Jump to content

What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?


Frobby

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think he’ll put up .280/.370/.450/.820 next year after getting called up in May. Not sure how that translates to WAR but I’d guess about 4. 

This is almost dead on what I was thinking.  Of course, I now think you're a genius!  .820 and 3.8 rWAR/162 is what I was thinking.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games).   Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.

While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162.   We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays.   So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.   

I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.   
 

It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

 

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games).   Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.

While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162.   We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays.   So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.   

I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.   
 

The exercise if for rWAR/162.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

Frobs kind of covered that by making it a rate, so it is WAR/162.

However, the conversation really probably becomes, how much does he catch?

If he catches 95% of his abs, and puts up that OPS, he'll be well above 3 WAR.

If he catches 60%, that's probably about right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, I think people thinking he’s not going to catch a lot are wrong.  There is no reason not to catch him a lot.  The best catchers catch a lot and do it from the time they enter the league.  Adley shouldn’t be any different.

 

I agree with this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Elias has done a good job of quietly building AAA depth with 4A vet types the last few weeks to replace the top prospects that have either been called up or traded.  We don’t need 6+ service years out of these guys.  Sometimes just 6 games or 6 weeks is fine.  Just to plug one specific hole for a short period of time. JD Davis - a Norby replacement in a way. 3B/LF maybe some 2B. .768 career OPS vs LHP.  Niko Goodrum - a AAA Mateo. IF/OF. Switch hitter. Speed.  Garrett Cooper - depth behind Mountcastle. 1B. Career .801 OPS vs LHP.  Livan Soto - Elias has acquired him 3 times this year in various ways. He can play SS.  Vavra. Daniel Johnson. Two other guys that can come up for a week and not kill you.  Point being, they’re just depth, but over 162 you need players to come up and plug areas of need. With all of our prospects now on the MLB team, AAA is going to pretty much be a taxi squad and an extension of our 4 man bench. 
    • For decades the technique of “sweating a leg” or injured area has been a mainstay in conservative management of equine leg injuries, as well as improving cosmetic appearance in certain situations. While topical medications and application techniques vary greatly, all sweats have three common ingredients: A topical medication consisting of a base (traditionally nitrofurazone, or Fura-Zone, ointment) often mixed with various additives, most commonly an anti-inflammatory (a steroid such as dexamethasone or a non-steroidal anti-­inflammatory such as ­diclofenac), and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) as a carrying agent. Plastic wrap. A firmly applied stable ­bandage. The purpose of a sweat is to apply moist heat and compression to a structure to increase the tissue temperature, stimulate circulation, and aid in the removal of edema (fluid swelling). Edema occurs when the fluid that naturally leaks from blood vessels is not effectively carried away by the lymphatic system, due to poor circulation or conditions in which excess fluid leakage overcomes normal lymphatic return capacity. The nitrofurazone (or other base ingredient) creates a moist environment, while the DMSO stimulates blood flow and helps carry any other medications in the mixture into the tissues. Saran or other plastic wrap helps keep the area moist and warm, while the stable bandage helps further retain heat and compresses the swollen tissues to help the lymphatic system clear up excess extracellular fluid. Sweating is best used once the acute stage of inflammation has resolved, since you do not want to add further heat to freshly damaged tissue. Ice and cooling clay poultices are more appropriate choices in those initial stages. Once things have settled down and healing has begun, you can use a sweat to reduce edema, encourage circulation, and aid absorption of topical medication. Ask your veterinarian when it’s appropriate to start sweating—usually when there’s no obvious heat in the affected limb. Sweats are also useful for managing old injuries that have resulted in stiffened tissues, such as an old suspensory ligament injury with scarring or the thickened capsule of an arthritic joint. Keeping those areas warm and supple can prevent repeat injury and help a horse feel more comfortable, particularly at the start of exercise when core and tissue temperatures are still below optimal for maximum function and flexibility. In cases when an area is not easy to bandage, you can replace the plastic wrap and stable bandage with a neoprene boot shaped to fit the area being sweated, such as a hock or knee. Neoprene wraps are also used to sweat and reduce the throatlatch area in conformation horses to give it a cleaner appearance. When using neoprene we typically skip the DMSO because it can create excess heat to the point of skin irritation. If DMSO is an ingredient in your sweat, be sure the leg is completely dry before application because when DMSO mixes with water, a significant exothermic (heat-releasing) reaction can occur to the detriment of skin health. Also avoid using DMSO on scrapes or skin injuries. Some horses with very sensitive skin, particularly nonpigmented limbs, can be sweated effectively with just a little rubbing alcohol, plastic wrap, and a bandage. With extremely sensitive horses, place the plastic wrap over the cotton (or pillow wrap or no-bow) so it’s not directly against the skin. Nitrofurazone-based sweats will stain the skin and hair yellow, so an alcohol-based sweat might be a better choice if you’re headed for the show ring. Sweats are typically applied on a 12-hours-on, 12-hours-off schedule; however, your veterinarian might have different instructions depending on your horse’s situation. Most veterinarians make a medicated sweat for these purposes and can give you specific instructions on safe use and medication withdrawal time. Remember to wear gloves when applying a sweat to protect yourself, particularly if DMSO is an ingredient.      
    • You spoke a bit soon.  
    • Both were infielders drafted 1-1 out of High School so they are kind of the same. 🤣
    • He’s pitched 12 innings and given up 4 earned runs. WHIP is 1.05 … Probably pitching an inning per appearance.    My guess is they are trying to get him straightened out.
    • Positive, with the injury situation we desperately need one of the new starters to come in and just play well for a few starts.  Help this team get on a bit of a run and ease the starter worries for at least a few weeks.
    • I’m a bit concerned to be honest. I am not normally someone who is tough on prospects and always say to be patient. He doesn’t look to go opposite field. Then I started checking his minor league stuff and everything is pulled. Some players were able to have decent careers doing this like Kevin Miller. He has a lot of time on his side and a great group of players/coaches to help him through this. Every one of these guys struggled.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...