Some early OPS projections are out already

[NJOriolesFan]

Since he gave up switch-hitting last year and his prior Lefty/Righty splits seem to indicate a slash line around .280/.340/.450 with good speed and defense and a likely 20/20 guy while not quite being a 30/30 guy every year.  Entering the age 27 season with those kind of numbers with a chance of having the upside of last year.  Better chance he falls somewhere in between.

As far as what we could look for coming back would be interesting.  There are playoff potential teams that could use a centerfielder.  Centerfield is not great across the board in MLB.  We need pitching and infielders.  If we can "assume" Mayo, Cowser and Stowers are on the cusp and Rutschman is basically there, Hays can play centerfield and Mancini/Mountcastle can play 1b/dh.  We need 2b and ss.  I think the Mets could use a guy like Mullins.  Do they matchup?  

 

[SilverRocket]

4 hours ago, NJOriolesFan said:

Hays can play centerfield 

This is the part I'm not sure about anymore. Hays' sprint speed dropped to 58th percentile in 2021, from 76 in 2020 and 86 in 2019. Injuries probably have a lot to do with it but I'm not sure he has the speed for CF anymore.

The Mullins OPS looks a bit low in these projections and I'd be surprised if the algorithm's aware of his switch-hitting change. He had a normal left-right split last year and a really severe one in previous years.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Remember, those projections usually take the last three years into consideration. Obviously Mullins was a different guy when he went to hitting all left-handed last year so take those projections of him with a giant gain of salt. 

His EV last year was 51% percentile, while his max EV was at 67%. His xwOBA was at 68% while his xBA and xSLG were at 78% and 62% respectively. Add in his 86% sprint speed and 96% OOA on defense, and I think it all bodes well for him to repeat his breakout year. 

 

Everyone needs to remember what Marcel is: the simplest possible system.  It takes the last 3-4 years, weights them in order of newest to oldest, might throw in a pinch of aging, and that's pretty much it.  Tango designed it to be as simple as possible, so that if you design a more complicated system and the average error is worse than Marcel your system ain't too swift.  Marcel most certainly does not take into account that Mullins stopped switch hitting or anything else like that.

[Frobby]

This now shows Marcel/Steamer/ZiPS and adds Odor:

Mullins .801/.762/.783

Mountcastle .793/.793/.797

Mancini .790/.783/.818

Hays .765/.762/.771

Urias .761/.727/.728

Santander .751/.761/.762

Stewart .706/.729/.751

Mateo .695/.654/.667

Odor .691/.698/.723

Jones .669/.674/.660

McKenna .663/.676/.686

Gutierrez .661/.693/.634

Rutschman —-/.787/.797

Stowers —-/.750/.734

No real outliers there    I like that ZiPS is pretty bullish on Stewart, would have value at .751 OPS, and all three systems have McKenna gaining 100+ OPS points, which still leaves him sub-.700 but sort of on the edge of good enough for a backup OF who is mostly going to be a defensive replacement/pinch runner.   With Stowers at .750/.734 that’s a plausible trio of backups   

 

[Frobby]

Now the same with the pitchers, and throwing in Lyles:

Sulser 3.71/4.25/.3.94

Means 3.88/4.46/4.35

T. Wells 4.17/4.27/4.92

Scott 4.19/3.58/3.73

Tate 4.29/4.24/4.37

Zimmermann 4.60/4.85/5.46

Lowther 4.72/4.90/5.22

Fry 4.75/3.94/4.24

Baumann 4.80/5.21/5.40

A. Wells 4.88/5.22/5.49

Lyles 4.97/5.50/5.75

Akin 5.23/4.95/5.06

Kremer 5.28/5.04/5.64

Lopez 5.48/3.93/5.24

G. Rodriguez —-/4.67/4.59

ZiPS has the highest of the three ERA projections for T. Wells, Zimmermann, Lowther, Baumann, A. Wells, Lyles and Kremer.   They aren’t the low on anyone listed above except GrayRod, who Marcel didn’t project.  Unfortunately, I think the ZiPS projections are probably closer to reality.  

[Brooks The Great]

On 11/9/2021 at 2:45 PM, NJOriolesFan said:

Since he gave up switch-hitting last year and his prior Lefty/Righty splits seem to indicate a slash line around .280/.340/.450 with good speed and defense and a likely 20/20 guy while not quite being a 30/30 guy every year.  Entering the age 27 season with those kind of numbers with a chance of having the upside of last year.  Better chance he falls somewhere in between.

As far as what we could look for coming back would be interesting.  There are playoff potential teams that could use a centerfielder.  Centerfield is not great across the board in MLB.  We need pitching and infielders.  If we can "assume" Mayo, Cowser and Stowers are on the cusp and Rutschman is basically there, Hays can play centerfield and Mancini/Mountcastle can play 1b/dh.  We need 2b and ss.  I think the Mets could use a guy like Mullins.  Do they matchup?  

