but the possibility is real.  I imagine it would be embarrassing to learn how many of these draftees view the O's and Baltimore as a landing spot.

Sure, I’m not denying that is possible.  
 

What I think is more likely is that these guys are happy to get paid a lot of money and would happily go where they are drafted.

On top of that, I think it’s also obvious the Os want to save a little money here and they weren’t doing that with Lawlar.  That’s why they made this pick.

I do not believe they had Cowser rated higher than Lawlar.  I do believe they had Cowser rated above most, if not everyone else.

My issue is not taking Lawlar.  My issue is less about Cowser and more about Lawlar.  I like what I’m reading about Cowser and quite frankly, im glad they took him over some of the other rumored players.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

In the draft coverage on ESPN, the hosts mentioned this gamesmanship happens frequently in terms of advisors telling teams to not pick their players.  If Lawlar knew AZ would select him if he fell out of the top 4, I wouldn't blame him for telling the O's to pass on him.  He's a TX kid and likely saw TX and AZ as landing spots he'd be comfortable with.  You can take it off the table if you want, but the possibility is real.  I imagine it would be embarrassing to learn how many of these draftees view the O's and Baltimore as a landing spot.

The scenario that actually happened is that the Orioles like Cowser more than Lawlar. I think many are overrating Lawlar here. Easily the lowest offensive ceiling out of the HS SS and there are many reports that teams soured on him considerably as the summer went along. Boston for example didn't even have him as an option at 4 apparently. I'd imagine that was the case with everybody 1-5. With Lawlar you get a lot of risk and comparatively limited upside all at a premium cost. If they would've passed on Mayer or Leiter for Cower then that would've been extremely questionable.