Olney on O’s losing

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I know you're familiar with the slot values, but need to add it for context of the readers.  Kjerstad and other good options might have been there later, sure.  But a low pick comes with lower slot values too.  And less flexibility with under/overslot picks that have been pretty good to Elias/Ciolek over the years.

You could have still had the main guys from that draft…but maybe you don’t take haskin and Servideo.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You could have still had the main guys from that draft…but maybe you don’t take haskin and Servideo.

Enjoy the multiverse.  I'm out.

[ThomasTomasz]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The question is how long.  And you are kidding yourself if you don't think gutting payroll to increase profitability wasn't a core reason for the tank.

Is the DSL facility completed?  I've not heard that it is.  Basallo has nothing to do with the new facility.

The have still lost guys under Elias, Tanner Scott and Yaz for example.  It's part of the game.  I'm not mad about it but don't pretend Elias is immune.

I’m sure they did cut payroll to increase profitability.  But where the Orioles were infrastructure wise, you couldn’t outspend the competition to make a competitive team.  The Orioles needed a pipeline like the Dodgers and Rays, and they needed to do multiple things to get that pipeline established.  All of that took time, especially when you had Elias come in after most teams had already made their hires for the next year.  

They broke ground close to two years ago.  I am not sure if it is completed yet, but you are correct, Basallo had nothing to do with the facility.  But, we did make inroads and are signing 1-2 J2 FAs the past couple years who are ranked in the top 50.  It’s primarily relationship-based, and if we’re doing that at our infancy, without the benefit of a world-class training center, imagine what the Orioles reach will have with that world class training center, and the success stories of players like Basallo.  

Yeah, we still lost guys, and it is part of the game.  We’re not immune to it either, but we’re now not the team that just lets guys go, and they become successful elsewhere.  We have our own success stories, which far outweigh the players we’ve let go at least in my opinion.  

 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Enjoy the multiverse.  I'm out.

Are you denying what I’m saying?  It’s an absolute fact.

Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg and Baumler signed for a combined total of about 10.85M.

5 different teams had enough slot bonus to cover those deals and 3 others were over 10.2M and they could have easily gone over and paid the small penalty.

We have seen plenty of teams punt on picks and sign 3rd-6th rounders for 20k to ensure they sign overslot guys.

They 100% could have done that with a lower bonus pool. 
 

But again, the 2020 draft is a draft they should have tanked for. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

We have our own success stories, which far outweigh the players we’ve let go at least in my opinion.  

 

We've always had our own success stories.

Steve Peace for example.

Guthrie.

O'Day.

Hardy.

That's not an Elias thing.

You win some, you lose some.  Not every developmental system is going to work for every player.

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

We've always had our own success stories.

Steve Peace for example.

Guthrie.

O'Day.

Hardy.

That's not an Elias thing.

You win some, you lose some.  Not every developmental system is going to work for every player.

Do you think Elias' success rate to date is higher or lower than whatever is normal?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We've always had our own success stories.

Steve Peace for example.

Guthrie.

O'Day.

Hardy.

That's not an Elias thing.

You win some, you lose some.  Not every developmental system is going to work for every player.

MGon, Rodrigo Lopez, McLouth for a short period of time.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Do you think Elias' success rate to date is higher or lower than whatever is normal?

No clue.

It depends on your definitions.

How much credit do you get for someone like Voth?

He was pulled off the scrap heap in 2022 and had a solid half a season and then was below replacement this year.  Is that a success?

Tanner Scott put up a better rWAR than Bautista did.  How big an L is that?

I saw plenty of guys like Dwight Smith Jr filter through the program.  Did he hit on a higher percentage or did he have more crap to throw at the wall?

My instinct is that he hits (and misses) at pretty close the same rate as everyone else.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No clue.

It depends on your definitions.

How much credit do you get for someone like Voth?

He was pulled off the scrap heap in 2022 and had a solid half a season and then was below replacement this year.  Is that a success?

Tanner Scott put up a better rWAR than Bautista did.  How big an L is that?

I saw plenty of guys like Dwight Smith Jr filter through the program.  Did he hit on a higher percentage or did he have more crap to throw at the wall?

My instinct is that he hits (and misses) at pretty close the same rate as everyone else.

Yea I would agree and I also agree, what is the definition  of a hit, with Voth being a good example. I mean, over the years how many times did we see some scrub go to the Yankees and all of a sudden get good?  It happens everywhere.

What I do believe is they Elias, his team and the coaches have done a marvelous development job.

I also think, when it comes to the pitchers, the impact of the wall and new dimensions in LF can’t be understated.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No clue.

It depends on your definitions.

How much credit do you get for someone like Voth?

He was pulled off the scrap heap in 2022 and had a solid half a season and then was below replacement this year.  Is that a success?

Tanner Scott put up a better rWAR than Bautista did.  How big an L is that?

I saw plenty of guys like Dwight Smith Jr filter through the program.  Did he hit on a higher percentage or did he have more crap to throw at the wall?

My instinct is that he hits (and misses) at pretty close the same rate as everyone else.

That's fair.  A ton of variables that are difficult to nail down...  It dodges the intent of the loosely worded question a bit, but fair.  And why these multiverse conversations are like a dog chasing its tail.

[LookinUp]

A few somewhat random thoughts that were spurred by the last couple of pages.

1. I'm not sold on Cowser. I'm hopeful that another offseason will be really helpful for him, but if pressed today I'd probably take Beavers over him.

2. I'm also not sold on Koby Perez. I'm not down on him, but with all of the work that's been done, I'd hope the pipeline was looking more robust by now. I could easily be convinced that it's about to really start bearing fruit next year (beyond Basallo), but I'm impatient. There's a particular pitcher that could change my mind pretty quickly though, so we'll see.

3. Someone made a post about the priority being to build a better organization as a whole. Well, I find it interesting that the championship series in the International League was between the O's and Rays affiliates, and the PCL was between the Dodgers and Rangers. That's a small sample, but it sure seems like org strength up and down contributes significantly to the ML team.

[LTO's]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No clue.

It depends on your definitions.

How much credit do you get for someone like Voth?

He was pulled off the scrap heap in 2022 and had a solid half a season and then was below replacement this year.  Is that a success?

Tanner Scott put up a better rWAR than Bautista did.  How big an L is that?

Scott was a 0 bWAR player in 2022 and Bautista has been worth 2+ WAR over Scott since he was traded. If you are going to only include the good year of the player we lost and the bad year of the player we acquired you are going to come to the conclusions you want to come to. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Scott was a 0 bWAR player in 2022 and Bautista has been worth 2+ WAR over Scott since he was traded. If you are going to only include the good year of the player we lost and the bad year of the player we acquired you are going to come to the conclusions you want to come to. 

I'm not really trying to.

I'm just saying it's really hard to define.

Voth and Scott were just two easy examples.

Not as if Scott had been traded for Bautista, they could have had both or ended up with neither. 

[Osornot]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not. You don’t need to tank longer to win longer.

I don't believe that if the "tank" was 1-2 years we would have the level of young talent now in the Majors nor lining up behind them.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Osornot said:

I don't believe that if the "tank" was 1-2 years we would have the level of young talent now in the Majors nor lining up behind them.

See then you don’t believe in Elias’ eye for talent and the program they have in place to develop it?

I don’t believe they would have the #1 prospect in the sport right now.  That’s it.