Should the O's be considering 3B/2B Josh Harrison this off season?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Kris Bryant would be the worst signing out of any of them big names out there. Why on Earth would the O's commit 150+ mil to a guy who already has practically no defensive value and is declining at the plate as well? The O's should be targeting guys who can play SS for the near future and who will have the bat/athleticism to play third as they age. Bryant is already a corner OF.....

His OPS this year is better than 2 of the last 3 seasons and that is with some games playing in an extreme pitchers park.

His walk rate is very good, his K rate is pretty low and right where it usually has been.  His ISO is at his career average.  His wRC+ is very solid.  

He isn't as good as he was 3-5 years ago (what player is?) but he is still a 3.5-5 WAR level guy.  I guess if you saying he has declined compared to his first 3 years thats true but over the last 3 or so years, thats just factually wrong.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Bryant has obvious early warning signs. Hard no for me. 

 

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Bryant has obvious early warning signs. Hard no for me. 

And what are those warnings signs?

And since you said you would sign one of the SS, who would you sign?

[LTO's]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He isn't as good as he was 3-5 years ago (what player is?)

Carlos Correa is younger and is having his best season in five years. If the Orioles are throwing around money he is the only player that makes sense. 

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

but he is still a 3.5-5 WAR level guy.

That's an assumption. Not even close to a certainty. He's not even that player this year and he's about to be 30. His defensive capabilities are declining and him moving to corner OF, which is where he belongs at this point, is going to put immense pressure on his bat to reach a 3.5-4 WAR level. That's a huge gamble and one that makes literally no sense for the O's to make. 

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

And what are those warnings signs?

And since you said you would sign one of the SS, who would you sign?

Already addressed the warning signs. Age, playing 1B/OF, and dwar per bbref. 

I did not say I would sign an elite SS. I said I would prefer an elite SS to Bryant. I would be way more enthusiastic about any of Correa, Story, Semien, Baez in approximately that order. That said, it would not be my strategy and I don't expect Elias to go in that direction. 

As stated, I am on board with Harrison or a veteran who would provide some incremental improvement with upside to potentially flip when our prospects are ready. Kyle Seager and Eduardo Escobar would also be nice improvements over Franco/Gutierrez without getting us into a long term deal. 

[Tony-OH]

The question is, what do you expect your team to do in 2022?

If this is a transition year where you expect to bring up guys like Rutschman, Stowers, and Rodriguez and start giving them major league time, you have to look at your holes.

Let's look at who should be an everyday starter in 2022:

1B: Mountcastle
2B: Urias/Mateo
SS: Matteo or FA
3B: ???
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF Santander
Rutschman
DH: Mancini

Who else is in the mix: Neustrom (LF), McKenna (4th outfielder), Jones (UTL/2B) maybe Westburg (SS) by midseason.

In my mind, 3B is a place where we a hole and no immediate replacement. So the question is, do you sure up 3B by going after Kris Bryant (although I'm not convinced he can play there effectively all season anymore)  or do you try a stop gap and hope you can transition either Henderson (most likely) or Westburg there or that Mayo is a really special and comes fast (by 2023). Of course it's still out on whether any of them can play 3B effectively at the major league level. 

I don't see Bannon or Dorrian being an option though I would have liked to have seen Dorrian in AAA for part of last season.

I think the Orioles have to look at 3B being filled by either Westburg, Henderson or Mayo from 2023 on so I'm thinking they go stop gap or they trade from their outfield depth and go after a Nolan Jones from the Indians. Indians need outfielders and already have a great 3B.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Carlos Correa is younger and is having his best season in five years. If the Orioles are throwing around money he is the only player that makes sense. 

That's an assumption. Not even close to a certainty. He's not even that player this year and he's about to be 30. His defensive capabilities are declining and him moving to corner OF, which is where he belongs at this point, is going to put immense pressure on his bat to reach a 3.5-4 WAR level. That's a huge gamble and one that makes literally no sense for the O's to make. 

Fangraphs has him at a 3.6 WAR.  BR has him 3.1.

I usually refer to FG and like their method better but that’s fine.

Correa is the better player..but he’s a bigger risk.  I’m not interested in handing him a Lindor contract.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

The question is, what do you expect your team to do in 2022?

If this is a transition year where you expect to bring up guys like Rutschman, Stowers, and Rodriguez and start giving them major league time, you have to look at your holes.

Let's look at who should be an everyday starter in 2022:

1B: Mountcastle
2B: Urias/Mateo
SS: Matteo or FA
3B: ???
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF Santander
Rutschman
DH: Mancini

Who else is in the mix: Neustrom (LF), McKenna (4th outfielder), Jones (UTL/2B) maybe Westburg (SS) by midseason.

In my mind, 3B is a place where we a hole and no immediate replacement. So the question is, do you sure up 3B by going after Kris Bryant (although I'm not convinced he can play there effectively all season anymore)  or do you try a stop gap and hope you can transition either Henderson (most likely) or Westburg there or that Mayo is a really special and comes fast (by 2023). Of course it's still out on whether any of them can play 3B effectively at the major league level. 

I don't see Bannon or Dorrian being an option though I would have liked to have seen Dorrian in AAA for part of last season.

I think the Orioles have to look at 3B being filled by either Westburg, Henderson or Mayo from 2023 on so I'm thinking they go stop gap or they trade from their outfield depth and go after a Nolan Jones from the Indians. Indians need outfielders and already have a great 3B.

 

 

Jones would be nice…but that third baseman they have is someone they may want to trade, as was rumored a few months back.

Chapman is another guy I had mentioned before.  Offense still never came around this year..defense is elite.  Is he just having a bad year or did the hip injury zap him of something? 

