The problem with extending Mancini

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Santander is unlikely to be an Oriole in 2023, Neustrom is probably a longshot to be anything more than a solid-if-unspectacular platoon guy, and Kjerstad has not even taken his first professional at-bat yet.

It's also pretty clearly a significant oversimplification of the argument(s) I made, but congratulations on pwning the heck out of that strawman I guess 

Funny how that wasn't all that I said.

But whatever man.

 

[HowAboutThat]

I have not yet read your comment, but I can chime in that extensions in general are bad ideas, except under very special circumstances, none of which apply here. So don’t extend him.

Once that claptrap is out-of-the-way, we can discuss whether to trade him, which is also a fruitless discussion. Mike would trade his grandmother if the return were good, so nobody in the organization is “off the table,” although for some of the players we have, the cost would be so high as to make that essentially true.

So give him a contract, take him to arbitration so that you pay him as a little as possible, and then play him until you trade him. End of discussion.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Why would any other team trade assets for a 30+ 1B/DH?

The idea that the O's can sign a guy to a deal and when they no longer want him expect another team to trade assets to acquire that player seems wishful thinking.

I think someone could definitely trade for him but thinking it makes him more marketable if you extend him is just dumb.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

In 2023, at any price is Trey a Top 4 performer in a 1B/LF/RF/DH group with Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Cowser, Stowers, Neustrom, Kjerstad?

Probably a better chance than most would say. He was one of the best 30 hitters in MLB in 2019.  
 

He certainly can be an 800+ OPS guy for a few more years.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think someone could definitely trade for him but thinking it makes him more marketable if you extend him is just dumb.

The odds of the O's making a trade in which the other team gives up actual value and the Orioles don't send any money with Mancini are not good.

Odds are better that Mancini's extension ends up in the red and the O's have to deal with it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The odds of the O's making a trade in which the other team gives up actual value and the Orioles don't send any money with Mancini are not good.

Odds are better that Mancini's extension ends up in the red and the O's have to deal with it.

Well how are you defining actual value?

I wouldn’t be surprised if you could get similar guys like you got in the Bundy deal (not likely as many players but just those types of guys).  There is value in a deal like that.

[drjohnnyfeva]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I hope Mancini bets on himself and tests free agency, and I maintain the Os will simply ride out this final year and wish him the best. 

This is what I think is gonna happen too.  There are a lot of fans who look at him as a hometown guy, especially after his cancer battle and sort of because of it too.  I hope he has a year that he can parlay that value into a nice contract where he can play with a contender for a while.  But I think little attention is going to be paid to the likely exit by most.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well how are you defining actual value?

I wouldn’t be surprised if you could get similar guys like you got in the Bundy deal (not likely as many players but just those types of guys).  There is value in a deal like that.

I define actual value as projecting to produce at the ML level beyond what is readily available on the waiver wire.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how that wasn't all that I said.

Well since we'll have Adley and G-Rod as the faces of the franchise, I guess we can trade Cedric and Means and Mountcastle for a couple bags of balls since fans won't care about them anymore. 

Hey, this strawmanning stuff is pretty fun actually!

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably a better chance than most would say. He was one of the best 30 hitters in MLB in 2019.  

I agree. A lot of people seem to forget that he put up a .826 OPS/120 OPS+ in 2017 as well. He's hardly a one hit wonder.

[UMDTerrapins]

I like Mancini, and I think he's got good years ahead of him. But with Rutschman needing 1B/DH to stay in the lineup when he isn't catching, and Mountcastle already splitting time between 1B/DH, Mancini just seems like a poor fit going forward. My hope is he starts the season on fire and nets us a useful prospect at the deadline. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I define actual value as projecting to produce at the ML level beyond what is readily available on the waiver wire.

 

Ok..I think that’s a very broad definition that has a lot of issues with it.  I mean, you could get a top 100 prospect that has a good projection and they never develop and you can end up with a guy like Bradish, who wasn’t looked at as much of a prospect and all of a sudden, he’s a good prospect.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Well since we'll have Adley and G-Rod as the faces of the franchise, I guess we can trade Cedric and Means and Mountcastle for a couple bags of balls since fans won't care about them anymore. 

Hey, this strawmanning stuff is pretty fun actually!

I agree. A lot of people seem to forget that he put up a .826 OPS/120 OPS+ in 2017 as well. He's hardly a one hit wonder.

You were trying to say that the O's needed to spend money on an extension for "continuity for the average fan".  Balderdash.

The casual fan is going to get drowned in Adley and Grayson hype. 

And yes, he might be worth the contract in any given year.  But he wasn't worth 10M in 2021 and he wasn't in 2018. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok..I think that’s a very broad definition that has a lot of issues with it.  I mean, you could get a top 100 prospect that has a good projection and they never develop and you can end up with a guy like Bradish, who wasn’t looked at as much of a prospect and all of a sudden, he’s a good prospect.

That's my definition. 

Someone like Diaz might very well turn into nothing but he projected to be something before the O's got a hold of him.  So I'd consider him actual value at the time of the trade. 

I wouldn't have considered Baby Yaz actual value at the time of the Herb trade and he's had a nice career.

It's baseball, sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't.  It's about the process.

I don't think it's good process to extend someone like Mancini.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's my definition. 

Someone like Diaz might very well turn into nothing but he projected to be something before the O's got a hold of him.  So I'd consider him actual value at the time of the trade. 

I wouldn't have considered Baby Yaz actual value at the time of the Herb trade and he's had a nice career.

It's baseball, sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't.  It's about the process.

I don't think it's good process to extend someone like Mancini.

Yea I don’t see any reason to extend him.  A lot of people want to extend him because he battled cancer.  That’s really not smart.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yea I don’t see any reason to extend him.  A lot of people want to extend him because he battled cancer.  That’s really not smart.

I'm not a fan of unquantifiable value.