2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[hutchead]

I thought it would be interesting to keep up with all the different players who are projected by different publications for the Orioles to choose as the top draft pick in 2022. Of course some of these publications will have much more merit than others but I'll list everything I come across just for the sake of interest. Initially, here is what I see:

Elijah Green.   https://throughthefencebaseball.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-elijah-green-brooks-lee/

Brooks Lee.  http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

Terrmarr Johnson.   https://medium.com/minor-league-madhouse/2022-mlb-mock-draft-end-of-season-edition-ae9f30e87719

Druw Jones.   https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/3/a-why-so-soon-2022-mlb-mock-draft

 

[hutchead]

Got a new one:

Chase DeLauter.  https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/11/1/2022-mlb-draft-top-200-prospects

[hutchead]

Jace Jung joins the list:

https://medium.com/minor-league-madhouse/2022-mlb-mock-draft-merry-mockmas-42f886bc9183

[Can_of_corn]

No idea who those guys are.

I'm not thrilled with the the idea of Jung.  He doesn't profile as a 1-1 to me.

[RZNJ]

I'm having trouble finding a player I love at 1:1.  Let's do something that would completely shock everyone at OH.  Dylan Lesko at 1:1, with some underslot savings and use that savings to go overslot with the comp pick on Kumar Rocker.  I really like Lesko's mechanics, 3 pitch mix, mid 90's fb, 12-6 curve.  Normally I hate the risk going pitcher here but not crazy about any of the position guys.

[Ruzious]

On 1/14/2022 at 10:05 PM, Can_of_corn said:

No idea who those guys are.

I'm not thrilled with the the idea of Jung.  He doesn't profile as a 1-1 to me.

Yeah, I don't even see Jung as a top 10 guy.  Right now, I think any of Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, or Brooks Lee could be legit 1:1, but it depends on how they look this season.  

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'm having trouble finding a player I love at 1:1.  Let's do something that would completely shock everyone at OH.  Dylan Lesko at 1:1, with some underslot savings and use that savings to go overslot with the comp pick on Kumar Rocker.  I really like Lesko's mechanics, 3 pitch mix, mid 90's fb, 12-6 curve.  Normally I hate the risk going pitcher here but not crazy about any of the position guys.

Be great to see some changes to the draft and be able to trade picks.  Trading down this year would be ideal, at least it seems that way right now.

[RZNJ]

I keep watching video of these guys.  I want to like Andruw Jones because the writeups are the most attractive to me but I just can't get there.  I think I'm between Termarr Johnson and Dylan Lesko unless I see something else I haven't seen before.   I did like Brock Jones as well but another LH hitting OF, also with a weak arm, is not too exciting.

[DocJJ]

On 1/17/2022 at 10:26 PM, RZNJ said:

I'm having trouble finding a player I love at 1:1.  Let's do something that would completely shock everyone at OH.  Dylan Lesko at 1:1, with some underslot savings and use that savings to go overslot with the comp pick on Kumar Rocker.  I really like Lesko's mechanics, 3 pitch mix, mid 90's fb, 12-6 curve.  Normally I hate the risk going pitcher here but not crazy about any of the position guys.

The statistics are against you.   If you choose a HS pitcher, there is a much higher statistical chance of having nothing to show for your pick in 5 years than having something good to show for it.   (Grayson Rodriguez seems to have dodged the bullets- I don't want to jinx him!).   Even if they don't vanish entirely, they frequently don't become what people hope for- like Dylan Bundy....

 

Statistically, you'd have a good chance of landing at least a solid every day player if you go with a position player in top 3.  I think Termarr Johnson is as safe a bet as anyone in the draft.   Jacob Berry may be the safest college bat, though he may be a first baseman, but the bat is as safe as it gets....  

[RZNJ]

I agree.  It's very risky.  Probably not a good risk but the idea of the upside and increasing our pitching talent was/is a very tantalizing idea.  

[Sports Guy]

Too much hitting talent to go HS pitcher with the first pick.  That’s just not a smart idea.  
 

Otoh, I don’t want a lower ceiling college bat either.  I would take the high upside HS pitcher over that.

But they should go high end pitching talent with the next pick…provided that it’s not a big step down from whatever hitting is available.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Too much hitting talent to go HS pitcher with the first pick.  That’s just not a smart idea.  
 

Otoh, I don’t want a lower ceiling college bat either.  I would take the high upside HS pitcher over that.

But they should go high end pitching talent with the next pick…provided that it’s not a big step down from whatever hitting is available.

Let's just say I'm skeptical of a lot of these hitters.  

[OriolesMagic83]

I like Druw Jones a lot, and he seems like the safest, high upside pick.  Elijah Green seems to have a high upside too, but a large chance of bust too?  30% SO rate for a high school prospect?  I wonder if Elias will go with a college bat if he thinks the talent level is similar for the top picks,  The reason being that the player would get to the majors quicker and help the team win quicker. 

[Sports Guy]

I am usually in the school of thought that if you draft high, you have to hit on the pick, so even if you go with a lesser ceiling, higher floor guy, so be it.

For this draft, I want that huge pick.  If they bust, they bust but go for that most elite talent you believe is in the draft and see if you can hit a home run on acquiring a HOF level talent.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I am usually in the school of thought that if you draft high, you have to hit on the pick, so even if you go with a lesser ceiling, higher floor guy, so be it.

For this draft, I want that huge pick.  If they bust, they bust but go for that most elite talent you believe is in the draft and see if you can hit a home run on acquiring a HOF level talent.

There is so much context though.  Elijah Green probably has the highest upside but I doubt that you are actually advocating him for the top pick.

 

Most evaluators seem to feel that Green is the most talented high upside player in this draft.