A final look at Mountcastle and the other AL ROY candidates

[Frobby]

Hitters:

Arazorena .274/.356/.459, 20 HR, 69 RBI in 604 PA, 131 OPS+, 4.2 rWAR

Dalbec .240/.298/.494, 25 HR 78 RBI in 417 PA, 105 OPS+, 0.2 rWAR

Franco .288/.347/.463, 7 HR 39 RBI in 308 PA, 129 OPS+, 3.5 rWAR

Garcia .243/.286/.454, 31 HR 90 RBI in 622 PA, 101 OPS+, 3.8 rWAR

Mountcastle .255/.309/.487, 33 HR, 89 RBI in 586 PA, 112 OPS+, 0.9 rWAR

Pitchers

L. Garcia, 11-8, 3.30 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 155 IP, 3.0 rWAR

Manoah 9-2, 3.22 ERA, 136 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 111.2 IP, 2.8 rWAR

There’s other guys I could list, but this is enough.  I don’t think Mountcastle finishes in the top 3 for the award despite leading AL rookies in homers and finishing second in RBI.    I think Arozarena wins it, with Luis Garcia second and Franco third.   

[Can_of_corn]

He shouldn't finish in the top 3.

I wouldn't call his season a failure but he didn't end up quite where I hoped (and I don't just mean left field). 

I noticed last season he seemed to leg out a lot of infield singles which buoyed his batting average.  This season the percentage dropped from 18.6% to 9.7% despite his soft contact rate only decreasing from 19.4% to 16.3%.  His HP to 1st time did drop from 4.35 to 4.44 but I have no idea how much a factor that was.  My guess is that he was lucky with the infield hits in 2020.

I was happy with the walk rate but he's shown more swing and miss than I was expecting for someone that was said to have superior bat to ball skills.

[Frobby]

His BA and OBP fizzled in September/October.   Overall I consider him to have had a very satisfactory rookie year, but I’d like to see his BA higher next year while maintaining or improving his walk rate and ISO.  He came along nicely on defense at 1B.   Made a really nice over the shoulder catch down the RF line on a high, twisting pop up in the final Toronto series.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His BA and OBP fizzled in September/October.   Overall I consider him to have had a very satisfactory rookie year, but I’d like to see his BA higher next year while maintaining or improving his walk rate and ISO.  He came along nicely on defense at 1B.   Made a really nice over the shoulder catch down the RF line on a high, twisting pop up in the final Toronto series.   

He also dug himself a huge hole at the start of the season.  Was nice to see him recover from that even if he didn't finish strongly.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think he’s even top 5…he certainly doesn’t deserve serious consideration to win it.

And btw, that doesn’t matter.  He had a good first full year.  Need to figure out a way to get the OBp up.

[Moose Milligan]

Yeah, after it's been broken down like that, he's not going to win it.  It was Arozarena's to lose at the beginning of the season based off what he did in the playoffs last year.  Arozarena's lucky that Wander Franco didn't get called up earlier because if he did, he'd run away with it.

Maybe Mountcastle surprises us and finishes in the top 3 but I doubt it.

[HowAboutThat]

Garcia is going to be disappointed. He had a great season and it came out of nowhere. But there are a lot of really good candidates this year. I wonder what Mountcastle’s WAR Would have been without any of that left field foolishness. Regardless, the difference between his and the front runners’ WAR Does illustrate that home runs aren’t what they used to be

[HowAboutThat]

BTW Dalbec graded out as one of the worst defenders in MLB, and at first base too!

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

BTW Dalbec graded out as one of the worst defenders in MLB, and at first base too!

And somehow the Red Sox won a lot of games and made the playoffs.  Impossible!!

[Aristotelian]

I'd put Franco 2nd. I know he didn't have as many AB's but that makes his 3.5 WAR that much more impressive.

Mountcastle had a solid year with the bat but defense matters. I still consider this year a success, about what I would have expected. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd put Franco 2nd. I know he didn't have as many AB's but that makes his 3.5 WAR that much more impressive.

Mountcastle had a solid year with the bat but defense matters. I still consider this year a success, about what I would have expected. 

The lower at bats don't bother me, I think Franco is the best player of the bunch.

[HowAboutThat]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And somehow the Red Sox won a lot of games and made the playoffs.  Impossible!!

And Vlad JR wasn’t much better. I guess if you hit well enough it can cancel out bad D. Dalbec’s .2 WAR indicated his, at least, did not.

[jamalshw]

Mountcastle's WAR feels off to me. I know he was dreadful in the OF and that pulled it down, but I'm not sure I saw him as a bad defender at 1B. I don't think he was a particularly good one, but from what I saw, he looked okay (admittedly, the dismal season caused me to tune out more than normal). 

Is anyone a stats whiz and know how we could calculate his WAR had those OF games been DH games instead? What change does that make? 

Overall, I like Mountcastle. He had a good season. He needs to be locked in at 1B and not touch an OF glove again. And he needs to work on cutting down the swing and miss (as I fear improving the walk rate is likely a bit of a taller ask). I could see him improving some and being a .850 OPS guy. And I really hope that's what he becomes. 

As for the ROY award, he'd have a much better chance with the HRs if this was the 90s. Given the age we are in and the importance of other factors, I think he's likely to finish around 5th in the voting. I could see him sneaking in at 3, but he's right along with Garcia for me, behind both pitchers and both Rays' players. 

[UMDTerrapins]

If you’re bothered by Mouncastle being so overlooked in ROY consideration, you REALLY don’t want to read this:

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

If you’re bothered by Mouncastle being so overlooked in ROY consideration, you REALLY don’t want to read this:

 

He's one of the older rookies and he's a RH 1b/dh.  It isn't surprising.