2021 2nd round pick (41): Connor Norby - 2B - (Junior) East Carolina University

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

 

If he's limited to second base, that's fine.  As long as he can be a decent defender there.  If the bat is really that special, that'll play well as long as he's not a straight up butcher with the glove.  IIRC this is the guy we drafted yesterday that apparently is limited to 2B because he doesn't have a strong arm.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You can argue it either way.   I know you would have preferred the high risk/high reward approach.   My impression of Elias is he’s pretty risk-averse.    Given that philosophy, I like the choice.   

The fact is, there’s a good bit of risk with every draft pick, including Norby.  If he turned out to be a 2-3 WAR player I’d be very happy.   
 

Except that contact issues don't seem to factor into his risk assessment

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Yes they could have.

I understand your frustrations, however you on one hand are calling for the rebuild to be done faster...so they draft a lot of college guys that should be able to rise quicker.  Should be, being the keywords there.  And then you're upset that they're not taking enough high school guys who won't track as quickly as college players.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not particularly thrilled with the draft so far, either.  There seems to be talk on how much Cowser will take under slot, some seem to think it'll be a substantial amount, others not so much.  I agree with you that they haven't taken any high upside HS talent and that's a bummer.

But for someone who's constantly lambasting the FO for taking too long on the rebuild, preferring college players in the draft doesn't seem like something you'd be really upset about.

I do like college players.  But what I like the most are elite, high upside guys.

I feel the Os have some safe guys right now.  It’s time to turn up the talent faucet.

I am relatively risk adverse early on.  In other words, I feel if you have a top 5 pick, you need to hit on it.  That being said, you do also need elite talent to win and the Os should be looking for that.  To me, there are some drafts where you go the safe route and others you take the elite guys.  
 

Lawlar was there for them.  At 41, a lot of high level HS talent was sitting there.  
 

It’s not that I dislike North or especially Cowser.  It’s a philosophy that is built around losing on purpose.  If you are losing on purpose, drafting safe guys isn’t good enough for me.  You can always get safe guys. Losing on purpose should put the elite guys in your pocket.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he's limited to second base, that's fine.  As long as he can be a decent defender there.  If the bat is really that special, that'll play well as long as he's not a straight up butcher with the glove.  IIRC this is the guy we drafted yesterday that apparently is limited to 2B because he doesn't have a strong arm.  

I don’t care if he is limited to second base but it also obviously limits his upside and his ceiling.  But he should move fast and help soon.

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The fact is, there’s a good bit of risk with every draft pick, including Norby.  If he turned out to be a 2-3 WAR player I’d be very happy.   

It would make him the most valuable #41 overall pick since 1973 (Fred Lynn). The second most valuable (not including Dan Plesac in 1980 who didn't sign) is Sean Doolittle with a 9.7 career rWAR. Ryan Flaherty (1.1 rWAR) is the 10th most valuable #41 overall pick to be selected and signed since Fred Lynn.

Interestingly, both Lance McCullers and Lance McCullers, Jr. were selected with the #41 overall pick.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do like college players.  But what I like the most are elite, high upside guys.

I feel the Os have some safe guys right now.  It’s time to turn up the talent faucet.

I am relatively risk adverse early on.  In other words, I feel if you have a top 5 pick, you need to hit on it.  That being said, you do also need elite talent to win and the Os should be looking for that.  To me, there are some drafts where you go the safe route and others you take the elite guys.  
 

Lawlar was there for them.  At 41, a lot of high level HS talent was sitting there.  
 

It’s not that I dislike North or especially Cowser.  It’s a philosophy that is built around losing on purpose.  If you are losing on purpose, drafting safe guys isn’t good enough for me.  You can always get safe guys. Losing on purpose should put the elite guys in your pocket.

I understand and I don't totally disagree.  IMO, I think Elias needs some fast risers to get this thing turned around and he's preferring college level talent.  I agree, it's not as sexy and these guys he's picking might not be "elite."  There's not as much upside in the sense that these guys have already matured a good deal.  But I think he's preferring the college talent because he knows he needs guys who can start at a higher level and get to Baltimore, hopefully, in a year and a half or so.

Now I'd prefer it if he'd gone about this with picking an abundance of pitching yesterday.  I'm alright with the Cowser pick as I wouldn't have wanted Rocker...but I'd have liked to have seen more arms taken in the 2-10th rounds out of college.

Anyway, when you say these guys are "safe" is it because they're a little older and have already developed more than a HSer?  There's not as much mystery as to what they are?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I understand and I don't totally disagree.  IMO, I think Elias needs some fast risers to get this thing turned around and he's preferring college level talent.  I agree, it's not as sexy and these guys he's picking might not be "elite."  There's not as much upside in the sense that these guys have already matured a good deal.  But I think he's preferring the college talent because he knows he needs guys who can start at a higher level and get to Baltimore, hopefully, in a year and a half or so.

Now I'd prefer it if he'd gone about this with picking an abundance of pitching yesterday.  I'm alright with the Cowser pick as I wouldn't have wanted Rocker...but I'd have liked to have seen more arms taken in the 2-10th rounds out of college.

Anyway, when you say these guys are "safe" is it because they're a little older and have already developed more than a HSer?  There's not as much mystery as to what they are?

Yes..generally speaking, college bats are the safest thing you can draft.  Of course, they are also older, have a shorter life span in terms of peak and don’t have as high a ceiling, generally speaking.  They also usually have a higher floor.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes..generally speaking, college bats are the safest thing you can draft.  Of course, they are also older, have a shorter life span in terms of peak and don’t have as high a ceiling, generally speaking.  They also usually have a higher floor.

Okay, making sure we're on the same page.

I know you're annoyed that Elias hasn't gone with any HS elite upside talent.  Is that offset by any of the J2 stuff for you or no?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Okay, making sure we're on the same page.

I know you're annoyed that Elias hasn't gone with any HS elite upside talent.  Is that offset by any of the J2 stuff for you or no?

No, they aren’t related.  Teams take high upside talent and spend on J2 and they don’t have the draft pool we do.

And to be clear, my annoyance is more about the idea of not winning, losing on purpose and the only advantage to that being the draft…if you are doing it for that one reason, you need to hammer the draft imo.  The Orioles could have picked 12th this year and very possibly had the exact same draft or some very similar variation to it.  
 

That shouldn’t be able to be said if your intent is to lose games on purpose.

[Sports Guy]

 

[joelala]

 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

#Growthmindset

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The write ups on Norby tell me he can be a valuable piece..a 2-3 WAR second baseman (unless the defense is elite).  Norby/Cowser 1-2 in the lineup is a possibility.

I've been picturing this too.   Ryan Mountcastle might get on a Joe Carter-like RBI run.

[Just Regular]

Obviously we very likely wouldn't get 100% on best bats coming through, but after pairing Norby with Cowser yesterday, if Santander recovers well enough to hold serve through Arb4 2024, three years is enough for Kjerstad to heal, and one of the thoroughbreds can cover SS then perhaps that year the manager's Go To lineup is something like

CF Mullins

LF Cowser

C Adley

1B Mountcastle

RF/DH Kjerstad

3B Henderson

RF/DH Santander

SS Westburg

2B Norby

Let's start shining up Austin Hays for the trade market.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

 

Let's start shining up Austin Hays for the trade market.

 

Gotta be careful doing that, he might pull a hamstring and land on the IL.

[MDtransplant757]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I'll take it. Middle INF like that will be a massive need. Henderson should be at 3B and Westburg at SS on the next couple competing orioles teams, but who plays 2B? If we can fast track this guy based on bat and overall ok defense alone, it'll be a solid pick.