I feel good about getting 2-3 years of Bryant at third.  The back end of the deal I would sign him to would likely not be worth it but i think the signing of a player like him is about more than “do you get full value out of the contract”. 

[Sports Guy]

There should be no plan where Mateo is handed a starting job.  I do like him as a UTI guy though and if he ends up playing his way into a starters position, so be it.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Already addressed the warning signs. Age, playing 1B/OF, and dwar per bbref. 

I did not say I would sign an elite SS. I said I would prefer an elite SS to Bryant. I would be way more enthusiastic about any of Correa, Story, Semien, Baez in approximately that order. That said, it would not be my strategy and I don't expect Elias to go in that direction. 

As stated, I am on board with Harrison or a veteran who would provide some incremental improvement with upside to potentially flip when our prospects are ready. Kyle Seager and Eduardo Escobar would also be nice improvements over Franco/Gutierrez without getting us into a long term deal. 

I don’t get why you are worried about a LT deal.  The Os have basically zero long term payroll commitments.  
 

The team is dirt cheap.  None of our star guys from the minors will be making any real money for another 4-5 years.  Even Mountcastle is 3+ years away from making anything significant.  
 

The team rebuilt in part to get rid of contracts for the long term.  They could sign any of these guys, have the player completely flop and it not matter at all if the young guys perform and they overcome it.  
 

Again, this is the rookie QB contract analogy.  When you have that, you spend money on things you normally wouldn’t.  The Os are looking at several rookie contracts that cost them nothing for years.  
 

I mean, most of these guys don’t start making payroll changing money until their 5th or 6th year of service time…the first 4-5 years is nothing.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Already addressed the warning signs. Age, playing 1B/OF, and dwar per bbref. 

I did not say I would sign an elite SS. I said I would prefer an elite SS to Bryant. I would be way more enthusiastic about any of Correa, Story, Semien, Baez in approximately that order. That said, it would not be my strategy and I don't expect Elias to go in that direction. 

As stated, I am on board with Harrison or a veteran who would provide some incremental improvement with upside to potentially flip when our prospects are ready. Kyle Seager and Eduardo Escobar would also be nice improvements over Franco/Gutierrez without getting us into a long term deal. 

And btw, one websites use of a defensive stat and the idea that teams use his versatility are hardly obvious warning signs.

LTO’s point I the best one made against Bryant..that he is quickly going to be a guy reliant on his bat.  I agree with that.  As I said, I hope to get 2-3 years of everyday third base from him, which is, at best, half of the years I would give him in a contract overall.  So yes, the burden will be on his bat but I think his bat will be fine at OPACY and I think he will likely be able to transition to first base fine…and yes I know Mountcastle is there but a lot happens in 3 years and I’m not sure Mountcastle is a guy you want to pay 8-15M for.  But that’s tbd.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m thinking it would probably take trading Hays to get Nolan Jones. I don’t know if we’re ready to make deals where we subtract to add in a specific area yet. I wouldn’t be mad if we did, but I think we go stop gap and then see what Westburg/Gunnar do next year. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m thinking it would probably take trading Hays to get Nolan Jones. I don’t know if we’re ready to make deals where we subtract to add in a specific area yet. I wouldn’t be mad if we did, but I think we go stop gap and then see what Westburg/Gunnar do next year. 

If the Os can trade Hays for Jones, they should do that 100 times.

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get why you are worried about a LT deal.  The Os have basically zero long term payroll commitments.  
 

The team is dirt cheap.  None of our star guys from the minors will be making any real money for another 4-5 years.  Even Mountcastle is 3+ years away from making anything significant.  
 

The team rebuilt in part to get rid of contracts for the long term.  They could sign any of these guys, have the player completely flop and it not matter at all if the young guys perform and they overcome it.  
 

Again, this is the rookie QB contract analogy.  When you have that, you spend money on things you normally wouldn’t.  The Os are looking at several rookie contracts that cost them nothing for years.  
 

I mean, most of these guys don’t start making payroll changing money until their 5th or 6th year of service time…the first 4-5 years is nothing.

We are not the Angels. Even if we were that wouldn't be a sustainable way to run the organization. Look, you love Bryant and I don't. We're not going to change each others' minds here so have a great day, you can have the last word if you want.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Jones would be nice…but that third baseman they have is someone they may want to trade, as was rumored a few months back.

Chapman is another guy I had mentioned before.  Offense still never came around this year..defense is elite.  Is he just having a bad year or did the hip injury zap him of something? 

I feel good about getting 2-3 years of Bryant at third.  The back end of the deal I would sign him to would likely not be worth it but i think the signing of a player like him is about more than “do you get full value out of the contract”. 

I wouldn't be against Bryant, but I'm concerned over his defensive play at 3B. He's fallen off the last few years and there's a reason why he's being moved around defensively. I don't think at 30 next year he's going to suddenly get better defensively, especially considering his size. 

They are probably better off going the trade route or going for a place holder and hope one of their guys can be the guy.

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Correa is the better player..but he’s a bigger risk.

Ok, I'll bite....What makes a young SS firmly in his prime, coming off a 7 WAR season more of a risk than a 30 year old corner OF? Even if you could give a satisfactory answer to that, you also aren't looking at the current situation with this roster. The Orioles actually have the 5th highest OF/DH wRC+ in all of baseball. They also have the third most OF/DH HR in all of baseball. They have another potential 20-30 HR OF knocking on the door as well as two other blue chip OF prospects who could move fast. They need to be prioritizing above average defensive infielders with pop. Bryant isn't that guy. I'd rather give Javy Baez the money you are giving Bryant and I don't think I'd even hesitate with that decision. He's actually been better than Bryant this year and he's younger and still a SS who could easily move to 2B/3B eventually.