Should we have kept Brocail?

[Sports Guy]

In the SSS of the 2020 season, the Os pitching was 16th in the majors in team ERA.  The ERA was 4.51.  This year, they are last with a 5.83 ERA.

In 2020, they had the 10th best walk rate. In 2021, they are 24th, walking .4 batters more per game.

In 2020, they were 16th in Hr rate.  This year they are last.

K rate has basically stayed the same, both in terms of per 9 IP and ranking.

FIP last year had them 4.60.  This year, it is 5.02, indicating that perhaps the staff is more unlucky this year than last year but still Not as good.

Starters are averaging about the same IP per start but the starters are averaging more than a run given up per start.  ERA this year is 6.16.  Last year, it was just above 5.

This year, the Os have the worst BP in the league, ERA wise. In 2020, they were 9th and the ERA has jumped about 1.5 runs.

In 25 IP last year, Akin had a 4.5 ERA, a K rate over 12, a HR rate just over 1 and 3.5 BB rate.  This year, the walk rate has stayed the same(more or less) but the K rate has dropped into the 8s, the ERA is up over 8 (although the FIP is below 5) and the HR rate went to 1.5.

Tanner Scott has seen his K rate go up this year but the BB rate has jumped just as high and the ERA is way up.

Kremer ended the year last year pitching well (outside of his last start). This year he has been terrible. 
 

These are just a few examples.

This is all of course to be taken with some level of a grain of salt.  I am comparing 60 games to about 120 games.  Obviously the 120 games gives you a better picture than 60 but the pitching definitely seemed better last year.  Is Holt doing something different?  He has never been a ML PC before iirc.  Is he someone that has great thoughts and methods but is struggling to communicate them On the ML Level?  
 

I know WC thinks Holt is gods gift to pitching but, in his defense, this is what Elias is pumping him up to be and yet, here we are with easily the worst staff in baseball And basically no one is showing signs of improvement.  Who knows,  maybe if last year was 120 games instead of 60, the pitching numbers would have looked like this.  At one point early in the season, our pen was ranked high this year as well.  It definitely could be that but based off of the info we do have, the pitching has definitely regressed.

[Can_of_corn]

Where you going to get that money?

[Frobby]

It’s unknowable how the team would have done with Brocail, but it’s pretty clear that Holt isn’t some magical wizard as some had built him up to be.   

[Moose Milligan]

Holt isn't the dude, I don't think.

Then again, Brocail had the advantage of having Akin and Kremer up for their debuts before the book could really get out on them, too.  I don't know how you quantify that, if it can be quantified.  It's just a theory.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Holt isn't the dude, I don't think.

Then again, Brocail had the advantage of having Akin and Kremer up for their debuts before the book could really get out on them, too.  I don't know how you quantify that, if it can be quantified.  It's just a theory.

And this is true..it goes back to my point about this maybe not being a fair comparison because of the sample size.

What we do know is that Holt isn’t doing a good job this year and that the staff performed better under Brocail.  What we don’t know is if Brocail would still be performing well and that’s what makes this a tough conversation to really know the answer.  
 

Still, it makes you wonder if Holt is really as good as they say and if we would have been better off with Brocail.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And this is true..it goes back to my point about this maybe not being a fair comparison because of the sample size.

What we do know is that Holt isn’t doing a good job this year and that the staff performed better under Brocail.  What we don’t know is if Brocail would still be performing well and that’s what makes this a tough conversation to really know the answer.  
 

Still, it makes you wonder if Holt is really as good as they say and if we would have been better off with Brocail.

Holt isn't doing a good job, this is true.  But it's like he's being asked to paint a copy of the Mona Lisa with fingerpaint.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Holt isn't doing a good job, this is true.  But it's like he's being asked to paint a copy of the Mona Lisa with fingerpaint.  

Sure but as much as we mock these guys, there is talent here.  All of it has regressed.  His methods don’t seem to be getting through to anyone except maybe Sulser?

[Aristotelian]

Is there a "none of the above" option?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Is there a "none of the above" option?

What was your issue with Brocail?

[wildcard]

I will stick with Holt.   I think the problem is the quantity and quality of the pitchers provide to him by Elias and Ownership.  Which is not surprising because neither was trying to win this year.

The O's have the least starter innings of any team in baseball and the third highest relief innings.    And that is probably not going to get better this season because August is always a struggle for pitching and Sept this year does not have expanded rosters to degree that it is going to do much for the pitching.

I think Holt and the whole management team will look better next year with Means, Baumann and Grayson in the rotation and the increased innings that Tyler Wells can provide.  It will be a big help if Ownership and Elias actually staff the team trying to win next year.

[Can_of_corn]

Stick with Holt?

They had both.  Why not just keep both where they were?

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but as much as we mock these guys, there is talent here.  All of it has regressed.  His methods don’t seem to be getting through to anyone except maybe Sulser?

There is talent from the perspective that even the worst player in MLB is in the 99.9% percentile of all players in the world.  

But let's not pretend that Akin is a guy with electric stuff who can't harness it.  He does have, at times, a very nice slider.  The rest of his offerings?  Not that special. 

Is a guy like Akin someone who can find success elsewhere?  Maybe.  I'm of the opinion that a lot of guys who struggle at the major league level are a tweak or two away from finding success.  We've seen it so many times over the years where a guy is close to flaming out and not making it.  Then they'll find a new batting stance, a new approach to hitting or a new pitch or a mechanical adjustment in their delivery.  As mentioned, a guy like Akin is one of the best baseball players in the entire world.'

So maybe Holt isn't the guy.  It's hard to say.  But the fact that absolutely none of our young pitchers, guys that we were counting on to step up and contribute has been alarming to say the least.  But you look at a guy like Means who's been very good this year, he's pitched well no matter who the coach is.  Tyler Wells, a scrap heap Rule 5 guy has done well.  

But I agree, the majority of the work this year hasn't been encouraging.

 

[eddie83]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but as much as we mock these guys, there is talent here.  All of it has regressed.  His methods don’t seem to be getting through to anyone except maybe Sulser?

What kind of talent? Starters who should be relievers? 
 

If I had to question anything this year with the staff and coaching it’s the bullpen. The rotation was a mess. Sure we all hoped they would develop more but I’m not shocked. Last year SSS meant nothing. 
 

The pen wasn’t exactly a bunch of proven arms but you had some experience. It’s a mess right now outside of Sulser. 
 

I know stats wise it’s not impressive but I think T Wells has shown something. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Stick with Holt?

They had both.  Why not just keep both where they were?

I think they didn’t want to pay Holt enough to be a pitching coordinator or he no longer wanted that role. Had to justify his pay increase by making him the pitching coach. I know they were worried about losing him and I’m sure like any coach he wants to be at the majors. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will stick with Holt.   I think the problem is the quantity and quality of the pitchers provide to him by Elias and Ownership.  Which is not surprising because neither was trying to win this year.

The O's have the least starter innings of any team in baseball and the third highest relief innings.    And that is probably not going to get better this season because August is always a struggle for pitching and Sept this year does not have expanded rosters to degree that it is going to do much for the pitching.

I think Holt and the whole management team will look better next year with Means, Baumann and Grayson in the rotation and the increased innings that Tyler Wells can provide.  It will be a big help if Ownership and Elias actually staff the team trying to win next year.

Wait a minute…you talked about how he could turn around guys like Lopez, who is terrible.

Now, you want to blame Elias on what he gave him to work with?

Which is it?  Can he magically make bad pitchers good, as you essentially implied or does he not have enough talent to work with?  It can’t be both.