Trade Cabrera NOW!!!

[33rdst]

The attraction to Cabrera, and rightly so IMO, is his K rate. Man if somone could harness that he's at the top of your rotation. If you trade him, be prepared to take a lot of grief if he gets it together.

Guthrie IMO is an outstanding pitcher. Perhaps, as defined by DIPS, he doesn't have the potential Cabrera has but he could still be a very good number two or three pitcher. There were a lot of outstanding pitchers who weren't dominant strike out pitchers but were perennial All Stars. Key, Pettite,Saberhagen, McNally, the list goes on and on. Not everyone has the stuff of a Johnson, Clemens, or even Cabrera but that doesn't mean they can't be very successful.

[Mackus]

Is it possible that he is below league average because he constantly has batters down 0-2 and 1-2 and they are having to put balls in to play on pitcher's pitches? Is it possible that he is causing hitters to have a low BABIP off of him?

No, it is not.

Even the best pitchers are usually right around the league average in BABIP, and if they aren't, they'll tend to revert back to the norm the next season. It is certainly possible to have even an entire season where your BABIP is particularly higher or lower than what is expected, but almost always it comes back towards the expected value, which is about league average. Of course if a team has a particularly good or bad defense the BABIP will shift either up or down, so an even better number to compare it to would be the Orioles team BABIP, although I have no idea what that is.

[Mackus]

Guthrie IMO is an outstanding pitcher. Perhaps, as defined by DIPS, he doesn't have the potential Cabrera has but he could still be a very good number two or three pitcher. There were a lot of outstanding pitchers who weren't dominant strike out pitchers but were perennial All Stars. Key, Pettite,Saberhagen, McNally, the list goes on and on. Not everyone has the stuff of a Johnson, Clemens, or even Cabrera but that doesn't mean they can't be very successful.

More important that striking out a lot of guys is just having a good K/BB ratio. If he keeps walking 1.5-2 guys per 9 IP, Guthrie won't have to strike out a lot of people to remain effective.

[Sports Guy]

Is it possible that he is below league average because he constantly has batters down 0-2 and 1-2 and they are having to put balls in to play on pitcher's pitches? Is it possible that he is causing hitters to have a low BABIP off of him?

Why would he be the only starter though?

BABIP like his aren't normal..yea, they may happen every once in a while but most pitchers fall in the 270-310 range, regardless of stuff.

He is well below that.

[mweb]

All i want is for it to be in the league average area.

That's all.

He is well below league average right now.

I get that you want his BABIP to be league average for evaluation purposes, but it still doesn't really make sense. You shouldn't root for him to be giving up hits. There are plenty of stats that normalize his BABIP for you, you can evaluate him on that if you think his BABIP is all luck. And the better he does, even with luck, his trade value increases.

[33rdst]

More important that striking out a lot of guys is just having a good K/BB ratio. If he keeps walking 1.5-2 guys per 9 IP, Guthrie won't have to strike out a lot of people to remain effective.

You're absolutely right plus his WHIP 1.00. That's very very good.

[Mackus]

I get that you want his BABIP to be league average for evaluation purposes, but it still doesn't really make sense. You shouldn't root for him to be giving up hits. There are plenty of stats that normalize his BABIP for you, you can evaluate him on that if you think his BABIP is all luck. And the better he does, even with luck, his trade value increases.

Yeah I thought that was funny as well. I'd love it for him to keep his BABIP in the .230s, but I'm gonna evaluate him assuming it will drop back down to a .280 or so level.

[Fairfax Bird]

Why would he be the only starter though?

BABIP like his aren't normal..yea, they may happen every once in a while but most pitchers fall in the 270-310 range, regardless of stuff.

He is well below that.

What does that mean? His command has been so awesome that he is constantly ahead, leading to hitters just trying to put the ball in play, leading to a lot of outs. When his command comes back to earth somewhat, then he will fall behind and be hit harder and his BABIP will go up. But he does have some control over BABIP. He's been lucky, but it also has a lot to do with his command.

[Mackus]

Watch him and he is always ahead. When pitchers pitch ahead hitters batting averages go down.

Yeah, because they strike out, which isn't accounted for in BABIP.

I'm not sure if there is a breakdown of league average BABIP as a function of count, but my guess would be that they're all pretty similar. I wouldn't be surprised if the hitters counts and pitchers counts will have some variance, but not enough to justify his BABIP being about 50 points below league average. He's not ahead in the count often enough for it to make that drastic of a difference.

[Fairfax Bird]

Yeah, because they strike out, which isn't accounted for in BABIP.

I'm not sure if there is a breakdown of league average BABIP as a function of count, but my guess would be that they're all pretty similar. I wouldn't be surprised if the hitters counts and pitchers counts will have some variance, but not enough to justify his BABIP being about 50 points below league average. He's not ahead in the count often enough for it to make that drastic of a difference.

Fair enough point, 50 points is a lot, but I am willing to bet he is ahead enough in the count to make some difference in his BABIP.

[Sports Guy]

I get that you want his BABIP to be league average for evaluation purposes, but it still doesn't really make sense. You shouldn't root for him to be giving up hits. There are plenty of stats that normalize his BABIP for you, you can evaluate him on that if you think his BABIP is all luck. And the better he does, even with luck, his trade value increases.

Yea, that is what it is all about.

I hope everyone gets that.

I am talking about his long term projection.

And if i felt the Orioles would trade him Mweb, i would be on board with this post but i don't think there is a chance in hell of that.

[gamiliel]

You don't trade him! You sign Zambrano and next year you have a top 4 that can give you over 800 innings (guthrie, Z, Bedard, DCab). That makes your bullpen that much better. That is how you win. You can always find offense-well, ok our FO can't, but most can!

[Sports Guy]

You don't trade him! You sign Zambrano and next year you have a top 4 that can give you over 800 innings (guthrie, Z, Bedard, DCab). That makes your bullpen that much better. That is how you win. You can always find offense-well, ok our FO can't, but most can!

Signing Zambrano is a really bad idea.

[mweb]

Yea, that is what it is all about.

I hope everyone gets that.

I am talking about his long term projection.

And if i felt the Orioles would trade him Mweb, i would be on board with this post but i don't think there is a chance in hell of that.

But still, you don't need his BABIP to go up to evaluate him as if his BABIP was normal. There are stats that do that for you, and you do use them.

So that motive doesn't really fly. Maybe you want his BABIP to go up to help support your side of the Guthrie debate, that's the only thing I can think of that makes sense.

[Sports Guy]

But still, you don't need his BABIP to go up to evaluate him as if his BABIP was normal. There are stats that do that for you, and you do use them.

So that motive doesn't really fly. Maybe you want his BABIP to go up to help support your side of the Guthrie debate, that's the only thing I can think of that makes sense.

A big problem for Guthrie in the past has been confidence.

He has apparently had trouble with adversity in the past.

So, let's say his walk rate stays around what it has been this month?(now, that is 3.5...i am thinking he can be more around 3)...And let's also say he gives up another 2-3 hits per 9 IP(that puts him around 8-9 hits per 9 IP, which is still very good)...So overall, we are talking another 3-5 base runners per 9 IP than he has allowed for most of the season.

If he does those things and continues to have his HR rate creep up(which is should), how does he handle that adversity? Does his confidence get shaken or is he past that stuff?

To be honest, it amazes me this was ever an issue it him...Just doesn't seem like this should be a problem but it was and maybe still is?