 

 

Mayo is much further away than Stowers and Cowser. Jordan Westburg is a lot closer to the bigs than Mayo, which makes sense, because Westburg's much older.

[Frobby]

One interesting projection I didn’t list was Drew Rom at a 4.85 ERA.  Lower than several pitchers expected to compete for a rotation spot this spring, and lower that DL Hall.   Pretty aggressive projection for a guy who’s only thrown 40 innings in AA.

Here’s an interesting statistical comparison:

Rom in AA: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

Hall in AA: 31.2 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 15.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9

Rom career: 233.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Hall career: 217.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9.    

Hall is much tougher to hit (6.1 H/9 vs. 7.6 for Rom), and misses more bats, but Rom does pretty well in those categories and walks half as many batters.   Perhaps Rom is a bit underrated, but that will probably remain the case unless he proves it in the majors, because his velocity is a tick below average.   
 

[emmett16]

What does a 2.24 WHIP & 5.1 BB/9 look like vs. MLB hitters?   I'm going to pump the brakes on expecting much from Hall.  Granted, I haven't seen him pitch (in person) yet and a Randy Johnson comp is exciting, but it seems like a lot will need to go right for him to have success.  He's going to be fantastic or absolutely awful.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One interesting projection I didn’t list was Drew Rom at a 4.85 ERA.  Lower than several pitchers expected to compete for a rotation spot this spring, and lower that DL Hall.   Pretty aggressive projection for a guy who’s only thrown 40 innings in AA.

Here’s an interesting statistical comparison:

Rom in AA: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

Hall in AA: 31.2 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 15.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9

Rom career: 233.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Hall career: 217.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9.    

Hall is much tougher to hit (6.1 H/9 vs. 7.6 for Rom), and misses more bats, but Rom does pretty well in those categories and walks half as many batters.   Perhaps Rom is a bit underrated, but that will probably remain the case unless he proves it in the majors, because his velocity is a tick below average.   
 

FYI, you made a typo on Hall's career WHIP, I think you meant to type 1.24 for his career WHIP and not 2.24. Makes quite the difference. 

[waroriole]

33 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

FYI, you made a typo on Hall's career WHIP, I think you meant to type 1.24 for his career WHIP and not 2.24. Makes quite the difference. 

He’d be quite the Houdini to have a 2.24 WHIP and a 2.94 ERA. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One interesting projection I didn’t list was Drew Rom at a 4.85 ERA.  Lower than several pitchers expected to compete for a rotation spot this spring, and lower that DL Hall.   Pretty aggressive projection for a guy who’s only thrown 40 innings in AA.

Here’s an interesting statistical comparison:

Rom in AA: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

Hall in AA: 31.2 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 15.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9

Rom career: 233.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Hall career: 217.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9.    

Hall is much tougher to hit (6.1 H/9 vs. 7.6 for Rom), and misses more bats, but Rom does pretty well in those categories and walks half as many batters.   Perhaps Rom is a bit underrated, but that will probably remain the case unless he proves it in the majors, because his velocity is a tick below average.   
 

If I had to bet, I think it is more likely Rom becomes a ML starter than Hall.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

If I had to bet, I think it is more likely Rom becomes a ML starter than Hall.

Technically speaking I agree.  I think Rom is more likely to make at least one start in the majors than Hall is.

You change the threshold to say 30 starts, and I think it's Hall.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Technically speaking I agree.  I think Rom is more likely to make at least one start in the majors than Hall is.

You change the threshold to say 30 starts, and I think it's Hall.

I actually think the more you stretch out the minimum, the more likely it is Rom and not Hall that will reach them.

Now, that isn't to say I prefer Rom as a prospect, because you have to take the immense upside of Hall.

But I am quite bullish on Rom, and put an Eduardo Rodriguez comp on him, and I have a hard time seeing Hall consistently pitching 180 innings a year.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I actually think the more you stretch out the minimum, the more likely it is Rom and not Hall that will reach them.

Now, that isn't to say I prefer Rom as a prospect, because you have to take the immense upside of Hall.

But I am quite bullish on Rom, and put an Eduardo Rodriguez comp on him, and I have a hard time seeing Hall consistently pitching 180 innings a year.

I'm the opposite.  I see Rom as a guy that's going to at some point get called up to make a few starts and soak some innings but who doesn't have the raw "stuff" to have much of a ML career.  I think Hall has a better chance to whiff entirely or get moved to the pen but if he does make it as a starter I think he can make a real career out of it.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm the opposite.  I see Rom as a guy that's going to at some point get called up to make a few starts and soak some innings but who doesn't have the raw "stuff" to have much of a ML career.  I think Hall has a better chance to whiff entirely or get moved to the pen but if he does make it as a starter I think he can make a real career out of it.

Fair enough.  I think I am higher on Rom than anyone else.